Goal Line Stand: Week 14 Rankings

Updated 12/11 at 7:10 ET. Added Willie Snead, Eddie Royal and Travis Benjamin. Re-arranged RBs in the 16-21 range. Moved C.J. Spiller and Tim Hightower up. Added Greg Zuerlein and Maxx Williams. 

Antonio Brown is the WR1 over the past five weeks. Odell Beckham, the WR3. Sandwiched in between them? Doug Baldwin, who’s caught 24 passes for 433 yards and six touchdowns since Seattle’s Week 9 bye. Baldwin’s stunning surge has him as the WR12 by total points on the season. He’s a more modest WR20 by average points, but Baldwin has vaulted from afterthought to going consideration.

The question is, how seriously should we take him? It’s pretty clear Baldwin isn’t going to be an every-week WR1, let alone a top-five option. He’s produced his post-bye week line on a modest 31 targets. That’s 7.75 game, enough to be a weekly factor, but not enough to crash the top 12. But Baldwin is seeing the ball more. He averaged just four weekly looks in Games 1-8. It stands to reason that the Seahawks came out of their bye week committed to getting Baldwin more involved.  

Then there’s the matter of Jimmy Graham’s season-ending knee injury. Maybe you thought Baldwin’s Weeks 10 and 11 were little more than lucky sequencing, but it’s not as if Graham’s lost targets will vanish. They have to go somewhere, and there’s ample reason to believe it will be to Baldwin, who’s sparked the Seahawks’ offense along with Thomas Rawls and Russell Wilson. Even if you remain dubious on Baldwin’s long-term outlook, you can’t ignore his Week 14 prospects. As hot as any player in football, he gets a Ravens defense allowing the fourth most fantasy points to wideouts. That’s a wave begging to be ridden for the first week of the playoffs.       

Week 14 Quarterbacks

QB Notes: Ben Roethlisberger doesn’t have the best matchup for Week 14, but matchups haven’t mattered for Big Ben. Even if you include his injury-shortened affairs, Ben is averaging 338 weekly yards. That number skyrockets to 400 since he returned from his foot issue three games ago. That includes a Week 10 game against the Browns where he didn’t expect to play, and a Week 12 visit to Seattle. Roethlisberger’s worst start of the season came against the Bengals in Week 8, but he was returning from a five-week absence. Sunday should be a different story. … Coming off the third most fantasy points by any quarterback this season, Cam Newton get a Falcons pass defense that’s imposing on paper, but one that’s faced only one top-10 fantasy quarterback on the year (Drew Brees). Newton will have all day to throw against a team that doesn’t have a pass rush. … The only player approaching Ben Roethlisberger when it comes to big plays is Carson Palmer. Facing a Vikings defense missing four starters — FS Harrison Smith, SLB Anthony Barr, NT Linval Joseph and SS Andrew Sendejo — on a short week, Palmer’s only concern is that the Cardinals get up too big, too early.    

The No. 1 overall player over the past three weeks, Russell Wilson gets a Ravens defense allowing the 11th most fantasy points to quarterbacks. East coast road trips are rarely a picnic for the Seahawks, but you shouldn’t expect an off day from a quarterback whose touchdown rate has finally regressed to the mean. … The QB8 on the year, Andy Dalton has posted multiple scores in 9-of-12 starts, including his past three. He’ll get two touchdowns in his sleep against Pittsburgh’s shaky pass defense. … Tom Brady kept his head above water without Rob Gronkowski in Week 13, but received an assist from the Eagles losing focus late. Brady has completed just 52.5 percent of his throws over his past three starts, and twice posted a QB rating below 75.0. He’ll have his hands full on the road against J.J. Watt, not to mention his ex-play caller Bill O’Brien. … Coming off easily his best game as an NFLer, Blake Bortles gets an increasingly banged up Colts defense that’s allowed the seventh most fantasy points to enemy quarterbacks. He’ll also be getting Allen Hurns (concussion) back opposite Allen Robinson. Arguably no quarterback boasts a more imposing red zone trio than Robinson, Julius Thomas and Hurns.

Editor’s Note: Finish your FanDuel NFL season strong. Try RotoGrinders.com’s Incentives premium content free for 7 days. This package will give you exclusive picks, projections and strategy from top-ranked experts so you can gain an edge in your daily fantasy games. Give Incentives a try risk-free for one week and learn from the best. Start your free trial now. 

Aaron Rodgers’ Week 13 would have been his second straight one-score start if not for a 61-yard Hail Mary. Only the Seahawks and Broncos have allowed fewer passing touchdowns than the Cowboys (12). Rodgers is unlikely to snap his ever-deepening slump. … It’s good enough that Jameis Winston is facing the Saints’ historically-bad defense. It’s even better that he’ll be doing it with New Orleans’ No. 1 CB Delvin Breaux (hamstring) likely on the sideline. Winston has only four multi-score performances, but he won’t be slowed by a defense that’s gotten absolutely torched by the likes of Kirk Cousins and Marcus Mariota over the past month. Winston is an eminently-safe streamer for the first week of the fantasy playoffs. … The Dolphins got a one-game reprieve from Matt Schaub, but got ripped by Ryan Fitzpatrick and Tony Romo the two preceding weeks. The good Eli Manning should show up in South Beach. … Drew Brees’ home/road splits are starker than ever, with only six of his 23 scores coming away from the Superdome. The Bucs are far from a shutdown matchup, but did hold Brees to his worst home start in Week 2. He won’t be going wild on the road.

Tyrod Taylor is hard to figure. He offers one of the highest ceilings in fantasy football, but also one of the lowest floors. For Week 14, he gets his defensive equivalent. The Eagles were playing surprisingly good defense before getting dismantled for 90 combined points in Weeks 11 and 12. Then, out of nowhere, they harassed Tom Brady last Sunday. Who’s going to show up in Buffalo? It’s a question that leaves Taylor on the outer fringes of QB1 status. … The QB4 over the past three weeks, Ryan Fitzpatrick has been playing great ball, but gets the Titans’ decent pass defense. Tennessee just got shredded by Blake Bortles, of course, but on the whole, only eight teams have allowed fewer yards through the air. … Marcus Mariota is coming off one of the best games by any quarterback this season, but has a tough road matchup in the Jets. His outlook will improve significantly if Darrelle Revis (concussion) misses his third straight game. … Matthew Stafford is the QB5 over the past three weeks, but has thrown for more than two touchdowns just twice all year. A red letter day is unlikely in St. Louis.

It’s the opening week of the fantasy playoffs. The question is, do you stream Johnny Manziel? The last time Manziel was on the field, he had arguably his best NFL start, albeit in a 30-9 loss. A 49ers team allowing the sixth most passing yards is not a concerning home matchup, but especially with No. 1 receiver Travis Benjamin looking doubtful with a shoulder injury, there simply aren’t enough compelling reasons to force Manziel into your lineup with everything on the line. It’s a different story in DFS, where Manziel offers rock-bottom cheap upside for tournaments. … The matchup is tough for Derek Carr, but a quarterback who’s posted at least two scores in 9-of-12 starts remains a QB2 for the first week of the fantasy playoffs. … Missing just about every single one of his receivers, Philip Rivers is barely a QB2 for a tough road trip to Kansas City. … Now vote of confidence’d in back-to-back weeks, Matt Ryan has more than one score in only one of his past four starts. There’s little reason to trust him on the road against the Panthers’ elite defense. … Brock Osweiler has a nice matchup, but hasn’t demonstrated enough upside to be fired up as a plug-and-play QB2 or DFS option.

Don’t forget, for the latest on everything NFL, check out Rotoworld’s Player News, or follow @Rotoworld_FB or @RotoPat on Twitter.

This entry passed through the Full-Text RSS service – if this is your content and you’re reading it on someone else’s site, please read the FAQ at fivefilters.org/content-only/faq.php#publishers.