Don’t let anyone fool you: it’s the worst time of the year. Remember that as you’re scrolling through this week’s previews.

After all, there are eight division games being played this week (nine if we had discussed the fantasy implications of the Thursday night matchup). There are too many road favorites being overvalued against familiar foes which causes a mental divide as to whether or not it’s best to pick the number or the team. This is why, as you’ll find out soon enough, I hate all of these picks. Repeat: hate. Quarterbacks usually come crashing down in divisional games, making it much easier (for most, anyways) to pick the standout running backs in these types of situations rather than most aerial attacks. But I’m also an idiot, so there’s that.

Here are your Week 13 matchups and movements (and picks.)

(Home team in CAPS)

New York Jets (-2) over NEW YORK GIANTS

Total: 45

As human beings, we’re bred to place all of our idols into some chronological hierarchy. It’s like an obligation that was embedded into us at birth. For instance, tell ten people that Michael Jordan is the greatest basketball player of all time and no matter the response, the next discussion point would be the top two or three behind (or ahead of) him. It’s pointless, sure, but it’s what we do.

Having said that, I would argue that Odell Beckham is playing the best football of anyone at his position over the last few weeks. The Giants pass rush (and the team as a whole, really) is a train wreck and can’t seem to get out of their own way, but nevertheless, Beckham continues to prosper. He’s recorded 56 targets in the last four weeks alone, averaging eight catches for 120 yards and 1.25 touchdowns. Repeat: averaging. Even if Darrelle Revis were to play (although it doesn’t appear to be shaping up that way), there’s no doubt in my mind who would win that battle. Spoiler Alert: not Revis.

Overall, however, the Jets are undefeated when Ryan Fitzpatrick doesn’t have a beard. I like those odds.

ST. LOUIS RAMS (+5.5) over Arizona Cardinals

Total: 43

Todd Gurley is a lot like The Walking Dead. It seems like people are only into it anymore because of the time invested into the first six-or-so seasons. If we sat some inuit down (likely having never heard of it being in an igloo and all) and forced him to watch a few episodes, his immediate response would be, “Wait, why doesn’t anyone just watch the final 30 seconds and skip the other 59 minutes of this shit?”. And that’s where we’re at with Gurley.

As an owner, you experienced his ceiling and, therefore, know what he’s capable of. That’s the only reason he continues to be started in 100 percent of lineups. As a cog in Jeff Fisher’s 8-8 machine (my next band name), however, the Rams star back has now averaged 55 yards on a clip of 3.13 YPA in his last four games. Sit that same inuit down to watch tape of Gurley beyond Week 8 and he would probably just ask to finish the rest of The Walking Dead.

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (-1) over Atlanta Falcons

Total: 46

Having thrown 11 interceptions in his last seven games, Matt Ryan is his own worst enemy even more so than Lit. Turnovers tend to regress, but a league-high four interceptions in the red zone? There are no means to regress towards when it comes to outright bad decisions. But I expect a line movement in this one, which is why, for the time being, I’m shying away entirely (though will likely have exposure towards Julio Jones in the end).

Seattle Seahawks (-1.5) over MINNESOTA VIKINGS

Total: 42

Allow me to be the first to say that, despite the fact that I would never wish ill-will or injury upon any player (this is just a game, after all), I’m really going to miss Jimmy Graham and the Seahawks constant effort to be that kid that always attempted to hammer the star-shaped peg into the circular hole.

Think back to Week 9. If I had told you a receiver in this particular game would stand out and lead in any one category, you would think Stefon Diggs had set some kind of rookie record, right? Well, upon averaging six receptions for 105 yards in his first four starts, Diggs has now averaged, a line of 4-46 in his last four.

Per Chris Wesseling’s Next Gen Stats notebook, it’s actually Doug Baldwin who leads the league with 662 receiving yards from the slot. Furthermore, Baldwin has been targeted at least six times in each of his last three games, averaging a line of 6-113-1.33. Considering Teddy Bridgewater has thrown the fewest touchdown passes of any quarterback who’s started every game this year, it appears to be more of a Seattle-type game come Sunday.

San Francisco 49ers (+7) over CHICAGO BEARS

Total: 43.5

I’m convinced Jim Tomsula owns Shaun Draughn on his fantasy team. That’s the only logical explanation for Draughn taking part in 100 percent of offensive snaps last week (90.5 percent the week prior). Because of his usage, the new 49ers starter has actually accumulated the 11th-most total yards among running backs since Week 9.

The numbers say the Bears are a slightly above-average team with a competent defense, but I’m expecting movement in favor of San Francisco prior to kickoff. Three wins in the last four games will make an underrated team overvalued quite quickly.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+2.5) over TENNESSEE TITANS

Total: 43.5

Allen Robinson has caught six touchdowns in his last seven games while Julius Thomas has recorded two of his own in the last couple of weeks. With no Allen Hurns available, both should be considered whether it’s daily or weekly fantasy you’re playing.

Kansas City Chiefs (-3) over OAKLAND RAIDERS

Total: 44.5

Many will think that Derek Carr is no longer the guy they had rostered at the beginning of the season due to recency bias and that couldn’t be further from the truth. If you take out the egg he laid against Detroit (a common theme for quarterbacks opposing the Lions nowadays), Carr has actually averaged 316.5 yards and 3.25 touchdowns in four of his last five games. He’s about the only thing keeping the Raiders afloat considering Latavius Murray has stumbled to a clip of 2.49 YPA in his last two.

Travis Kelce and the quan, however, are about the only places you’ll want your exposure.

Oakland has allowed only 0.87 fantasy points fewer to opposing tight ends on a weekly basis than New Orleans has and yet everyone remains focused on what’s taking place in the Super Dome. If Kyle Rudolph and Eric Ebron hadn’t of dropped those WIDE OPEN touchdowns recently, than Oakland would be far and away our weekly target at the tight end position. Greg Olsen is more expensive than Kelce (or anyone at his position for that matter) at FanDuel and, though that may be logical, it’s nonsense to pay for him with the other likely to produce similar results.

BUFFALO BILLS (-3) over Houston Texans

Total: 42

In a shameless attempt to kill two birds with one stone (and because I have only so many original ideas before I run out of content to write), allow me to direct you towards our Week 13 Survivor Pool rankings for the explanation in this one. Don’t worry, I’ll wait right here while you click the link.

(Twiddling thumbs…)

All finished? Ok, let’s continue.

Baltimore Ravens (+4) over MIAMI DOLPHINS

Total: 43

Ryan Tannehill is favored by more than field goal in a professional football game.

CLEVELAND BROWNS (+9.5) over Cincinnati Bengals

Total: 43.5

Wait…who is that at quarterback? Oh, it’s…it’s…Good God!! THAT’S AUSTIN DAVIS’ MUSIC!!!

If Andy Dalton were anyone else, most would be taking his fantasy stock much more seriously. But because his two worst performances — a 231-yard, two turnover day at Pittsburgh and that abysmal outing on Monday night against Houston — came within two weeks of each other, everyone remains down on him. Those two games, after all, were two-thirds of only three games in which Dalton has finished with one touchdown or less. In his eight other starts, he’s thrown and/or rushed for multiple scores.

Opponents pass on Cincinnati 65.56 percent of the time — a portion of that is admittedly due to the opposition being in catch-up mode by the time the fourth quarter rolls around — but I like the Browns to favor the ground game with Austin Davis back in our lives.

How do you feel about that, Davis?

(Did I mention I’m an idiot?)

Denver Broncos (-4) over SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

Total: 43

Remember that first or second-round pick our “experts” told you to use on C.J. Anderson back in August? (Ok, ok. That may have been me.) Well, it appears that pick that has been rendered useless for all of 13 weeks is now about to save your season.

With Brock Osweiler under center, the Broncos have averaged 5.13 YPA. Ronnie Hillman has looked better in those two starts, averaging 18 carries for 80 yards at a clip of 4.60 YPA, but it’s C.J. Anderson who has received 33 touches and averaged 6.37 YPA on the ground. With the Chargers allowing the most fantasy points to opposing running backs, Anderson is likely to become the savior of your fantasy season.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-9.5) over Philadelphia Eagles

Total: 48.5

With Rob Gronkowski sidelined, Scott Chandler set season-highs in snaps (80.6%), targets (11), receptions (5), and yards (58). Your guess is as good as mine when it comes to who will or won’t take the field for New England this week, but the Patriots are still implied to score 29.5 points (even with only corpses running routes).

Despite the fact that their backfield remains a befuddled mess — James White out-snapped LeGarrette Blount and Brandon Bolden against Denver, but Bolden produced more yards than either — Tom Brady is going to score many points (obviously) against an Eagles secondary that has allowed a 15-1 TD-INT ratio in the last four weeks.

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (+7) over Carolina Panthers

Total: 50

I hate this game. I hate the fact that I’ll be forced to pay for Cam Newton like everyone else. I hate that the Panthers are clearly being overvalued on the road. I hate that I traded for Mark Ingram in one of my long-time leagues a few weeks ago and know stupid stats like how Carolina has allowed only 45 rushing yards in their last two games. I hate how that last number is a total, not an average. I hate the fact that the Saints play 1000x better at home, but there is no possible way they cover. And most of all, I hate the fact that I still picked them.

Basically, there is nothing I hate more than this game.

Dallas Cowboys (+4) over WASHINGTON

Total: 42

Remember what I just said? Come to find out, I lied…

***

(Editor’s Note: The Indianapolis Colts–Pittsburgh Steelers matchup had no line posted at the time of submission and therefore wasn’t previewed.)

Last Week: 9-6

Week 12 Exposure: Matthew Stafford, Brian Hoyer, Eddie Lacy, Spencer Ware, Chris Ivory, T.J. Yeldon, DeAndre Hopkins, Julio Jones, Larry Fitzgerald, Gary Barnidge, Jordan Reed, Jets, Chiefs

Total: 88-65-6, 57.5 percent

Week 13 Exposure: Jay Cutler, Ben Roethlisberger, C.J. Anderson, David Johnson, LeSean McCoy, Odell Beckham, Antonio Bryant, Alshon Jeffery, DeVante Parker, Travis Kelce, Chiefs