Start ‘Em or Sit ‘Em: Week 13 Start 'Em or Sit 'Em
Start ‘Em or Sit ‘Em is geared toward redraft leagues but can also be used for setting DFS lineups, as these are the players I’ll likely be filling out my cash lineups with on Sunday. As is the case each week, I’m ignoring the Thursday night game.
QUARTERBACK
Start of the Week: Alex Smith at Raiders: This is a different Raiders team under coach Jack Del Rio, but Smith has had recent success against the Silver and Black. In his past three starts against the Raiders, Smith has completed 55-of-86 passes (64 percent) for 818 yards (9.51 YPA) and a 9:0 TD:INT ratio. That’s about as good as Smith gets, and the Raiders still have a very weak pass defense that is allowing 294.6 yards per game and the eighth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Smith is coming off arguably his best game of the season, throwing for 255 yards and a pair of touchdowns against an above-average Bills pass defense. He challenged Buffalo vertically and hooked up with Jeremy Maclin for a number of lengthy gains. There will be opportunities to do the same again on Sunday. And Smith hasn’t been turning the ball over, as he hasn’t tossed an interception since Week 3. Sure, the Chiefs are a balanced, run-preferred offense, but Smith is doing enough the return value, especially with his legs. He’s rushed for at least 30 yards in four-straight games and 179 yards in total over that span with one touchdown. Ultra-cheap on DFS sites, priced as QB22 on FanDuel, Smith is in play as a punt and a must-start in two-quarterback season-long leagues with top-12 upside.
Starts
Jay Cutler vs. 49ers: This spot would be a lot better for Cutler if the Bears and 49ers weren’t two of the slowest-paced teams in the league. But there should be enough of a floor here to make Cutler worthy of streaming consideration Sunday. He’s posted at least 17 fantasy points in six of his past eight starts. The 49ers are 31st against the pass in Football Outsiders’ DVOA and have been even worse on the road. San Francisco allows 289 yards passing per game on the season, and that number jumps to 314.4 in road games. That also includes a pitiful 191-yard effort from Nick Foles. Cutler should be a lock for 250-plus yards and flirt with multiple touchdowns with Alshon Jeffery in a prime spot as healthy as he’s been all year and the rest of the Bears’ weapons at full strength.
Marcus Mariota vs. Jaguars: Mariota’s three touchdown passes last week against the Raiders carried him and helped players win weeks and take down DFS tournaments. But the rookie wasn’t efficient whatsoever, completing just 45.9 percent of his passes and averaging 5.89 YPA. Mariota has topped 231 yards passing once in his past six starts, and one of those included a 231-yard, 0:0 TD:INT effort against these same Jaguars two weeks back. Mariota was able to buoy that stat line with his first rushing score of the season, however. But that game was also on a short week on the road for Thursday Night Football. With a full seven days between games and getting the Jaguars’ 30th-ranked pass defense in DVOA at home, Mariota is worth streaming consideration. The Titans’ “weapons” at receiver have surely limited Mariota’s output, but Kendall Wright (knee) has had a chance to knock the rust off and is back to 100 percent. The Jaguars have allowed multiple touchdown passes seven times and surrender the fourth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks.
Ryan Fitzpatrick at Giants: As mentioned above, this battle between the two teams that call East Rutherford, New Jersey home has some shootout potential. This isn’t a true road game for Fitzpatrick. In six starts at MetLife Stadium this season, Fitzpatrick has a 14:7 TD:INT ratio and has tossed multiple touchdowns in every one of them. The Giants have been dreadful against the pass, ranking 25th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA and giving up the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. They allow over 315 passing yards per game. And the Jets are the league’s top red-zone offense, scoring a touchdown 72.97 percent of the time they’re inside the 20-yard line. Fitzpatrick has really meshed well with big-bodied WRs Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker. According to Rich Hribar’s Week 13 Worksheet, Marshall (19) and Decker (18) are second and third in red-zone targets. Both are as good a bets as anyone to score any given week. Fitzpatrick is also sneaky-athletic and has rushed for over 30 yards three times and scored a pair of touchdowns.
Eli Manning vs. Jets: This will be viewed as a contrarian, off-the-board play to many, but Manning is quietly in a really good spot coming off a disastrous Week 12 against the Redskins that saw him toss three interceptions. Week 13 isn’t loaded with projected high-scoring games. Jets-Giants has a Vegas total of 45 points, but this one could easily sneak into the fifties. The Giants don’t play sound defense against the pass or the run, and the Jets are going to be without arguably their two-best corners in Darrelle Revis (concussion) and Marcus Williams (knee). Revis shadows No. 1 receivers, and Williams leads the team in interceptions, despite being the dime corner. Antonio Cromartie and Buster Skrine are left outside and are followed up by Dexter McDougle, Darrin Walls, and Dee Milliner. It’s not a scary group, and Odell Beckham should go bananas. The Giants also don’t have a running game, and run defense is the strength of the Jets anyway, while the offensive line for the G-Men should be getting two starters back this week. This sets up well for Manning to have to throw the ball 40-50 times in a date between two higher-paced offenses.
Sits
Tyrod Taylor vs. Texans: Entering last week, Taylor had thrown for fewer than 200 yards in 3-of-4 games and managed four total touchdowns over that span. He rebounded and lit up the Chiefs for 291 yards and three touchdowns, while rushing for 46 yards and finishing as the overall QB5 for Week 12. There will be owners chasing those points and Taylor’s big-time upside, but this doesn’t look like a good spot to do it with a loaded slate and no teams on bye. The Texans are playing really strong defense and have been doing so for the past month. They’ve allowed just one passing score over their past four games to go along with four interceptions. Houston has shut down Drew Brees, Andy Dalton, and Ryan Fitzpatrick over that time. The Texans field Football Outsiders’ sixth-ranked pass defense in DVOA and allow the ninth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks.
Russell Wilson at Vikings: Wilson is on fire right now with 605 yards and eight touchdown passes to zero interceptions the past two weeks. He’s put up 25 and 35 fantasy points, respectively, for his two-best finishes of the season. The Vikings’ pass defense is much better than the 49ers’ and Steelers’ versions Wilson has seen in back-to-back games. And both the Seahawks and Vikings are bottom-12 in plays per game. This figures to be a slow-paced, grind-it-out, run-centric, cold-weather battle between two old-school-type teams jockeying for playoff position. Coach Mike Zimmer’s Vikings defense allows just 239.5 passing yards per game and the fifth-fewest fantasy points to QBs. No. 1 CB Xavier Rhodes had a bounce-back game Week 12 and effectively shut down Julio Jones.
Philip Rivers vs. Broncos: Rivers gets his first date of the season with the Broncos’ league-best pass defense. He’ll get them again in the meaningless Week 17. But Rivers is coming off his latest monster game, an impressive 300-yard, four-touchdown thrashing of the Jaguars on the road. Rivers has a number of 20-plus point efforts this season, but recently sprinkled in a six-point dud at home against the Chiefs in Week 11. Back home, this isn’t a spot to be looking to fire Rivers back up. He doesn’t have any receivers who can effectively separate from the Broncos’ defensive backs in what will likely be a struggle for the Chargers’ passing game. Denver allows just 218.1 passing yards and one touchdown per game to quarterbacks. It has also allowed the fewest fantasy points to the quarterback position by more than 22 fantasy points. The rest of the top-10 is separated by a total of 27 fantasy points. With a banged-up offensive line, Rivers is outside the top-12 this week.
Drew Brees vs. Panthers: Brees missed the game between these two teams earlier this season with a shoulder injury. The 11-0 Panthers seem to be getting better as the season goes along and are coming off a Thanksgiving shellacking of the Cowboys. Carolina is well rested and fields Football Outsiders’ No. 2 pass defense in DVOA. The Panthers have allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. Benching Drew Brees in the Superdome doesn’t seem like the greatest idea, but this is the spot to do it. Carolina is the only team that has picked off more passes than it has allowed touchdowns. And No. 1 CB Josh Norman essentially takes half the field away.
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