Week 13 NFL Picks: Spread Advice, Best Odds and Full Game Predictions – Bleacher Report
Even at this late stage of the NFL season, almost every game still has some sort of playoff significance. This should create a fun weekend of football.
Gil Brandt of NFL.com noted how many teams are still in the running for the postseason:
There are 28 teams within 2 games of a playoff spot — most through Week 12 since 1990. 2015 28 2002 27 2013 26 2012 26 2004 26
— Gil Brandt (@Gil_Brandt) December 2, 2015
This creates competitive games throughout the league instead of the usual separation with a number of teams already focused on the future and draft picks. Although the games won’t necessarily be any easier to pick, it will at least be enjoyable to watch.
Despite the challenge, here is a look at predictions for the upcoming week and a breakdown of the best picks against the spread.
Away | Predicted Score | Home | ATS Pick |
Green Bay Packers | 17-21 | Detroit Lions | DET +3 |
Atlanta Falcons | 13-20 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | TB -1.5 |
Cincinnati Bengals | 30-17 | Cleveland Browns | CIN -9.5 |
New York Jets | 24-27 | New York Giants | NYG +2 |
Seattle Seahawks | 16-13 | Minnesota Vikings | SEA -1 |
Houston Texans | 20-24 | Buffalo Bills | BUF -3 |
Arizona Cardinals | 28-13 | St. Louis Rams | ARI -5.5 |
San Francisco 49ers | 10-16 | Chicago Bears | SF +7 |
Jacksonville Jaguars | 24-21 | Tennessee Titans | JAX +2.5 |
Baltimore Ravens | 28-27 | Miami Dolphins | BAL +4 |
Kansas City Chiefs | 20-14 | Oakland Raiders | KC -3 |
Denver Broncos | 31-17 | San Diego Chargers | DEN -4.5 |
Carolina Panthers | 30-13 | New Orleans Saints | CAR -7 |
Philadelphia Eagles | 21-34 | New England Patriots | NE -9.5 |
Indianapolis Colts | 20-24 | Pittsburgh Steelers | IND +7 |
Dallas Cowboys | 14-23 | Washington Redskins | WAS -4.5 |
Spread info via Odds Shark
All spread info courtesy of Odds Shark.
Top Bets
Detroit Lions (+3) vs. Green Bay Packers
Mike Roemer/Associated Press
Although the Green Bay Packers are still in good position to make the playoffs, they have not looked good lately, with four losses in the last five games. The offense has struggled immensely, with 16 or fewer points scored in three of those games.
Pro Bowl quarterback Aaron Rodgers admitted a lot of the problem is the passing attack, per Genaro C. Armas of the Associated Press:
We’re not even being effective enough anywhere near our potential, I think. The positive signs are that we’re running the ball better. The line’s been blocking really well, they had a great game of pass protection and running the ball. We’ve just got to do a better job of winning consistently and completing passes.
Rodgers, who is usually one of the more accurate passers in the NFL, has completed only 53.8 percent of his passes during this rough stretch and hasn’t been able to rely on any of his receivers to be a consistent weapon.
It is tough to imagine much change against the Detroit Lions, a defense that has been red-hot since the Week 9 bye. After allowing 45 points in a blowout loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, this unit has allowed only 43 points combined during a three-game winning streak, including an 18-16 win over the Packers.
Meanwhile, the offense has come alive lately thanks to more consistent play from Matthew Stafford and some added balance in the rushing attack from Ameer Abdullah. If this continues, the Lions have what it takes to pull off the rare season sweep over Green Bay.
Carolina Panthers (-7) at New Orleans Saints
Brandon Wade/Associated Press
It might finally be time to take the Carolina Panthers seriously.
As if the 11-0 record wasn’t impressive enough, the Panthers continue to prove themselves with dominant performances every week. Cam Newton has helped lead the No. 3 scoring offense in the NFL to pair with the No. 3 scoring defense led by Luke Kuechly and Josh Norman.
Norman actually might have his own argument for MVP votes based on this stat from Pro Football Focus:
#Panthers Josh Norman leads the league with a passer rating allowed of 38.1, teams still better off throwing the ball away than testing him
— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) November 29, 2015
A quarterback taking the ball and throwing it directly out of bounds equals a better rating than those targeting Norman this season. That tells you everything you need to know about how well he is playing within this elite defense.
Conversely, nothing has gone right for the New Orleans Saints this season. The defense has been embarrassing all year, but recently, the offense has also been an issue, scoring just 20 points in the last two games combined.
With the Panthers likely creating little space with their swarming defense, the Saints are going to struggle to score once again and could end up losing a blowout at home.
Denver Broncos (-4.5) at San Diego Chargers
Dustin Bradford/Getty Images
Although Brock Osweiler doesn’t deserve all the credit for the Denver Broncos’ upset win over the New England Patriots, he certainly played a big role in the win. In just his second career start, Osweiler passed for 270 yards plus a go-ahead touchdown in the final moments of regulation.
However, his most important contribution to the offense might be his fit within the system, as ESPN’s Trey Wingo explained:
The two best rushing performances of The Broncos season? Both of Brock Osweiler’s starts. He allows Gary Kubiak to run the offense he wants
— trey wingo (@wingoz) November 30, 2015
Unlike Peyton Manning, Osweiler is able to work from under center. This opens up a lot more possibilities with Gary Kubiak’s offense, especially in the run game. C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman proved that by combining for 172 rushing yards on 29 carries against the Patriots.
Against a San Diego Chargers defense allowing a league-worst 4.9 yards per carry, this duo could be in line for another big game.
San Diego does have the offense to make up for this weakness in many games, but the Denver defense has simply been too strong this year for Philip Rivers and Co. to keep up on the scoreboard. The quarterback will likely be under pressure all game long, and this should be an easy road win for the Broncos.
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