Week 13 Fantasy Football Power Rankings: Brady will find way minus top targets

Let’s put a fantasy spin on the this week’s action by ranking the games in expected order of point-producing relevance using the over/under totals from Las Vegas, specifically as listed at VegasInsider.com.

Note: Dollar values in parentheses denote a player’s current week price in the Yahoo Daily Fantasy game. It is displayed for point of reference.

The Triplets

1. Panthers at Saints, Sunday 4:25 p.m. O/U 49.5: Drew Brees ($39) looked bad last week but the Texans defense is playing top-notch right now. The Saints offense has been about as expected, however, averaging a third-best 401 yards per game. But the Panthers defense has been even better, allowing an NFC fewest 312 yards per game. Cam Newton ($40) kills the Saints (who doesn’t?) with five passing TDs and two rushing scores in his last two games against them. The Panthers defense leads the NFL with 18 picks and four pick-sixes. Devin Funchess ($14) is getting a lot of snaps now (118 last two weeks) and could surprise with a great schedule down the stretch. My Breakfast Table Podcast guest host, Davis Mattek of Fantasy Insiders and Rotowire, says Funchess is figuring it out after essentially playing in a high school offense in college.

[Yahoo Daily Fantasy: $10 could win you $50K in our $350K contest for Week 13]

2. Eagles at Patriots, Sunday 4:25, O/U 49: The Eagles defense looks like it has packed it in so Tom Brady ($41) could still be elite this week even stripped of all of his top weapons, with Rob Gronkowski not playing. The problem with the Philadelphia offense is that no one can take the top off the defense. Speed kills in the NFL and that’s been true forever, which is why you don’t let productive burners walk two years in a row. I do think this total is high, mostly because I have no faith right now in the Eagles offense to contribute much to it.

3. Colts at Steelers, Sunday 8:30, O/U 48.5: This total seems too low. The Steelers pass defense is a nightmare. I don’t think anyone can stop Ben Roethlisberger ($33) and those receivers. Martavis Bryant ($26) is a total freak and basically Randy Moss 2.0 with his crazy height and speed. You have to pick your poison because Roethlisberger will make you pay for who you leave your weakest cover guys on given that Markus Wheaton ($10) just posted a 201-yard receiving game. Matt Hasselbeck ($26) is getting it done, somehow. But the Colts average just 345 yards per game. Teams generate about a point every 15 scrimmage yards. Roethlisberger is not viewed as an explosive player but he has three games now over 450 yards passing, trailing only Dan Marino (four) in league history.

Middle Ground

4. Falcons at Buccaneers, Sunday, 1:00, O/U 46: Matt Ryan ($28) is not good this year. Is this a slump or was he always overrated? I believe the latter. Which team has the better triplets? Jameis Winston ($32), Doug Martin ($25) and Mike Evans ($25) have the edge of late. Julio Jones ($35) has slumped when it comes to scoring, generating just two TDs in his past eight games and has only four games this year when he’s found the end zone. We expect greater consistency from elite fantasy options.

5. Jets at Giants, Sunday, 1:00 O/U 45: No Darrelle Revis, it looks like. This game is going over and probably WAY over. The Giants can’t stop anyone in the secondary. The Jets have two elite receivers, with Eric Decker ($28) ranking as the best in football in passer rating on targets. It’s Decker (123.5), Larry Fitzgerald (118.3), Julian Edelman (113.5), Allen Hurns (112) and Julio Jones (111.1). Okay, maybe Jones’ lack of touchdowns of late is one of the all-time flukes. Odell Beckham Jr. ($34) is 12th at 102.5, right behind Travis Benjamin ($18) who I could not have been more wrong about. I tip my cap to Scott Pianowski, who bought in right at the dawn of Benjamin’s emergence.

6. Chiefs at Raiders, Sunday 4:05, O/U 44: The Raiders’ secondary is terrible. I know Andy Reid and Alex Smith ($29) hate touchdowns but this total seems way too low. I don’t think Derek Carr ($35) will have trouble scoring. Is Carr for real based on his sophomore performance? History and especially recent history says that it’s still too early to know. See my article from this week’s Wall Street Journal. Plus I’ve pretty much stopped calling Carr “David” so you know he’s arrived.

7. Ravens at Dolphins, Sunday, 1:00, O/U 43.5: I like Buck Allen ($19) more than the market still. Maybe it’s because people are completely sour on Matt Schaub ($21), who was more than capable as a backup in Week 12. Allen is a complete back with size and running ability and — most impressively — great hands and an innate feel for the passing game. But it stinks that he’s still getting under 70 percent of RB touches.

8. Bengals at Browns, Sunday, 1:00, O/U 43.5: The Bengals may put up 44 by themselves. Why doesn’t Cincy play both Gio Bernard ($19) and Jeremy Hill ($27) like teams used to in the 1970s with Hill the de facto fullback but also a running threat? That would make a running game that has seriously underachieved (19th with 4.0 per carry) given the talent of these backs much harder to read. Tyler Eifert ($20, check status) has 12 touchdowns on 522 receiving yards, the fluke of the year.

9. Broncos at Chargers, Sunday 4:05, O/U 43.5: The Broncos want to be a running team now and that means that C.J. Anderson is probably going to be a more valuable player going forward than Demaryius Thomas ($26). Melvin Gordon ($11) does not have a touchdown yet with just one carry inside the five, where the Chargers have just 12 snaps all year (seven passes). The Panthers lead the league with 38 snaps inside the five. The Rams are last with eight. And 53 percent of plays here are runs.

Defensive battles

10. Jaguars at Titans, Sunday 1:00, O/U 43: I’d like to see what Marcus Mariota ($29) could do with ($32) Blake Bortles’s weapons and in his offense (not that Jacksonville’s scheme is so great but come on with Tennessee).

11. 49ers at Bears, Sunday 1:00, O/U 43: The 49ers average about 13 points per game so this means Vegas thinks the Bears will score 30. Get Jay Cutler ($31) and especially Alshon Jeffery ($33, so good when healthy) into your lineups.

12. Cardinals at Rams, Sunday 1:00, O/U 43: Remember the Cardinals lost to the Rams already this year. It won’t happen again. David Johnson ($10) is an elite talent finally getting touches. Look out, kids.

13. Cowboys at Redskins, Monday 8:30, O/U 42: You can’t play Dez Bryant ($24), proving once again that, in fantasy, good things do NOT come to those who wait.

14. Texans at Bills, Sunday 1:00, O/U 41.5: This game is going way under. I don’t believe at all in either offense. Tyrod Taylor ($28) is an erratic thrower who isn’t healthy enough to run it well. The Texans are long overdue to get throttled. Houston is not good (28th in the Massey-Peabody rankings).

15. Seahawks at Vikings, Sunday 1:00, O/U 41: This game goes way over. Seattle’s defense cannot deal with the pass. Granted, the Vikings don’t really want to pass and Teddy Bridgewater ($22) has regressed, especially off his last five games in 2014. Plus, the Seattle offense is actually really good if the team would just play to it and stop thinking it’s still 2013.

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