Matchups: Silva's Week 14 Matchups
1:00PM ET Games
Buffalo @ Philadelphia
The game total on Bills-Eagles is 47 points with visiting Buffalo favored by one. The Bills’ team total is 24 points. … Although Philadelphia escaped with its first victory since Week 9, DC Billy Davis‘ defense emerged from last Sunday’s upset of New England having coughed up four more touchdowns, and with an average of 39.3 points per game allowed over the last three weeks. Since the Eagles’ Week 8 bye, opposing quarterbacks have compiled an 18:3 TD-to-INT ratio against Philadelphia while averaging 282.2 passing yards per game. This is plus draw for Tyrod Taylor, who’s overcome long odds to finish as fantasy’s overall QB5 in Week 12 at Kansas City, and as the QB7 in Week 13 versus a previously white-hot Texans defense. Because the Eagles play fast on offense and poorly on defense, they’ve allowed the NFL’s most offensive plays and tend to spike the fantasy production of their opponents by giving them more opportunities. These are the last five quarterbacks to face the Eagles with their weekly fantasy finish in parentheses: Tom Brady (QB3), Jameis Winston (QB2), Matthew Stafford (QB2), Ryan Tannehill (QB16), Matt Cassel (QB6). … Negative game flow prevented the Patriots from staying committed to their rushing attack in last week’s loss to the Eagles, but New England’s running backs were efficient (4.44 YPC) on the ground. Over its last six games, Philly has permitted 807 yards on 161 carries (5.01 YPC) to opposing backs. LeSean McCoy has cleared 100 total yards in every game during that same timeframe. With a #RevengeGame narrative in play, expect LeSean McCoy to be the most popular running back play on the board this week.
Tyrod’s targets since the Bills’ Week 8 bye: Sammy Watkins 35; Robert Woods 31; Charles Clay 25; McCoy 23; Chris Hogan 15. … One of this week’s highest-ceiling receiver plays, Watkins will run most of his routes at Eagles rookie RCB Eric Rowe, who was forced into starting duty a game and a half ago when Nolan Carroll broke his ankle. After getting manhandled by Calvin Johnson (8-93-3) on Thanksgiving, Rowe settled down for a solid Week 13 showing against Brandon LaFell (4-27-0), aided of course by LaFell’s mistake-filled game. Still, Rowe’s inexperience, hip stiffness, and shortage of short-area quicks make this a very attractive matchup for Watkins. … Clay caught a game-winning 40-yard touchdown in last week’s win over the Texans, but was otherwise quiet and has been for months. It was his first score since Week 3. Clay is averaging 33 yards per game since the first month of the season. The Eagles allow the fifth fewest fantasy points to tight ends. … Woods beat rookie CB Kevin Johnson for a two-yard touchdown against Houston, but was held under 50 yards for the tenth time in 12 games. Although he has a favorable matchup with Eagles LCB Byron Maxwell, possession receiver Woods is the sort of player who needs volume to pay fantasy dividends. Woods does not usually get much volume in Buffalo’s run-first offense, drawing five targets or fewer in all but five games this season.
As one-point home dogs, Philly’s Week 14 team total is 23 points. … The Eagles pulled off an impressive Week 13 upset at Foxboro, but primarily did it with defense and special teams as Sam Bradford‘s offense mustered only two scoring drives. Offensively, the Eagles’ point totals are 14, 14, 17, 17, and 26 since their Week 8 bye. … The Bills’ normally stout pass defense has sprung leaks lately, giving up 45-of-73 passing for 548 yards (7.51 YPA) and a combined 5:1 TD-to-INT ratio to Alex Smith and Brian Hoyer in Weeks 12-13. Whereas Rex Ryan‘s defense has struggled with quarterbacks who release the ball quickly like Smith and Hoyer, Bradford ranks 21st among 31 qualified passers in PFF’s Time To Throw metric and 23rd in Time To Attempt. Buffalo has still not allowed a top-ten quarterback performance since Week 4 (Eli Manning, QB6), while Bradford has finished as a top-15 fantasy passer in just 2-of-10 games. … Ranked 18th in Football Outsiders’ pass-defense DVOA compared to 30th versus the run, Buffalo has given up a combined 152-722-6 (4.75 YPC) rushing line to enemy backs over its last seven games. Unfortunately, the Eagles’ backfield has become muddier than ever with scheme misfit DeMarco Murray‘s playing time cut and Ryan Mathews due back from his concussion. Darren Sproles led the unit in playing time (56%) and touches (19) in last week’s win over the Patriots. Kenjon Barner logged 11 touches, but also lost a fumble. Murray touched the ball eight times on a season-low 14 snaps. Afterwards, Chip Kelly insisted the revised pecking order was “game-plan specific.” I don’t pretend to know how touches will be distributed this week. I do know Mathews has been the Eagles’ best runner and is worth stashing in all season-long leagues.
Bradford’s target distribution in his return from shoulder and brain injuries last week: Sproles and Jordan Matthews 6; Zach Ertz 4; Barner, Nelson Agholor, and “Jonathan Krause” 2; Riley Cooper and Brent Celek 1. … Almost unfailingly, Matthews has been a dud in pristine matchups all year, but he does have another good-looking one on paper against slot CB Nickell Robey, who is easily Buffalo’s worst cornerback. Robey stands 5’7/169 to Matthews’ 6’3/212. J-Matt played 76% of Philadelphia’s Week 13 snaps and is the favorite to lead the Eagles in Week 14 targets. … The Bills’ loss of top corner Stephon Gilmore (shoulder) theoretically improves the matchup for Philly’s perimeter wideouts, but no Eagles outside receiver has stepped forward as a fantasy option this year. … Buffalo ranks 22nd in fantasy points allowed to tight ends. Ertz is 22nd in points per game at his position and should be low on priority lists for TE1 streamers.
Score Prediction: Bills 24, Eagles 21
Seattle @ Baltimore
The game total on Seahawks-Ravens is 42 points with visiting Seattle favored by ten. Pete Carroll‘s squad boasts a team total of 26 points. … The hottest quarterback in football over the past three weeks, Russell Wilson is 66-of-86 passing (76.7%) for 879 yards (10.2 YPA) and an 11:0 TD-to-INT ratio during that stretch, with a 31.7-yard rushing average and an additional rushing score. Mainly dissecting defenses from the pocket, Wilson finished as fantasy’s overall QB4, QB1, and QB4 in Weeks 11-13. This week’s game sets up well for Wilson against a Ravens defense that can contain rushing offenses but struggles to rush the passer and cover. Baltimore ranks 18th in sacks (28) and has yielded the 11th most touchdown passes in the league (22). … Averaging 22.2 touches per game through six starts, Thomas Rawls‘ volume should be bankable against a Baltimore team that may be quarterbacked by Jimmy Clausen, and seems unlikely to be competitive. Game flow projects to work in Rawls’ favor with Seattle favored by two scores. Working against Rawls is his matchup with a Ravens defense that’s held opposing backs to 288 yards and one touchdown on 84 carries (3.43 YPC) since its Week 9 bye. Lamar Miller did drop a 20-113 rushing line on Baltimore last week. Rawls is a high-floor RB1 play in Week 14.
Wilson’s targets since the Seahawks’ Week 9 bye: Doug Baldwin 31; Tyler Lockett 16; Jermaine Kearse 13; Rawls and Luke Willson 7; Fred Jackson 6; Cooper Helfet 5. … Fantasy’s No. 1 overall receiver in PPR scoring over the past month, Baldwin has logged target counts of 10, 6, 8, and 7 since the bye. Although his box-score production has been inflated by big plays, Baldwin has established himself as a legit fantasy WR2 as the No. 1 pass option for the league’s most on-fire quarterback. Baldwin will be a top beneficiary if the Seahawks can’t establish a consistent run game against the run-tough Ravens. … Lockett only played 58% of Seattle’s Week 13 snaps, but his catch (7), yardage (90), and target (7) totals were all season highs. While Lockett’s playing time remains a significant concern, his usage seems to be on the rise and he gets a plum Week 14 matchup against Ravens LCB Shareece Wright, who is Baltimore’s most vulnerable corner. Baldwin will spend more time on steady slot CB Lardarius Webb while Kearse draws talented-if-enigmatic RCB Jimmy Smith. … In their first full game post-Jimmy Graham, the Seahawks turned to Willson for 80% of the snaps and three targets. Helfet logged 49% of the downs and drew four looks. The Ravens are permitting the third fewest fantasy points to tight ends.
As ten-point underdogs versus Seattle, the Ravens have a week-low team total of 16 points. … Last week’s No. 1 overall fantasy running back in PPR scoring, Buck Allen‘s snap rate leaped from 59% in his first start to 70% in his second, with his touch total improving from 16 to 29. Allen isn’t going to go anywhere on the ground against a Seahawks run defense that ranks No. 10 in Football Outsiders’ DVOA and held Adrian Peterson to 18 yards on eight carries last week. Allen is a ball-catching machine, however, and only Kamar Aiken (21) has drawn more targets than Allen (18) since Joe Flacco tore his ACL and MCL three weeks ago. As Aiken could conceivably be zeroed out by Richard Sherman in this game, expect another flurry of targets for Allen, who is a quality RB2 play in PPR leagues. Otherwise, Baltimore’s Clausen- or Matt Schaub-quarterbacked passing “attack” can be ignored in the first round of the fantasy playoffs.
Score Prediction: Seahawks 24, Ravens 6
San Francisco @ Cleveland
The game total on Niners-Browns is 41 points with host Cleveland favored by 1.5. Again quarterbacked by Johnny Manziel, the Browns’ team total is a shade above 21. … Much to the chagrin of coach Mike Pettine, Cleveland turned back to Manziel this week after Austin Davis flopped against the Bengals, failing to engineer a touchdown drive in an embarrassing 37-3 home loss. Despite immense college playmaking ability, Manziel has consistently failed to fill the box score through five NFL starts, notching weekly fantasy finishes of QB11, QB23, QB24, and QB35 in four games played start to finish. Manziel’s top-11 game occurred in a 30-9 Week 10 blowout loss to Pittsburgh wherein a majority of his stats came after halftime, at which point Cleveland was trailing 21-3. By all measures, the 49ers pose a plus on-paper matchup for Johnny Football. I’m skeptical he’ll capitalize. … Unless the Blaine Gabbert-quarterbacked Niners pour points on the Browns and jump out to a significant lead, expect OC John DeFilippo to call a conservative game more along the lines of Manziel’s Week 2 start versus Tennessee. Manziel finished that one with eight completions, mixing in two Travis Benjamin touchdown bombs on designed shot plays as Cleveland amassed a 30:15 run-to-pass ratio. Fantasy owners especially desperate at running back may want to give Isaiah Crowell a look. Crowell went 15-72-1 against the Titans in the aforementioned Week 2 game, and continued to out-snap (52%) and out-touch (12) Duke Johnson (51%, 9 touches) last week, even with the Browns in constant catch-up mode. San Francisco ranks 28th in Football Outsiders’ run-defense DVOA.
Manziel’s targets in his Week 10 start: Travis Benjamin 11; Brian Hartline 9; Gary Barnidge and Andrew Hawkins 8; Johnson 4; Taylor Gabriel 3; Crowell 2. … A non-factor in Manziel’s Weeks 2 and 9 starts (1-17-0, 2-35-0), Barnidge came to life (6-65-1) in the Pittsburgh game and had 42 of his yards at the half. While Josh McCown starting would’ve been ideal for Barnidge’s outlook, season-long leaguers should feel at least some level of confidence in Barnidge as a mid-range to low-end TE1 play. Barnidge remained useful even in Davis’ disastrous game, catching five balls for 59 yards, good for top-nine tight end numbers in PPR leagues last week. … Benjamin’s stat lines in Manziel’s starts are 3-115-2, 3-22-0, and 7-113-0. Coming off a Week 13 shoulder injury, Benjamin is best approached as a boom-bust WR3 option. … Hartline has drawn target totals of 10, 9, 12, and 11 over the last month, and posted a 6-77 line on nine looks in Manziel’s Steelers start. The expected return of Gabriel (concussion) may cut into Hartline’s usage, however. Hartline will be third in line for targets behind Barnidge and Benjamin against the 49ers.
As 1.5-point road dogs in Cleveland, the 49ers’ team total is a tick below 20 points. I like the over on San Francisco’s total against a Browns defense that’s permitted point totals of 37, 20, 30, 31, and 34 over its last five games. … Coming off a top-ten fantasy quarterback week, Blaine Gabbert has played his way into two-QB-league starting lineups facing a Browns defense that’s allowed the third most touchdown passes in the league (25) and ranks third to last in sacks (17). Cleveland can’t rush the quarterback and can’t cover. The 49ers should be able to move the ball consistently on Pettine’s group. … Since Shaun Draughn took over as San Francisco’s bellcow four games ago, his weekly PPR finishes are RB16, RB15, RB15, and RB13. That is the work of an every-week RB2 in PPR leagues, and Draughn showed last week he is viable in non-PPR formats as well with a second-quarter goal-line plunge. 29th in run-defense DVOA, Cleveland has yielded the sixth most fantasy points to running backs, including a league-high 1,543 rushing yards.
Gabbert’s target distribution this season: Anquan Boldin 31; Draughn 27; Vance McDonald 19; Quinton Patton 14; Torrey Smith 13; Blake Bell 6; Garrett Celek and Bruce Ellington 5; Jerome Simpson 4. … Boldin’s target totals in his last three games are 13, 11, and 7. He’s in the fantasy WR3 conversation this week against Browns slot CB K’Waun Williams, who’s drawn negative PFF grades in three of his last four games and stands 5’9/183 to Boldin’s 6’1/216. … Smith caught a 71-yard game-winning touchdown bomb in overtime of last week’s upset of Chicago, but his other stat lines in Gabbert’s starts are 2-44-0, 1-16-0, and 2-51-0. … If McDonald (concussion) can’t play against the Browns, the 49ers will turn to fourth-round rookie Bell as their starting tight end. A quarterback early in his college career, “Belldozer” is worth stashing in Dynasty leagues. Vernon Davis is long gone, Garrett Celek is on injured reserve and an impending free agent, and McDonald has shown few signs of being San Francisco’s tight end of the future. Bell played 85% of the Niners’ Week 13 snaps, but managed five yards on three targets.
Score Prediction: 49ers 23, Browns 17
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