Matchups: Matchup: Vikings @ Cardinals
Thursday Night Football
Minnesota @ Arizona
Vikings-Cardinals has a 45.5-point total with host Arizona favored by 7.5. The Cardinals’ team total is 26.5. … Although Mike Zimmer‘s defense has allowed over 23 points in just 2-of-12 weeks this season, two of those games have occured in the last three weeks (Packers 30, Seahawks 38) and the Vikings are expected be without difference makers SLB Anthony Barr (groin/hand), FS Harrison Smith (knee/hamstring), and NT Linval Joseph (foot) on Thursday night. Most vulnerable on the ground, the Vikings rank 25th in Football Outsiders’ run-defense DVOA and have yielded a 100-plus-yard rusher in three straight games (Eddie Lacy, Tevin Coleman, Thomas Rawls). This is a good-looking draw for new Cardinals feature back David Johnson, who parlayed 24 touches into 120 yards and a touchdown in last Sunday’s win at St. Louis while logging 71% of Arizona’s offensive snaps. Johnson is a legitimate RB1 play in Week 14. … The Vikings are stingier versus the pass, but Carson Palmer has played matchup-proof football all season and gets the benefit of playing this December game indoors. Palmer has faced three statistically upper-echelon pass defenses since the Cardinals’ Week 9 bye, finishing as the overall fantasy QB5 in Week 10 at Seattle, the overall QB3 in Week 11 versus Cincinnati, and the overall QB15 in last week’s tail-kicking of the Rams. Last Sunday, the Vikings were shredded by Russell Wilson for 274 yards and three touchdowns on 21-of-27 passing. On pace for a career-high 39 TD passes, Palmer has as strong an MVP case as anyone this year.
Larry Fitzgerald is scoreless since Week 8, but he has caught at least eight balls in five straight games on consecutive target totals of 11, 15, 13, 14, and 11. On Thursday night, Fitzgerald will primarily do battle with Vikings slot corner Captain Munnerlyn, who stands 5’8/182 to Fitz’s 6’3/225. Minnesota did little to contain Seahawks slot man Doug Baldwin (5-94-2) last week. … Michael Floyd‘s snap rate barely improved from Week 12 (63%) to Week 13 (63.5%), but his usage (12 targets) and production did (7-104) as Floyd put on a contested-catch highlight reel against St. Louis. Floyd will run most of his Week 14 routes at RCB Xavier Rhodes, who shut down Julio Jones (5-56-0) two weeks ago but has largely played sub-par coverage this year. Floyd is a volatile, if high-upside WR3/flex option. … John Brown‘s snap rates the last two weeks are 85% and 79% with target counts of 7 and 8. Healthy again and showing a higher week-to-week floor than Floyd, Brown has topped 70 yards and/or scored a touchdown in seven of his last eight games. Brown will mostly line up across from 37-year-old Vikings LCB Terence Newman on Thursday night. … Although explosive fourth receiver J.J. Nelson has earned a weekly role as a vertical lid popper, he is playing under 20% of the Cardinals’ offensive snaps. While Nelson should be rostered in Dynasty leagues, he doesn’t belong on re-draft teams.
7.5-point dogs at University of Phoenix Stadium, the Vikings’ team total is just 19 points. … In a sub-par matchup versus an Arizona defense holding enemy RBs to 3.68 yards per carry, Adrian Peterson is a volume- and talent-driven fantasy investment this week. Peterson has shown the ability to overcome poor matchups before, finishing as the overall fantasy RB5 against the Lions, the RB9 against the Broncos, and the RB8 against the Rams. Detroit, Denver, and St. Louis all have top-13 run defenses per Football Outsiders’ DVOA. It’s conceivable the Vikings make absolute certain to feed Peterson after he complained about his eight-carry workload in last week’s loss to Seattle. Sometimes, the squeaky wheel gets the grease. … Minnesota’s passing-game outlook is more bleak in the desert. Teddy Bridgewater has one multi-passing-touchdown game on the year, and has cleared 200 yards once in the last six weeks. Small in the pocket and painfully short on arm strength, Bridgewater has spent much of his second NFL campaign looking like a non-starting-caliber quarterback. … Mike Wallace has drawn fewer targets than “Rhett Ellison” since Week 10, while the Cardinals can take away Stefon Diggs with Patrick Peterson‘s shutdown coverage. … Kyle Rudolph is the lone Vikings pass catcher worth a Week 14 look. The matchup doesn’t stand out against a Cardinals defense allowing the tenth fewest fantasy points to tight ends, but Rudolph figures to be the Vikings’ best means of generating passing yards in the middle of the field against an opponent that regularly shuts down the perimeter. Rudolph leads Minnesota in targets (23) over the past three weeks.
Score Prediction: Cardinals 27, Vikings 13
This entry passed through the Full-Text RSS service – if this is your content and you’re reading it on someone else’s site, please read the FAQ at fivefilters.org/content-only/faq.php#publishers.
