Conference championship week picks: SEC, ACC, Big Ten, Pac-12, more – CBSSports.com
Sometimes I’m right. I can also be wrong, of course, but I’m going to be here every Wednesday with picks against the spread for the entire SEC slate. This week, with only one SEC game, I decided to take on every dang conference championship game on the schedule. Expect some ATS trends to sway my judgment as much as inside information or the old-fashioned hunch.
SEC Championship: Florida vs. Alabama (-17.5): I have no idea how Florida’s offense is going to score touchdowns against Alabama, and given the state of the Gators’ field goal kicking, I’m not sure there are any sure-fire scoring opportunities outside of defense or special teams. Now, will Derrick Henry be a little gassed after 46 carries against Auburn? Maybe. Will Jalen Tabor or Vernon Hargreaves force a turnover against Jake Coker? Sure! But even with those scenarios, I still see Alabama winning this game by three touchdowns. Pick: Tide -17.5.
Click here for SportsLine’s projection and pick for Crimson Tide-Gators
Big Ten Championship: Michigan State vs. Iowa (+3.5): Michigan State’s ability to grind out wins in tight games should favor the Spartans against an Iowa team that is more than willing to play that same kind of game, but is it possible the Mark Dantonio magic has run out? Iowa’s only 6-5 against-the-spread in lined games, but all five ATS losses have missed the number by a total of 9.5 points. Las Vegas has a pretty good read on the Hawkeyes, and if the oddsmakers think Iowa can hang within a field goal, I think this ground game can lead Kirk Ferentz to his first Big Ten title since 2004. Pick: Hawkeyes +3.5.
Click here for SportsLine’s projection and pick for Spartans-Hawkeyes
ACC Championship: North Carolina vs. Clemson (-5.5): This game will be decided up front as a big North Carolina offensive line that has played 20-plus games together battles a feisty Tigers front that wrecked shop against Miami and Florida State. Clemson’s defense hasn’t been as sharp since the Tigers locked up the ACC Atlantic in that win against the Seminoles, while UNC running back Elijah Hood has 467 yards and five touchdowns in his last three games. If the Tar Heels can establish the run and avoid third-and-long, I think we could be in for a thrilling back-and-forth between Marquise Williams and Deshaun Watson where the last team with the ball will have a shot to win the game. Pick: Tar Heels +5.5.
Click here for SportsLine’s projection and pick for Tigers-Tar Heels
Pac-12 Championship: Stanford vs. USC (+4.5): A lot has happened for both teams since Stanford’s 41-31 win earlier this year, including a change at head coach with Clay Helton now in charge and Christian McCaffrey’s emergence as a Heisman Trophy contender. While the Cardinal have playoff hopes (albeit ones that require a lot of help), the Trojans are playing for the program’s first conference championship since 2008 and an opportunity to compete in the Rose Bowl. If Kevin Hogan plays as well on Saturday night as he did against Notre Dame, then the Cardinal will win, but I’ve got a hunch this rematch will be a field goal game. Pick: Trojans +4.5.
Click here for SportsLine’s projection and pick for Cardinal-Trojans
American Athletic Conference Championship: Temple at Houston (-6.5): Temple looked great against UConn last week, putting together arguably its most complete performance of the season in a 27-3 win. The Huskies’ limited offense, however, presents a far different challenge than Greg Ward Jr. and the high-powered Houston Cougars. Yes, Houston’s loss to UConn should have me favoring the Owls here based on common opponent, but common opponent scores cannot erase the 555-yard performance against Navy from my brain. I think Houston is the better team and won’t be losing at home in the first AAC title game. Pick: Cougars -6.5.
Click here for SportsLine’s projection and pick for Cougars-Owls
Mountain West Championship: Air Force at San Diego State (-4.5): San Diego State has been at its best in the Mountain West, riding Donnell Pumphrey’s 6.1 yards per touch average to an undefeated conference record. The Aztecs caught some breaks with their schedule, given the strength of the MW’s West Division compared to the MW Mountain, but a one-dimensional Air Force team should not scare a seasoned, defensive veteran like Rocky Long. The Falcons made life uncomfortable for Michigan State in September, but its most impressive wins came against Boise State and Utah State, two teams that I might consider underdogs to San Diego State on a neutral field. Pick: Aztecs -4.5.
Click here for SportsLine’s projection and pick for Aztecs-Falcons
Conference USA Championship: Southern Miss vs. Western Kentucky (-7.5): This game would be way more fun to play with a pick on the over (72) and root for touchdowns from the two most potent offenses in the league. Western Kentucky and Southern Miss each average over 500 yards per game and average more than seven yards per play, so I think I’d take the over on anything under 80. It’s awesome to see Southern Miss back in contention after a tough couple seasons for Todd Monken, but I think WKU gets the win here, close. Pick: Golden Eagles +7.5
Click here for SportsLine’s projection and pick for Hilltoppers-Golden Eagles
MAC Championship (Friday): Northern Illinois vs. Bowling Green (-12): How Toledo, which was ranked in the Top 25 for several weeks this season, missed out on the MAC title game has to be one of now-Iowa State coach Matt Campbell’s biggest disappointments from an otherwise successful run with the Rockets. Northern Illinois has maintained a dominance in that division that is almost unparalleled, matching Marshall (1997-2002) with a league-best six straight MAC title game appearances. The Huskies are in a familiar place against a familiar opponent, facing Bowling Green for the third straight year. There is no way the Falcons run away with this game. Pick: Huskies +12.
Click here for SportsLine’s projection and pick for Falcons-Huskies
Christian McCaffrey and Stanford have a rematch with USC for the Pac-12 title. (USATSI)This entry passed through the Full-Text RSS service – if this is your content and you’re reading it on someone else’s site, please read the FAQ at fivefilters.org/content-only/faq.php#publishers.
