NFL Picks Week 14: Panthers, Chiefs roll; Saints nip Bucs – NOLA.com
It wasn’t very long ago when I said things get easier to pick this time of year. Everyone but me, that is.
My roller-coaster season of prognosticating continues as I had trouble finding winning picks with a Gold Sheet. Anyway, we’re ready to jump right back on the horse, and I’m ready to guarantee my top three picks.
That’s a guarantee as long as you don’t make me back it up with money or some sort of weird commitment. If that’s the case, then I really just like my picks a whole bunch and wish you good luck!
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Here we go with Week 14 (home team in bold):
16 points: CAROLINA over ATLANTA, Sunday at noon
To think that before 2014 no team had won the NFC South in consecutive seasons, and now the Panthers have done it three times in a row. While I feel the Panthers will have a slip up and finish the season 15-1, I don’t see them losing at home to a team that hasn’t been the same since the beat down in the Dome nearly two months ago. Have a feeling this one will be closer than it should, and an interesting note: the under has hit in six of Carolina’s last seven games. I’ll take the under 46.5 here, too. Against the spread: Falcons plus-7.5.
Last week: Cincinnati over Cleveland (W). 16-point record: 3-2. ATS, Browns +7.5 (L)
15 points: KANSAS CITY over SAN DIEGO, Sunday at noon
Speaking of two months ago, these two teams were pretty much in the same boat – left for dead. Only difference now is, the Chiefs stole the keys and paddles and kicked the Chargers onto a desolate island. The defense has been ferocious, and Alex Smith looks unflappable. Not picking against Kansas City again until they prove me wrong. Weird stat: Chiefs have been a double-digit favorite over San Diego just once in 30 years. Too many points to give up. Against the spread: Chargers plus-10.5.
Last week: Chicago over San Francisco (L). 15-point record: 3-3. ATS, Bears -6.5 (L)
14 points: GREEN BAY over DALLAS, Sunday at 3:25 p.m.
Have injuries taken that big of a toll on the Packers that they now suddenly look average? I’m not buying it, but I am buying that the Cowboys can’t win without Tony Romo. (Unless they play the Redskins, ha.) Of course, Dallas has had trouble winning WITH Romo at Lambeau Field, as they’ve lost the last two by a combined score of 62-14. This one shouldn’t be close. Against the spread: Packers minus-7.5.
Last week: New England over Philadelphia (L). 14-point record: 10-2. ATS, Patriots -9.5 (L)
13 points: SEATTLE over BALTIMORE, Sunday at noon
Are the real Seahawks back? Well, of course – Jimmy Graham is out for the season. I’m only half-joking. Another team I won’t be betting against until they prove me wrong. Against the spread: Seahawks minus-5.5.
Last week: Washington over Dallas (L). 13-point record: 9-4. ATS, Redskins -3.5 (L)
12 points: DENVER over OAKLAND, Sunday at 3:05 p.m.
Since the Broncos have settled on Brock Osweiler – no matter when Peyton Manning is ready to come back – they have been nearly unstoppable. This defense also often goes underrated, and should be able to stifle young David Carr as they did a couple of months ago in Oakland. Against the spread: Broncos minus-7.5.
Last week: Arizona over St. Louis (W). 12-point record: 9-4. ATS, Rams +5.5 (L)
11 points: NY JETS over TENNESSEE, Sunday at noon
Each bad team is allowed one surprise per season, and I think an 87-yard touchdown run by a rookie quarterback fills that bill. It’s not going to be nearly as easy for Tennessee against this Jets defense, which is looking to get back on track. Shouldn’t be a problem here. Against the spread: Titans plus-7.5.
Last week: Green Bay over Detroit (W). 11-point record: 8-5. ATS, Packers -3.5 (W)
10 points: PHILADELPHIA over BUFFALO, Sunday at noon
So was the Eagles’ win last week at New England a product of luck, or does Sam Bradford make that much of a difference? I’m not willing to go out on any sort of skinny limbs, but beating up on Tom Brady usually isn’t a fluke. Against the spread: Eagles, even.
Last week: Carolina over New Orleans (W). 10-point record: 10-3. ATS, Saints +7.5 (W)
9 points: NEW ENGLAND over HOUSTON, Sunday at 7:30 p.m.
It often seems that once a team has been brought back to Earth, they stay there for a while. And while the Patriots have a built-in excuse with all the injuries on offense, something tells me Mr. Brady is going to take measures into his own hand this week. Against the spread: Patriots minus-3.5.
Last week: Houston over Buffalo (L). 9-point record: 5-8. ATS, Texans +2.5 (L)
8 points: NEW ORLEANS over TAMPA BAY, Sunday at noon
Want to guess how many times the Saints have been an underdog against Tampa Bay during the Sean Payton era? Once – in November 2008. (The Bucs won, 23-20.) Goes to show the dominance the black and gold has had over this group. Logic dictates Tampa wins, but I’m going with my gut in this one. I said last week if the Saints didn’t show up against Carolina, it would be proof they were giving up on the season. They showed up, and except for one really bad defensive back who is often penalized, they played well. I think they back up their solid performance with another one on the road, this time a narrow victory. Against the spread: Saints plus-3.5.
Last week: Pittsburgh over Indianapolis (W). 8-point record: 7-6. ATS, Steelers -6.5 (W)
7 points: CHICAGO over WASHINGTON, Sunday at noon
The Bears are who we thought they were. (OK, I couldn’t resist.) They’re an up-and-down inconsistent mess that can look like NFC champs one week and big ole dogs the next. But Washington being terrible on the road is the capper for me. Like the under. Against the spread: Bears minus-2.5.
Last week: Jacksonville over Tennessee (L). 7-point record: 10-3. ATS, Jaguars +2.5 (L)
6 points: ARIZONA over MINNESOTA, Thursday at 7:25 p.m.
As we come down the stretch, the cream is just about set to rise to the top, and I’m not sure anyone in football is playing as well as the Cardinals. Conversely, it has been a bad couple weeks for a team on the rise in Minnesota. Can’t see them going to the desert and pulling this upset. Against the spread: Cardinals minus-7.5.
Last week: Denver over San Diego (W). 6-point record: 10-3. ATS, Chargers +4.5 (L)
5 points: SAN FRANCISCO over CLEVELAND, Sunday at noon
Now, it seems Johnny Football is going to get another chance. Well, that makes this decision that much easier. Johnny Football = win for the other team. Against the spread: 49ers plus-1.5.
Last week: Giants over Jets (L). 5-point record: 8-5. ATS, Giants +2.5 (L)
4 points: JACKSONVILLE over INDIANAPOLIS, Sunday at noon
Doesn’t really matter to me whether old washed-up Charlie Whitehurst plays quarterback or old washed-up Matt Hasselbeck is under center. OK, I lied. If Whitehurst plays, the Colts will get their arses whacked. If Hasselbeck plays, it won’t be quite as ugly. Something to look forward to, Colts fans, for sure. Against the spread: Jaguars, even.
Last week: Tampa Bay over Atlanta (W). 4-point record: 5-8. ATS, Bucs -1.5 (W)
3 points: PITTSBURGH over CINCINNATI, Sunday at noon
The Steelers offense has been on a roll rarely seen in the NFL. Scary to think Big Ben has been doing this all while injured. Andy Dalton has been no slouch, either, but I’m scoring one here for the old man. Er, make that wily veteran. Against the spread: Steelers plus-3.5.
Last week: Kansas City over Oakland (W). 3-point record: 3-10. ATS, Chiefs -2.5 (W)
2 points: MIAMI over NY GIANTS, Monday at 7:30 p.m.
Two teams finishing out the string – except the Giants are still in it in the NFC Least. Seems like every team in contention in that division stinks it up when the pressure is on. Pressure is on. Against the spread: Dolphins, even.
Last week: Miami over Baltimore (W). 2-point record: 7-6. ATS, Ravens +5.5 (W)
1 point: DETROIT over ST. LOUIS, Sunday at noon
This is more a bet against the Rams than it is for Detroit. Hard to think a team changing coordinators can all of a sudden make some grand improvement. Sound familiar, Who Dats? Against the spread: Lions, even.
Last week: Minnesota over Seattle (L). 1-point record: 6-7. ATS, Vikings, even (L)
* Spreads are gathered from Odds Shark on Monday of each week.
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Last week STRAIGHT UP: 9-7. Season: 112-80 (.583).
Last week AGAINST THE SPREAD: 6-10. Season: 88-104 (.458).
POINT TOTALS
Week 13: 72/190 possible points. (Yeah, I do know how bad that is. Thanks.) Weekly rank: T87 out of 106. Overall: 965/1,629. Overall rank: 21 of 256.
Week 13 READERS winner: Mayur Patel, 118/190.
Overall READERS leader: Robert Hobbs, 1,033/1,629.
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PREVIOUS COLUMNS (click on week to view)
Week 13: 9-7 straight up, 6-10 ATS
Week 12: 10-6 straight up, 10-6 ATS
Week 11: 9-5 straight up, 7-7 ATS
Week 10: 3-10 straight up, 5-9 ATS
Week 9: 7-6 straight up, 7-6 ATS
Week 8: 8-6 straight up, 6-8 ATS
Week 7: 10-4 straight up, 4-10 ATS
Week 6: 9-5 straight up, 8-6 ATS
Week 5: 11-3 straight up, 5-9 ATS
Week 4: 8-7 straight up, 6-9 ATS
Week 3: 13-3 straight up, 10-6 ATS
Week 2: 7-9 straight up, 7-9 ATS
Week 1: 8-8 straight up, 7-9 ATS
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Jim Derry can be reached at [email protected] or 504.232.9944. Follow him on Twitter at www.twitter.com/JimDerryJr.
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