Revisiting TCU's season predictions: Why they were all wrong – Dallas Morning News (blog)
The Dallas Morning News
TCU quarterback Trevone Boykin (2) sits at the goal line and watches the Oklahoma State defense celebrate after he was stopped just short of the end zone on a fourth down during the fourth quarter of an NCAA football game at Boone Pickens Stadium in Stillwater, Okla., Saturday, Nov. 7, 2015. Oklahoma State won the game 49-29. (Smiley N. Pool/The Dallas Morning News)
The 2015 season was supposed to end in the College Football Playoff for these TCU Horned Frogs. That was the goal, anyway, for the country’s second-ranked team entering the year.
Before a rash of injuries hampered TCU’s defense early in the season, the close calls at Texas Tech and Kansas State, the blowout loss at Oklahoma State and injuries to Trevone Boykin and Josh Doctson late in the season, some big things were expected out of TCU — including from former blogger Ryan Gerbosi.
Here’s a look back at his five bold predictions from before the season, and how right — or in this case, a little off the mark — they were:
1. Trevone Boykin will be in New York for Heisman ceremony. No, he will not be. The three finalists for college football’s most prestigious award wound up being Alabama running back Derrick Henry, Stanford running back/do-it-all man Christian McCaffrey and Clemson quarterback Deshaun Watson. More than halfway through the season, Boykin was widely considered a legitimate candidate to win the award while chasing early-season favorite Leonard Fournette, the LSU running back. The first — and perhaps fatal blow — to Boykin’s chances was his four-interception performance in the 49-29 loss at Oklahoma State on Nov. 7. The following week, Boykin was knocked out of the Kansas game in the first half with an ankle injury that forced him to miss the Oklahoma game. Could a healthy Boykin have clawed his way back into the discussion? We’ll never know. Prediction counter: 0 for 1.
2. Frogs will score the most points in the nation. Not quite, but they were incredibly productive. The Horned Frogs were among college football’s best offenses from wire to wire, finishing eighth nationally in scoring offense (41.7 points per game). It’s tough to come establish one’s status as the country’s highest-scoring offense when said team plays in the Big 12. Baylor, Texas Tech and Oklahoma finished first, second and third nationally in points per game at 48, 46.6 and 45.8, respectively. At 576 points, Baylor edged Western Kentucky (575) for the most scored this season. So maybe next time the prediction will read: Frogs will score the most points in the Big 12. That’d do the trick, obviously. Prediction counter: 0 for 2.
3. Aaron Green becomes major NFL prospect. Again: not quite. The senior running back enjoyed a fine season, racking up a team-best 1,171 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground on 219 rushes. And though Green hasn’t blossomed into an elite NFL prospect at his position, that doesn’t mean he won’t be highly sought after in the upcoming draft. CBS Sports’ most recent prospect rankings listed Green as the 11th-best running back in the 2016 draft class and projected him to be a fourth-round pick. Prediction counter: 0 for 3.
4. TCU finishes outside Top 5 of Big 12 in defense. Wrong. But given how plagued the team was by injuries on the defensive side of the ball early in the season, the bolder prediction might have been to pick TCU to finish in the top five of the Big 12. Gerbosi, however, could not see into the future — as far as we know — and that’s OK. TCU’s patchwork defense held on long enough for some players to return and slowly replenish the unit as the season wore on, and in doing so, it finished ranked third in the conference in scoring defense (26.1 points per game allowed) behind Oklahoma and West Virginia. In total defense, the Horned Frogs ranked fourth (396.7 yards per game allowed). It wasn’t the Gary Patterson-led defense we’re used to seeing, but it was good enough. Prediction counter: 0 for 4.
5. Horned Frogs reach College Football Playoff. They did not. Their hopes of becoming the league’s first CFP representative crashed and burned in Stillwater, Okla., after that resounding loss to the Cowboys. Even before the game, TCU was fighting negative perception after barely surviving road games against the Red Raiders and Wildcats early in conference play. A long shot after losing at Oklahoma State, TCU narrowly escaped with a win at home against winless Kansas the next week, and then it lost at Oklahoma to put an end to any CFP odds for good. What could have been had the defense been able to field its projected starting unit all season? What if Doctson hadn’t hurt his wrist in the first half of the Oklahoma State game? Does a healthy Boykin lead TCU to a win over Oklahoma? It was that kind of season for the Horned Frogs. “What if?” Well, if TCU stays healthy, what becomes of Gerbosi’s predictions? These are the important questions in life. Prediction counter: 0 for 5. Ouch.
Preseason prediction: 11-1, College Football Playoff berth
Can I do better next season? (Hint: probably not.) … We’ll see.
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