Weekly Picks: Fuzzy Logic: Week 16 Rankings

Perhaps I have built a reputation for being an eternal pessimist but I want to clarify one thing: I am an optimist before the gameweek begins and only a pessimist when it has concluded. Basically, I am human and I play fantasy sports. Even if ten starters in my FPL lineup produce, I will look at the eleventh player and go “Hey, what gives?” Yes, I am talking to you, Hector Bellerin.

I made many good calls in the rankings last week. When I say “good calls”, I do not mean ranking Mesut Ozil as a solid play – that is pretty much a known quantity for anyone with a laptop and a pulse at this point – but more like having the nerve to rank two “budget” Watford forwards in the top five at their position. Yes, Deeney and Ighalo merit being ranked, but to rank them as a tandem ahead of the likes of Harry Kane, Olivier Giroud and some other “big name, big club, big price tag” players takes some confidence feeling that the production is legit, despite the “small name, small club, small price tag” label.

However, when a week ends and I look back on my predictions, I spend much less time heaping praise on myself for good calls and much more time beating myself up on calls that went bad. The outcome of the Chelsea v Bournemouth match, as much as it pleased me from a reality standpoint, really had me miserable from a fantasy angle. I really thought Chelsea were going to finally show the class that made them champions last season. At home, against a promoted side riddled with injuries and a miniscule payroll, THIS was the week the Blues were going to make things right.

Wrong.

I did well to ignore ranking Diego Costa as I correctly assumed he would start from the bench again, but that only increased my expectations for Eden Hazard, who I ranked as the top choice among all midfielders last week. I very nearly brought him into my FPL team for a points hit, with the idea of giving him the armband to capitalize on what I thought could be a monster haul. I even touted Branislav Ivanovic enough to make him the cover photo for last week’s column. Now to be fair, if you watched that match, Ivanovic was heavily involved in the attack, put some dangerous crosses in, and should have gotten a clean sheet as the one goal from the Cherries came from a player that showed to be offside.

I scoff at many a quote uttered by Jose Mourinho, and this season has been filled with scoff-able quotes. He seems to want to cast blame on anything but poor performances (and perhaps management) to rationalize how badly the Blues are doing this season. This week, as he has on multiple occasions in this term, he made a point to say that the club was “unlucky”. It isn’t easy for me to do, but regarding the Bournemouth match, I am going to have to agree with him. And I think those that follow the league agree as well. I mean, there really hasn’t been an uptick in rumors of sacking The Special One this week. Considering how poor they have been, then to lose at home to Bournemouth, you would think that would be a catalyst for more pressure on Mourinho, but it hasn’t.

It won’t get any easier for Mourinho when he faces table-leading Leicester in front of the entire planet on Monday night. Even if Chelsea play better than their average selves, it is going to be tough for them to get a positive result. But remember folks, this is the Premier League. Expect the unexpected.

That is why sometimes I go against the grain when compiling these rankings. It isn’t always about what to expect tomorrow based strictly on what just happened yesterday. The league and performances do not so simply swing back and forth like a pendulum. It is more like a raindrop on your car window, when it ceases to stay put and begins to travel in a zigzag fashion downward. You know the general area where the droplet will wind up, but the path it takes to get there is a chaotic one. Now, let’s take a glimpse at this week’s fixture list before I spew out another bizarre metaphor:

Week 16 Fixtures

Norwich City v Everton

Crystal Palace v Southampton

Manchester City v Swansea City

Sunderland v Watford

West Ham United v Stoke City

AFC Bournemouth v Manchester United

Aston Villa v Arsenal

Liverpool v West Bromwich Albion

Tottenham v Newcastle United

Leicester City v Chelsea

Injuries are spreading throughout the league like an epidemic and apparently the virus was found a host in last week’s Manchester United v West Ham United tilt. Since that game, the Red Devils have suffered multiple injuries to their defense while the Hammers have had the same misfortune hit their attack, oh and Winston Reid. For that reason, neither are looking good as a club for fantasy investment against their respective opponents this week. Man City on the other hand look to have put the egg they laid against Stoke behind them with a positive result midweek in Champions League as they host Swansea City who have just sacked their manager. Speaking of Champions League, respect to Arsenal for being behind the eight ball early on in their group only to bounce back big with a win in Greece and advance despite their injury issues. If they build off the momentum of that win rather than rest on their laurels – look out last place Aston Villa. If looking for a team to back with the most confidence though, it has to be Spurs. As mentioned just moments ago, expect the unexpected in this league, but for Newcastle to get a positive result against a solid club for two weeks straight would be the “unexpected unexpected”. It’s like a double negative in grammar, it cancels itself out. Three points to Spurs for sure after doing more drawing than gunslinger at high noon.

What follows are my top picks at each position. It doesn’t matter what format you play, these rankings will help you figure out how players at each position compare with one another, and can help you on transfer decisions in the FPL.com game, who to start or bench in draft leagues, and who is worth putting up the cash for in salary-based leagues. You will also see how I have begun to highlight prospects that are especially valuable in formats like Playtogga, Fantrax and DFS, so that they are given the credit they deserve. At the end of the day though, nothing gets the points flowing more than goals, assists and clean sheets. So without further ado, let’s get cracking…

GOALKEEPERS

Hugo Lloris – Even taking Newcastle’s surprising result against Liverpool last week, I’m not buying it as a trend. The Magpies have shown some attacking flair from Wijnaldum and company before, only to regress quickly. Tottenham are still a defense to be reckoned with.

Simon Mignolet – In the calendar year of 2015, no other keeper has kept more clean sheets than Mignolet, which may surprise some folks. I see the Reds bouncing back from last week’s loss and are a good bet to keep out the Baggies.

Jack Butland – This kid is something special and he is helping Stoke to many a clean sheet whilst collecting saves on the way. On the road, but to a Hammers side now missing Payet, Lanzini and Moses. Have faith again in FPL’s top scoring keeper.

Petr Cech – Arsenal should be feeling confident after their Champions League exploits. They travel to last place Villa this week and are another good choice to back for a clean sheet with the veteran Cech between the sticks.

Costel Pantilimon – Since Sam Allardyce has taken over, the Black Cats have conceded just once in three league games at the Stadium of Light. The human oak tree that is Pantilimon is tops in the FPL form guide at the moment and though Watford have scored consistently, I think he will at worst concede once and get a save point or two. David de Gea would have cracked the Top 5 and kept the Sunderland man off the list, but the United back line is riddled with injuries.

DEFENDERS

Toby Alderweireld – No other defender has been more successful in fantasy for the past month, as the Belgian has accrued a clean sheet, goal and assist spread over his last three games. No reason to lose faith as Spurs host the Magpies at White Hart Lane.

Aleksandar Kolarov – While a manager-less club have shown they can rise to the occasion, the attacking potential of Kolarov cannot be overlooked against most opponents. City can’t seem to keep the opponent out without Vincent Kompany present, but I still think it’s a 50/50 shot here.

Alberto Moreno – Kind of the opposite of Kolarov. I see a very good chance for a cleanie by Moreno, who is being rested for Liverpoo’s Europa match in midweek, but it may be a tough week for attacking returns against a pesky West Brom defense. Poor guy should have been given a goal last week in the loss to Newcastle.

Hector Bellerin – I am beginning to become frustrated by the lack of returns for Bellerin. He’s completely blanked in league play since the calendar turned to November – no clean sheets, attacking points or bonus in the FPL game. Still, when Villa are your opponent, you cannot give up on him quite yet.

Erik Pieters – Facing a depleted West Ham attack, it is another week to feel good about trusting the Stoke defense. Pieters is the one to own from the group as he adds a threat going forward. See more on Pieters in this week’s Bargain Hunter column.

Seamus Coleman – Everton are averaging three goals scored per game over their last five and face a Norwich side that are capable of scoring but the Toffees are capable of keeping them out. Coleman looks a good bet to get something one way or the other here.

Danny Rose – Another Tottenham defender makes the list. Like Lloris and Alderweireld, I am feeling good about Spurs keeping up a solid defense while confident Newcastle go back to their stumbling ways. Rose’s three assists on the season is joint top in the league for defenders.

Patrick van Aanholt – PvA seems to go through long stretches of good and bad form. That is good for a fantasy manager as he is easier to trust when going well and he is going well now with two clean sheets and a goal over his past three. A home fixture helps him earn a spot here too.

Scott Dann – You gotta love defenders who score goals. Dann grabbed his third of the season last week to take co-ownership of top scoring defender this season. Hosting a Southampton side that couldn’t grab three points against Villa last week on their own ground, I think Dann finds success in some way in this fixture.

MIDFIELDERS

Riyad Mahrez – It’s not just rewarding him with the top ranking after collecting a hat trick, or an attempt to pick on opponents Chelsea who continue to disappoint, it’s just that this dude is so incredibly tough to stop when on the ball. He is on pace for about 24 goals. The Vardy streak is over, it is time to respect the man who really makes the Foxes attack tick.

Kevin de Bruyne – City hit a wall against the Potters last week but proved midweek that their attack isn’t in a rut. KdB may have to share the spoils with a fit David Silva now, but I still feel confident there is enough to go around at home to suffering Swansea.

Mesut Ozil – The Wizard of Oz-il was on display again last week, as he collected his customary assist last week. He has either scored or assisted in every league game going back to September 19th. As reliable as they come, though the ceiling is lower than the two ranked above him.

Aaron Ramsey – I am a believer in Ramsey playing a central role. When he has done it in the past, he has been a fantasy beast, despite lining up in a deeper role than one would usually want. Doesn’t matter. He gets forward enough and has a nose for goal.

Ross Barkley – Barkley was quiet last week, but he is still the form leader in the FPL game right now. His bulldog style should cause problems for Norwich and get him back on the score sheet in some form.

David Silva – Silva was all but invisible against Stoke last week in what was his first start since returning from injury. Consider it a warmup for him as he found the net in Champions League play Tuesday night. If you aren’t a KdB owner, consider Silva as an alternative for City coverage.

Christian Eriksen – Spurs have only scored once in their last two games and opponents Newcastle just racked up a cleanie last weekend. I see both of those trends reversing this week and Eriksen is the one you want from Tottenham’s midfield.

Yannick Bolasie – Bolasie didn’t do much for fantasy purposes in the Monday night match, but he deserves another vote of confidence with the way he has performed over the last several weeks. I do not see Southampton going to Selhurst had putting the clamps down on the Eagles attack.

Eden Hazard – Was I an idiot to rank Hazard top last week? Apparently so. Sometimes playing out of position can look good in theory, but Hazard appears better served in a wide role, which I think Mourinho will return him to this week. Hard to think of investing in him given the price tag, but if you own him, he is still worth backing against a Leicester side that ususally coughs up one or two.

Philippe Coutinho/Roberto Firmino – With Liverpool playing tonight, I hesitate on how and where to rank these two. Should Coutinho make an appearance in Europa League as a sub, then I like him to start and prefer him to Firmino. Both are risks to only put a 60 minute shift in against West Brom. They could do the business, but I am not thrilled about the situation this weekend.

Xherdan Shaqiri – I am really hoping this appearance for Shaqiri in my ranks since I took over duties back in September is the first of many, because I have a bit of a man-crush on him. He showed real class against City last weekend, twisting around his markers and supplying some beautiful balls. Marko Arnautovic may have gotten the final product but I trust Shaqiri much more as a consistent producer.

Gerard Deulofeu – This kid has really been unlucky. He looked to have assisted the lone Everton goal Monday night and had another assist a few weeks back unrewarded when he truly set up a score. He’s playing very well and though owners are frustrated, they shouldn’t give up on him yet.

Sadio Mane – Would someone “Show me the Mane???” – I love the man’s game and many a big club want his services, but he barely makes the ranks this week as he has zero goals and one assist over his last five matches. Seems a good time to bounce back.

Dele Alli – Just creeping into the final spot this week, the budget option has outperformed even the most optimistic of expectations this season. I still cannot find room for him in the ranks most weeks but home to Newcastle is too good to ignore him here.

FORWARDS

Romelu Lukaku – It has been set it and forget it for Lukaku as the top forward in my ranks for several weeks and he keeps making me look wise. I cannot change the habit now, though I will admit there is something about those early Saturday kickoffs that seem to make good players go quiet.

Harry Kane – Brace or better potential for Kane in this matchup. It isn’t a known fact as of this writing but he SHOULD be rested for Tottenham’s Europa tie later tonight and be fresh for Newcastle at White Hart Lane.

Odion Ighalo – At this point, I am not sure why fantasy managers don’t believe enough in Ighalo to make space for him in their FPL squad. He’s been nothing but consistent at a bargain price. I cannot lose faith despite a tricky trip to Sunderland.

Olivier Giroud – Champions League hat trick midweek for Giroud and now facing basement-dwelling Villa. Why haven’t I ranked him higher? Well, Giroud needs to show me two good games in a row to anoint him as a top option. I do like him as a buy if you are shopping for a forward this week though.

Troy Deeney – I feel Watford are only going to score once against Sunderland, if at all. Yet I have a second Watford player ranked in the top 5. Why? Well, I felt the same about their prospects last week, ranked them both high last week, and they both produced last week. They’ve earned it.

Jamie Vardy – The Vardy party ended last week and instead we had a Mahrez monopoly on fantasy points. Vardy had to go quiet at some point and good for him he got the record before the blank came. He proved he can deal with the spotlight pressure so a Monday night brawl with Chelsea seems ideal for a return to scoring.

Bojan – I am in a league where I own Bojan and was thrilled to see he was playing furthest forward when team news was announced last week. I then proceeded to witness Stoke outclass Man City, only to wind up getting nothing from the ex-Barca man. He is still a goal threat in my eyes and I think this week Shaqiri sets him up instead of Arnautovic.

Graziano Pelle – As soon as you write Pelle off, he pops up with another goal. I think there could be a few goals shared between Palace and Southampton in their matchup, so I am going with my gut and backing Pelle to score.

Diego Costa – Kept out of the Starting XI the last two weeks but I am going to go out on a limb and say he starts this week. Chelsea will be better served for his inclusion. Costa and Hazard score but Leicester still win 3-2. Pretty much what one would expect at this point.

Anthony Martial – I am not sure if I have ranked Martial even once since taking over the rankings column, and if I did, I am sure it was quite low in the pecking order. While I may not be a huge fan of his game as he has much to learn, and United’s attack is about as boring as it gets in the league these days, I think they will score on Bouremouth and Martial will be the one to do it.

So there you have it. The best of the best to consider for Week 16. Remember, Liverpool and Tottenham still have games to play before the gameweek starts, so check tomorrow on how they did and reconsider some options based on form or injury, especially Coutinho. Stay tuned for all injury news at Rotoworld on Fridays. Names like Sergio Aguero have been omitted from the ranks this week but they have not been ruled out of the weekend yet either.

Good luck fellow managers, and may your arrows be green.

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