Lions vs. Packers: Scouting report, prediction – Detroit Free Press
Free Press sports writer Dave Birkett breaks down the Thursday Night Football game at Ford Field.
Fast facts
Detroit Lions (4-7) vs. Green Bay Packers (7-4)
When: 8:25 p.m. Thursday.
Where: Ford Field, Detroit.
Line: Packers by 3.
TV/radio: CBS (Channel 62 in Detroit), WXYT-FM (97.1).
Lions injury report
Out: WR Lance Moore (ankle)
Questionable: WR Calvin Johnson (ankle), K Matt Prater (illness), S Glover Quin (ankle), DT Caraun Reid (ankle), C Travis Swanson (ankle), G Larry Warford (concussion).
Probable: S James Ihedigbo (hamstring), WR Golden Tate (calf), DT Gabe Wright (ankle).
Packers injury report
Out: WR Ty Montgomery (ankle).
Questionable: T Bryan Bulaga (ankle), G T.J. Lang (shoulder), C Corey Linsley (ankle), CB Damarious Randall (knee/hamstring), C/G J.C. Tretter (ankle).
Probable: WR Jared Abbrederis (rib/chest), CB Demetri Goodson (illness), DB Micah Hyde (hip), LB Nate Palmer (foot), G Josh Sitton (back).
Talking points
Playoff chase: The playoff pipe dream is alive and well in Detroit after the Lions won their third straight game last week. For it to live on, they’ll need to beat the Packers on Thursday.
If the Lions win out and get to 9-7, they’ll hold wild-card tie-breakers against virtually every team in the NFC, including Green Bay. Players and coaches insist they aren’t focused on the big picture, but after a 1-7 start, it’s impossible to ignore what’s at stake tonight.
“We’re worried about this one game,” receiver Lance Moore said. “We’re not worried about the playoffs or anything like that. If it’s meant to happen when all the chips have fallen, then so be it. But for us, our focus is this one week.”
Bro code: While the Lions have righted their ship after a rough start, the Packers are sailing the other direction. They’ve lost four of five after starting 6-0, and a big reason for their struggles has been their once high-powered offense.
Quarterback Aaron Rodgers is having an atypical year, and it doesn’t help that his receiving corps has been abysmal. But the Lions are rightfully wary of Rodgers breaking out of his slump.
“Some people might say Aaron Rodgers is not playing great. They might say, ‘Oh, he missed a couple throws here. He missed a couple throws there.’ It’s Aaron Rodgers, bro,” safety Glover Quin said. “It’s Aaron Rodgers. You better take him for who he is.”
Sack dance: Ziggy Ansah ranks second in the NFL with 11 1/2 sacks, behind only J.J. Watt, and he’s on pace to break Robert Porcher’s single-season Lions record of 15 sacks set in 1999.
Ansah has 2 1/2 sacks in five career games against the Packers. And while he usually lines up against the left tackle, Ansah’s path to quarterback Aaron Rodgers could be even easier Thursday if right tackle Bryan Bulaga can’t play because of an ankle injury.
“He’s a guy that it sucks to compete against just because of how good he is, but he’s a guy you’ve got to respect what he’s doing,” Packers guard T.J. Lang said. “He’s a guy that you definitely have to be aware of where he is on the field at every down, because if you can get a double team on him, it’d be kind of stupid not to at least put somebody else over there to get an extra chip on him just the way he’s playing.”
Know the foe
Green Bay Packers (7-4)
Coach: Mike McCarthy (101-53-1 overall, 101-53-1 with Packers).
Key players: QB Aaron Rodgers, WR Randall Cobb, RB Eddie Lacy, LB Clay Matthews, LB Julius Peppers.
Last game: Loss, 17-13 to Chicago Bears.
Last meeting: 2015: Lions 18, Packers 16.
Dave Birkett’s buzz: The Packers have slumped since starting the season with six straight wins and are in danger of being swept in their series with the Lions for the first time since 1991. Green Bay’s sputtering offense has failed to reach 17 points in three of the last five games, and Aaron Rodgers is completing 60.5% of his passes, his lowest total ever as a starter. Lacy has been a bright spot since returning from a groin injury, posting back-to-back 100-yard games, but the Packers are getting little out of their Jordy Nelson-less receiving corps. Cobb has a team-high 53 catches, but Davante Adams and his concrete hands have been one of the biggest disappointments this year. The offensive line will have issues if right tackle Bryan Bulaga can’t play because of an ankle injury. The Packers have a good front seven led by Matthews, Peppers and defensive lineman Mike Daniels.
Scouting report
Lions’ run offense vs. Packers’ run defense
The Lions have shown signs of life in the run game the last two weeks, topping 100 yards on the ground in wins over the Oakland Raiders and Philadelphia Eagles. Not surprisingly, that coincides with Ameer Abdullah playing a bigger role on offense.
Abdullah appears to have eliminated the fumble problems he battled early in the year and is coming off a career-best 63-yard day against the Eagles. Joique Bell will see time in short-yardage and four-minute situations for the Lions, who are tied for last in the NFL in rushing offense (74.5 yards per game).
The Packers held the Lions to just 45 yards rushing last month, but rank just 23rd against the run overall (112.8 yards per game). Defensive lineman Mike Daniels leads a stout front, but the Packers miss inside linebacker Sam Barrington.
Edge: Packers
Lions’ pass offense vs. Packers’ pass defense
The Lions didn’t have much success moving the ball through the air or on the ground against Green Bay in their first meeting, but they may have found something against the Eagles last week. Quarterback Matthew Stafford was as sharp as he’s been all season, and he’ll get plenty of single-high safety looks Thursday.
The Packers had rookie cornerback Damarious Randall shadow Johnson last game, and Randall held his own despite leaving briefly with a hamstring injury. Lance Moore won’t play for the Lions on Thursday, but the Lions have plenty of underneath options in Golden Tate, Theo Riddick and Eric Ebron.
Phillip Rivers (503 yards) and Peyton Manning (340 yards) shredded the Packers in back-to-back weeks earlier this year, but Green Bay has been solid against the pass otherwise. Clay Matthews and Julius Peppers are one of the best 1-2 pass-rushing tandems in the NFC.
Edge: Packers
Packers’ run offense vs. Lions’ run defense
Eddie Lacy missed the first Lions game with a groin injury, and all he’s done is post two 100-yard games since returning. Lacy is a big, physical back who wears down opponents, but the Lions have had one of the best rush defenses in the NFL of late.
After a slow start to the season, Haloti Ngata’s play has picked up significantly since the bye. Jason Jones and Stephen Tulloch have played well against the run, too, and the Lions’ nickel cornerbacks are willing tacklers.
The Lions have won three of their last five against the Packers, and there’s a direct correlation to how well they stop the run. The Packers ran for a season-low 47 yards in their 18-16 loss to the Lions last month. In their two victories over the Lions since 2013, Lacy has rushed for 99 and 100 yards.
Edge: Lions
Packers’ pass offense vs. Lions’ pass defense
Darius Slay has emerged as one of the best cover cornerbacks in the NFL this year, and the Lions are counting on him to lock up Randall Cobb on Thursday. Slay shut Cobb down in Week 10, and teams don’t respect the rest of Green Bay’s receiving corps.
James Jones has sprung a few big plays this year, but he’s not a true deep threat. And Davante Adams is looking more and more like a second-round bust. Adams caught just 10 of 21 passes thrown his way against the Lions earlier this year and is easily flustered by press coverage.
The Packers still have Aaron Rodgers, one of the two best quarterbacks in the game, but they’ll have their hands full protecting him if right tackle Bryan Bulaga can’t play. Ziggy Ansah is second in the NFL with 11.5 sacks and having a monster year.
Edge: Packers
Special teams
The Lions have one of the stronger kicking games in the NFL. Sam Martin is the reigning NFC Special Teams Player of the Week, and Matt Prater, who missed a couple days of practice because of illness this week, is a perfect 14 for 14 on field goal attempts.
Mason Crosby is 19 of 21 on field goals with a long of 56 yards for Green Bay. The Packers have one of the best punt cover units in the NFL, but they gave up a 104-yard kick return to Abdullah in the first meeting that turned the game the Lions’ way.
Edge: Lions
Overall
The Lions and Packers are trending in different directions, with the Lions winning three straight to climb back into the playoff race and the Packers losing four of five after a 6-0 start.
The Lions have got their season back on track thanks to an improved defense, especially against the run, and an offense that’s taking better care of the ball. As long as those two trends continue Thursday, they have a chance to sweep the season series from the Packers for the first time since 1991.
Green Bay is the more talented team, however, and Rodgers seems long overdue for a big game. With Lacy back on the field and running well, tonight could be that night.
Pick: Packers 26, Lions 20.
Check out more staff predictions here.
Join us at 8:25 p.m. Thursday night for a Lions-Packers live blog!
Contact Dave Birkett: [email protected]. Follow him on Twitter @davebirkett.
Download our Lions Xtra app for free on Apple and Android!
This entry passed through the Full-Text RSS service – if this is your content and you’re reading it on someone else’s site, please read the FAQ at fivefilters.org/content-only/faq.php#publishers.
