Matchups: Silva's Week 13 Matchups

1:00PM ET Games

NY Jets @ NY Giants

The game total on Jets-Giants is 45 points with Todd Bowles‘ club favored by two. Gang Green’s team total is 23.5. Despite the pedestrian over-under, this game has sneaky shootout potential with Darrelle Revis (concussion) absent on one side and the Giants ranked 25th in Football Outsiders’ pass-defense DVOA on the other. … The G-Men have played improved run defense over their last three games, holding Bucs, Patriots, and Redskins RBs to 284 yards and one touchdown on 74 runs (3.84 YPC). Chris Ivory has heated back up during that same span, however, averaging 4.72 yards per carry on 17.3 touches per game. Ivory’s 31-yard touchdown run in last week’s win over the Dolphins occurred on a dominant individual effort, blasting through several defenders that appeared to have Ivory wrapped up. On the season, the Giants are still a sub-par 17th in run-defense DVOA. This should be viewed as an above-average matchup for Ivory, who ranks fifth in the league in carries (185) and sixth in rushing yards (766). … Picked off twice in back-to-back games entering Week 12, Ryan Fitzpatrick rebounded to shred Miami for 277 yards and four touchdowns while relentlessly exploiting the Brandon Marshall–Brent Grimes mismatch last week. Fitzpatrick nearly had a fifth score, but it was dropped just short of the pylon by Eric Decker. Although the Giants’ defensive personnel has improved with the returns of RCB Prince Amukamara (pectoral) and RE Jason Pierre-Paul (finger), DC Steve Spagnuolo‘s unit still got eaten up by Washington’s passing game last week, generating zero sacks and giving up a 63-yard touchdown bomb to DeSean Jackson as Kirk Cousins finished as the fantasy QB11 on the week. This is a good-looking matchup for Fitzpatrick, who is in play as a lower-end streamer and surefire two-QB-league starter.

Fitzpatrick’s target distribution since the Jets’ Week 5 bye: Decker 58; Marshall 57; Ivory and Bilal Powell 14; Jeremy Kerley 12; Devin Smith 11; Quincy Enunwa 10; Jeff Cumberland and Kenbrell Thompkins 8. … Although his Week 13 draw is not quite ideal versus super-talented Giants LCB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, Marshall has proven matchup proof with arguably the highest weekly floor of all WR1s. The No. 6 overall receiver in PPR points, Marshall (6’5/229) has a three-inch, 45-pound size advantage on lanky Rodgers-Cromartie (6’2/184). … Decker has hit pay dirt and/or topped 80 yards in all ten of his 2015 appearances. Jets OC Chan Gailey is frequently utilizing rub routes to spring Decker open in scoring position. Decker’s Week 13 matchup is also better than Marshall’s against Giants slot CB Trevin Wade, a mediocre athlete who stands 5’10/192 to Decker’s 6’3/217. Decker is an every-week WR2. … Smith beat Dolphins weekly whipping boy Jamar Taylor for his first career touchdown last Sunday. Smith will have a much tougher time in Amukamara’s smothering coverage this week and is safe to ignore.

Two-point home dogs against the Jets, the Giants’ Week 13 team total is 21.5. … As the Jets rank No. 1 in run-defense DVOA but will be missing Revis, this is a mouth-watering draw for Eli Manning with the G-Men returning home following a narrow road loss in Washington. The Eli-Odell Beckham stack has explosion potential in daily fantasy, as the Giants are likely to lean voluminously on their passing game against an undermanned secondary. With and without Revis, Gang Green has shown ample pass-defense leakiness over its last six games, yielding a combined 15:3 TD-to-INT ratio and four 300-plus-yard passing performances during that stretch. Eli is a trustworthy QB1 play with lots of upside this week. … OC Ben McAdoo has stayed stubbornly committed to a four-man backfield, eliminating each member from serious fantasy-start contention. The Giants’ rushing outlook took yet another hit when RG Geoff Schwartz was lost for the year with a fractured leg last week. Rashad Jennings, Orleans Darkwa, Shane Vereen, and Andre Williams are all waiver wire material in season-long leagues.

Eli’s target distribution coming off the Giants’ Week 11 bye: Beckham 18; Will Tye 8; Rueben Randle 6; Vereen and Dwayne Harris 5; Jerome Cunningham 4; Jennings 3; Hakeem Nicks 2. … No. 1 receiver stat lines against the Jets over their last four games: 13-165-1 (Jarvis Landry), 5-118-2 (DeAndre Hopkins), 3-14-0 (Sammy Watkins), 6-121 (Allen Robinson). Without Revis in play, I like OBJ’s chances of hitting the high end of that range of outcomes. Beckham has topped 100 yards in four straight games, piling up target totals of 9, 17, 12, and 18. With the Giants unlikely to be able to run the ball at all on the Jets, Beckham could conceivably push for 20 targets. As Antonio Cromartie accused OBJ of being a “one-year wonder” before the season, there is also a #NarrativeStreet factor to consider. … Randle caught just 1-of-6 targets in last week’s loss to the Redskins, dropping a pass and having another intercepted. He lost some snaps to newly signed Nicks and is a dangerously low-floor WR3 option. … Harris logged an 84% snap rate against Washington and is a sneaky deep-league flex play against Jets slot CB Buster Skrine, who has so far been a free agent bust while battling injuries. Among 111 qualifiers, Skrine is PFF’s No. 100-graded cornerback in pass coverage since Week 3. … Tye played 66% of the Giants’ snaps coming off the bye, parlaying his eight targets into a season-best 6-74-0 stat line. Although the Jets have permitted the third fewest fantasy points to tight ends, Tye is worth TE1 streamer consideration as a volume play. I think Eli might top 40 attempts this week.

Score Prediction: Giants 24, Jets 23

Arizona @ St. Louis

Cardinals-Rams has a 43-point Vegas total with visiting Arizona favored by six. The Cardinals’ team total is 24.5 points. … Although St. Louis has the perception of posing a daunting matchup for enemy offenses, personnel losses have rendered DC Gregg Williams‘ defense a mediocre-at-best unit of late. The Rams have only four sacks over their last four games, and in their last three have been skewered by Andy Dalton, Joe Flacco, and Jay Cutler for a combined 66-of-95 passing (69.5%), 790 yards (8.32 YPA), and a 7:3 TD-to-INT ratio despite the absence of Steve Smith Sr., Alshon Jeffery‘s Week 10 decoy usage, and Tyler Eifert‘s in-game stinger. Playing indoors with his pass-catcher corps largely healthy, Carson Palmer should be viewed as a high-floor QB1 play with plenty of upside this week. … Injuries to Chris Johnson (tibia) and Andre Ellington (turf toe) have set up exciting rookie David Johnson to operate as Arizona’s feature back for the foreseeble future. Although Johnson has some running limitations between the tackles, he was the most dynamic pass-catching back in this year’s draft class, and in Week 13 will square off with a Rams defense coughing up the fourth most receptions in the league to running backs. Despite having touched the ball only 54 times on offense, Johnson has scored eight all-purpose touchdowns, four on the ground, three through the air, and one on a 108-yard kickoff return. Johnson is a plug-and-play RB2 in the NFL’s No. 1-ranked offense. I expect him to be the highest-owned running back in daily fantasy this week, probably by a good distance.

Vacuuming Palmer’s looks as John Brown and Michael Floyd play through hamstring injuries, Larry Fitzgerald has amassed target totals of 11, 15, 13, and 14 over Arizona’s last four games. Fitzgerald dropped a 7-99 number on St. Louis with Brown and Floyd at or near full strength in the Cardinals’ Week 4 win over the Rams, as coach Bruce Arians frequently got Fitz matched up with linebackers and safeties. Fitzgerald is cash-game viable in DFS this week. … Brown went 7-75 in the Week 4 game and appeared back to full health in last Sunday’s win over the 49ers, pulling in a 48-yard bomb and having a second-quarter touchdown catch negated when Brown stepped out of bounds before the play. Brown’s seven targets against San Francisco were his most since mid-October. With Floyd still limited, Brown has reentered the fantasy WR2 conversation. … Floyd managed two targets against the 49ers, playing 63% of the Cardinals’ offensive snaps. Until he is clearly restored as a full-time player, Floyd will be a boom-bust WR3 fantasy option. The Rams have allowed the third fewest fantasy points to wide receivers.

As six-point home dogs against the Cardinals, the Rams’ team total is 18.5 points. … Averaging just 3.13 yards per carry during St. Louis’ four-game losing streak, Todd Gurley‘s fantasy owners will need to hang their hats on anticipated volume and a “hope” that the Rams finally show up in an intradivision home game. Otherwise, Gurley’s on-paper outlook is bleak. Arizona is holding opposing running backs to 3.61 YPC and ranks No. 7 in Football Outsiders’ run-defense DVOA. Gurley did drop a 19-146 rushing number on the Cardinals when these teams played in Week 4. He’s a volume-driven, low-end RB1 play in Week 13. … Although Tavon Austin went off for 6-96-2 receiving and 2-20 rushing in St. Louis’ Week 4 upset of Arizona, it should be noted that Kenny Britt was zeroed out by Patrick Peterson in that game, while Tyrann Mathieu went to waste on Stedman Bailey and Jared Cook in the slot. This time around, look for Peterson to shadow Austin on perimeter routes and Mathieu to check him between the numbers. An entirely boom-bust fantasy option, my money is on Austin turning in a dud this week.

Score Prediction: Cardinals 24, Rams 17

Atlanta @ Tampa Bay

Falcons-Bucs has a 46-point total with Tampa favored by 1.5. Facing an Atlanta team that has lost five of its last six games, the Bucs’ team total is a shade below 24 points. … Doug Martin ranks second in the NFL in rushing (1,038) and third in yards per carry (5.14) among backs with at least 100 attempts. In Week 13, Martin will take on a Falcons run defense that is 19th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA after getting gashed by Adrian Peterson and Jerick McKinnon (34-191-2) last week. Look for Martin’s six-game touchdown drought to end against Atlanta, which has permitted the second most rushing TDs in the league (13). … Although Atlanta has ceded a league-high 87 receptions to enemy backs, Charles Sims has failed to reach double-digit touches in four of the past five weeks and has one touchdown since Week 4. At best, Sims is a fantasy RB3. … Jameis Winston came back to Earth following his five-TD outlier week against the Eagles, finishing Week 13 as the overall QB21. Winston has yet to clear 300 passing yards in a game this year, and his seasonal TD-to-INT ratio would be 11:10 without the Philly game. Winston is having a rock-solid rookie season, but his streamer appeal is limited as a low-volume passer on a run-first team, and in a matchup where the Bucs figure to have rushing success.

Winston’s target distribution since Vincent Jackson‘s (knee) Week 11 return: Mike Evans 17; Jackson 16; Cameron Brate 10; Adam Humphries 8; Sims 7; Martin 4. … In his games played with V-Jax healthy, Evans’ target totals are 3, 17, 8, 5, 11, 7, and 10, good for an 8.7 average. In his games with no V-Jax, Evans’ target numbers are 9, 19, and 13, good for a 13.7 average. Although his ceiling is a bit capped with Jackson back, I like Evans’ chances of drawing 8-10 looks in a game where he’ll run most of his routes at Falcons rookie RCB Jalen Collins while V-Jax spends more time on shutdown LCB Desmond Trufant. Evans is a low-end WR1 this week. In a difficult matchup, Jackson is more of a WR3/flex. … Assuming Austin Seferian-Jenkins (shoulder) misses another week, deep-league TE1 streamers may want to give Brate a glance. A second-year UDFA out of Harvard, Brate logged a season-high 62% snap rate in last Sunday’s loss to Indianapolis, parlaying six targets into a 5-53-1 receiving line. Brate beat Colts LCB Greg Toler for a 20-yard touchdown on a post route. Allowing the ninth most fantasy points to tight ends, the Falcons gave up a combined 8-76 number to Vikings TEs last week.

Desperate for a win, the Falcons head to Tampa with a team total just above 22 points. … The return of Devonta Freeman (concussion) will give a big boost to an Atlanta offense that missed his consistent chain-moving and all-purpose presence while dealing with Tevin Coleman‘s lost fumbles, dropped passes, and boom-bust running the past two weeks. Although the Bucs have played shutdown run defense this season, Freeman busted them up for 131 total yards in these teams’ Week 8 meeting and should immediately resume seeing every-down-workhorse usage as a high-end RB1. … Matt Ryan has played poorly in both real life and fantasy this year. He has five multi-interception games — tied with Andrew Luck and Peyton Manning for most in the league — and ranks 17th in fantasy quarterback scoring through 11 games. At the same time, I think this is a good opportunity to use Ryan in daily fantasy tournaments. Freeman’s return improves the Falcons’ offensive outlook as a whole, while Ryan has shredded Tampa Bay for a combined 78-of-100 passing (78%), 902 yards (9.02 YPA), and a 6:1 TD-to-INT ratio since Lovie Smith took over as coach. This year, the Bucs are 24th in Football Outsiders’ pass-defense DVOA and got ripped up by Matt Hasselbeck last week. Ryan dumped 397 yards and two touchdowns on Tampa Bay in Week 8. Particularly if Bucs sack leader Gerald McCoy (hand surgery) can’t play on Sunday, this will be a great matchup for Ryan and he is likely to be lightly owned in DFS.

Ryan’s target distribution since Atlanta’s Week 10 bye: Julio Jones 22; Roddy White 17; Jacob Tamme 9; Leonard Hankerson 7; Terron Ward 6; Patrick DiMarco 4; Coleman and Justin Hardy 4. … In his three meetings with Lovie Smith‘s Bucs defense, Julio has gone 12-162-1, 9-161-2, and 8-119. Fantasy owners need to shake off last week’s dud (5-56-0) against Xavier Rhodes and tee up Jones with confidence in a matchup he unfailingly shreds. I think Julio is worth his price on DFS sites this week. … Tamme’s weekly PPR finishes are TE16, TE10, TE2, TE19, and TE4 when Hankerson misses time. He posted the top-two finish (10-103-1) against these same Bucs in Week 8. With Hankerson (hamstring) likely to sit again, Tamme is neck and neck with Scott Chandler for the top TE1 streamer of the week. … White’s targets have picked up the past two weeks (8, 9), but he has 84 scoreless yards to show for it and is never a realistic WR3 play.

Score Prediction: Falcons 27, Buccaneers 23

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