Weekly Picks: The Bargain Hunter – Week 16
As we’ve heard all week, the past weekend was upset central. That alone makes it a difficult week for many, considering most top managers didn’t stock their teams full of Bournemouth and Stoke City talent. But these things happen, expect the law of averages to show its face a couple times a season.
Last week, I made a guarantee. And for the most part, it returned mixed results in the first week. But outside of Willy Caballero, which showed the downside of publishing this column on a Tuesday, those were not one-week buys. Stick to them, they will pull through.
Like they have for Troy Deeney, expect the points to start flowing. Deeney continued his scoring roll last week with a goal and assist, becoming the first ever Watford player to score in four consecutive Premier League matches.
Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and Junior Stanislas each looked active and productive, but like Chelsea’s performance it just didn’t show up where things matter. Patrick van Aanholt is a bit of a gamble, but his offensive potential is worth it as long as you don’t count on him as one of your week-in, week-out starters.
As we enter the festive period, it will be crucial to check regularly for all the latest injury news, especially in a week like this with Champions League fixtures preceding the weekend. The last thing you want to do is waste an early transfer or waiver claim only to see your player is injured or inactive.
Well, without much more delay, here are the bargains of Week 16. I’m welcoming all suggestions and debates on Twitter (@gastelumEPL) and hopefully I can include your thoughts here in this column.
One Week Buys (OWB) – When a regular is suspended for a match, ineligible to face his parent club as a loanee, or his fill-in looks to deputize for only a week while the regular nurses a minor injury, this is where to find some replacements. They should only be looked at when you really need help at a position that week alone, and not looked at as long term plays. Best for salary cap leagues with unlimited transactions.
Short-term Buys (STB) – When a regular faces a multi-game suspension, an injury layoff lasting 2-5 weeks, international commitment, etc., this is where you look for players that can offer more beyond one week but do have a limited shelf life in most cases. Worth using a waiver claim or spending a bit more of your free agent budget (FAAB) than the One Week Buys. Can be useful in Fantasy Premier League format as long as you are comfortable with possibly needing to transfer them out in a few weeks.
Long-term Buys (LTB) – When a regular is either facing a month or more out or has lost his spot seemingly to someone better, these are the players that emerge as potential long-term investments and are therefore the most valuable of the group and worth paying up. Great for any format, but especially valuable in the FPL.com game.
BARGAINS:
GK – Adrian (West Ham)
A lot of the picks this week revolve around this mantra: If he’s somehow available in your league, snap him up ASAP. It’s unlikely Adrian will be available in your draft league, but according to Fantrax he’s still a free agent in a quarter of leagues. The official Fantasy Premier League is where I expect him to do the most damage, available for just £5.0. With West Ham recording its first clean sheet since September this weekend and catalysts Victor Moses and Manuel Lanzini both injured, expect the Hammers to grind out results and throw bodies behind the ball. With their upcoming schedule (Stoke, Swansea, Aston Villa, Southampton), Adrian looks like a good short-to-long-term buy in any league format.
DEF – Erik Pieters (Stoke City)
Pieters looks like a very promising pick in a revitalized Stoke City defense that is now buoyed by a win against Manchester City. He’s still available in more than 30 percent of Fantrax leagues and costs just £4.9 in FPL, where he has record 32 points in the last five matches. The left-back looks like a good long-term buy with Marc Muniesa out with injury and a light festive schedule with West Ham, Crystal Palace, Manchester United, Everton, West Brom and Norwich up next. You won’t have to worry about Pieters missing a match either, unless he is unable to walk. The Dutchman has played all 90 minutes in every match since Week 2, and that includes a match in which he broke his nose in two places.
DEF – Jonny Evans (West Brom)
Evans was one of my first picks when I first began writing this column two months back, but I feel now is another time to go after the center-half in case you missed out on him earlier this season. Evans is available in the majority of Fantrax leagues, picked in only 43 percent, despite being a starting defender in a Tony Pulis system. Remember I mentioned the law of averages earlier in this column? Well, with Pulis teams, that seems to apply with clean sheets. West Brom has gone five matches without a clean sheet, meaning the levees will soon break. Liverpool, Bournemouth, Swansea, Newcastle and Stoke City make up the festive period, which makes Evans a good long-term buy just as he has always been since moving to West Brom.
MID – Marko Arnautovic (Stoke City)
It looks like we are jumping on the Stoke City bandwagon this week with two picks (making that three in the past couple weeks after Ryan Shawcross returned). Only Jack Butland has more points in FPL for Stoke City than Arnautovic, who has seemed to hit his stride this season. At first, it looked like he would be the odd man out after bringing in Ibrahim Afellay and Xherdan Shaqiri, but Arnautovic has only benefitted (that odd man out is actually Mame Diouf). Arnautovic scored two against Manchester City last week and should have easily had a hat trick and already has a Premier League career high with five goals. Available at just £6.1 in FPL, he looks like a great pickup for the league and would be an excellent addition to any draft league, if he’s available.
FWD – Fabio Borini (Sunderland)
This pick carries a bit of risk right now, but cheap forwards are hard to come by at the moment (as if that ever really changes). Borini has hardly played this season due to injuries, but Sunderland took extra time to make sure he was fully recovered after the latest knock. The Italian made his return to action last weekend, starting against Arsenal, The Black Cats face Watford this weekend with Jermain Defoe still doubtful and the club in need of some attacking firepower. Here’s to hoping that he returns to that seven-goal season from two years ago, but consider Borini a one-week buy at the moment.
FPL SELL OF THE WEEK:
The Leicester City firesale
I really don’t understand this one. Leicester City, the top-of-the-league Leicester City that features two of the top three goalscorers in the Premier League, is the subject of a sale that looks more like it belongs at the end of November than now. Managers seem to be looking at the upcoming schedule with Chelsea, Everton, Liverpool and Man City and the fact that Jamie Vardy proved he is human by not scoring for once, but this shouldn’t concern you. The Foxes have made it to December with the most points in the league, and despite a tough festive schedule (one that looked much worse at the beginning of the season before Chelsea’s demise), they will still go to the same players for production. Maybe it’s not the best idea to have a Leicester defender, but was there ever a time for that? Stick with Vardy and Riyad Mahrez and even Marc Albrighton and Danny Drinkwater, because Leicester’s fortune goes with them.
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