I was exceptionally stupid last week, which in turn led me to a nice little 4-1 outing. I’m not mathematically eliminated from potentially winning the super contest, but then again no NFL teams are eliminated from playoff contention yet. Yes, this includes the 49ers and the Titans.

For the uninitiated, my strategy is to go through all the week’s games, pick my five most confidant wagers and then go back and reverse them at the last second. I do this because after years of losing money betting on sports, I’ve realized that I am a complete idiot so we try to embrace that here in this column. On to the picks.

Last week: 4-1

On the season: 32-27-1

BILLS -3.5 over Texans

It’ll be interesting to see what pre-rehearsed speech J.J. Watt has if the Texans can beat out the Bills on the road. Everything about this matchup tells me to lean on Houston. The Texans are riding a four-game winning streak to go along with their 5-1 record against the spread in their last six.

Meanwhile the Bills are limping their way into December having lost their last two, and 4 of their last 6. Because I’m a moron I put a ton of stock in momentum, which is why I wanted to bet the Texans big time. But I’m a Big Moron, so I changed my pick at the last second to Bills -3.5.

VIKINGS (PK) over Seahawks

I imagine that there are a ton of people out there who, like me, just assume that the Seahawks should beat the Vikings because, well, they played in the Super Bowl last year. The narrative that has been built around this team led us all to believe that they were going to get it turned around, and last week’s victory against the Steelers can be seen as proof that they’re back in 2014 shape.

Likewise, there are probably lots of folks who think the Vikings will lose because they’re the Vikings. I went into this season thinking Teddy Bridgewater still had one year left before he became a playoff-caliber QB and I want to stick to that story dammit. But I’m a Big Moron, so I changed my pick at the last second to Vikings straight-up over Seahawks.

RAMS (+5.5) over Cardinals

Looks like the QB carousel will stick with to Nick Foles in St. Louis due to Case Keenum’s continuing concussion symptoms. I don’t really think either QB is that big of an upgrade over the other to be honest. If I’m Jeff Fisher I just ask them to audible to into Todd Gurley runs as much as possible, and oh, if you could turn the ball over fewer than three times that would be a nice bonus.

The Cards are 4-2 ATS in their last six on the road and have cemented themselves as front-runners for the number two seed in the NFC. Tyrann Mathieu is playing as well as any defensive back in the game, and the offense is running as efficiently as you could hope for. The only weakness is at the running back position after losing Chris Johnson, who will miss significant time with a leg injury. Despite CJ.8K’s absence, I like to Cards to win by a TD on the road. But I’m a Big Moron, so I changed my pick at the last second to Rams +5.5.

CHARGERS (+4) over Broncos

This one actually gave me physical pain. There’s just no chance that the Broncos should be less than 6.5  point underdogs in this game. Apparently the public agrees with me with 65% of the early action coming in on Denver. The Chargers have been decimated by injury this year, and it’s shown up in their dismal 1-5 record ATS at home this year. Losing Malcolm Floyd (who was playing as well as any receiver in the league) was the nail in the coffin for this group.

Denver seems to be motoring along just fine with Big Brock filling in for Manning. The key is for them to establish the run, and then let Kubiak work his weird bootleg action to keep the defense guessing. The Broncos’ defense has been playing at a Super Bowl level and now it looks like they’re getting DeMarcus Ware back. All signs point to a blowout in San Diego. But I’m a Big Moron, so I changed my pick at the last second to Chargers +4.

Eagles (+9.5) over PATRIOTS

This one was almost as painful as picking the Chargers. I know Gronk’s out. I know Edelman’s out. I know Amendola’s not at 100 percent and will likely re-injure himself at some point this season, but I don’t care. The Eagles look like a team that’s quit, and it’s not a huge surprise. Anytime you have a micromanager like Chip Kelly measuring your urine and enforcing mandatory smoothie hour, you’re going to want to see some results. If you don’t, well then conditions are ripe for either a mutiny or at the very least, apathy.

On the other side of the match-up, conditions are ripe for Bill Belichick and Ernie Adams to get creative and pull some of their strangest and most unexpected schemes out of the binder that they’ve been saving for a rainy day. They’re also getting Dont’a Hightower back on defense, so I’m expecting a ton of negative 1-yard rushes out of the shotgun from DeMarco Murray. The line has already swung to +11 as of Thursday afternoon, which would make me extremely confidant in taking the Patriots at 9.5. But I’m a Big Moron, so I changed my pick at the last second to Eagles +9.5.