The Numbers Game: Matchups by the Numbers: Pt. 2
Last week’s column looked at the best and worst fantasy matchups at the team level, revealing the Rockets to be the most lenient team for overall 8-cat value, with the 76ers claiming the top spot in 9-cat leagues. If you missed that analysis, click here to check it out.
You can also follow me on Twitter @Knaus_RW.
The focus this week is more nuanced, looking at team-by-team matchups vs. every position (PG, SG, SF, PF and C). Take the Rockets as an example. They’re one of the best overall matchups, and they give up the most 9-cat value to opposing power forwards, but they are middle-of-the-pack against opposing SGs. That could be a deciding factor if you’re setting a DFS lineup or choosing between two similar players on a hectic Friday night, and it’s just one of dozens of similar matchup-based insights.
I could only find G/F/C splits on NBA.com so I’m using stats drawn from another great site, HoopsStats.com, which provides more specific data. The stats account for both starters and reserves. Let’s begin with team matchups vs. opposing point guards.
Editor’s Note: Sign up for FanDuel today and receive a FREE ENTRY into a one-day fantasy basketball league for real money. Finish anywhere in the top-half to win cash. Enter now.
With Jrue Holiday on a strict minute-limit this season, the Pelicans have emerged as the best team to target with opposing PGs. Emmanuel Mudiay and the Nuggets aren’t far behind, but after those teams there’s a big drop-off to a group that includes the Rockets, Kings, Hawks, Magic and Lakers. Bear in mind that this is based on year-to-date statistics, so Houston’s PG defense is likely to tighten up with Patrick Beverley healthy and starting.
The inclusion of z-scores for every category allows you to parse this data at an even deeper level. For instance, the Grizzlies are a decent PG matchup overall but they allow the second-fewest assists to opposing PGs, while allowing the most 3-pointers. That would be a fine matchup for someone like Isaiah Canaan, who is averaging more 3-pointers (2.5) than assists (2.0), but it spells trouble for a guy like Ricky Rubio.
The Spurs have a cumulative z-score of -9.40 against shooting guards (9-cat), which makes them the worst matchup of any team vs. any position. If you deploy a SG against Danny Green, Kawhi Leonard and company, chances are that player will be utterly shut down. Memphis also stands out with a -2.60 in the turnover category, as SGs are averaging a whopping 4.2 miscues vs. Tony Allen and the Grizzlies this year. That -2.60 is the strongest negative z-score in any of these tables.
The examples I’ve given highlight a few ways in which this data can be considered, but how it is used is entirely dependent upon individual fantasy owners. From here on I will let the numbers speak for themselves — they have a lot to say.
A few observations…
- The Nets don’t fare well vs. swingmen — they’re the most lenient team vs. SFs and are third-most-lenient vs. SGs.
- The 76ers are a terrific matchup for every position except SG, where they’ve given up the 26th-most 9-cat value.
- I mentioned in the intro that Houston is the best team to target with opposing PFs, but may have under-sold the fact — their cumulative z-score of 11.19 is the highest number by a wide margin, with the second-most lenient matchup being the Pelicans vs. PGs (9.13). It will be interesting to see how the Rockets’ PF matchup changes with Clint Capela seemingly locked into the starting lineup alongside Dwight Howard.
- As was seen last week, Utah is a terrible matchup. It doesn’t matter much which position you’re looking at, though they’re particularly brutal vs. opposing big men (26th vs. PFs, 29th vs. Cs).
- The Trail Blazers aren’t a fearsome matchup but they have been very stingy vs. opposing small forwards this year. They’ve limited SFs to a league-low 1.5 threes per game, with only 15.7 points on 36.7% shooting (again, that includes both starters and reserves). It’s a credit to Al-Farouq Aminu.
I may follow up with a look at how each team fares vs. opposing starters and benches, to see which matchups do or don’t favor reserve players. I’m also open to suggestions for future Numbers Game columns — if you have any statistics or research topics that you’d like to see in this space, please send me a Direct Message on Twitter. Good luck this week.
This entry passed through the Full-Text RSS service – if this is your content and you’re reading it on someone else’s site, please read the FAQ at fivefilters.org/content-only/faq.php#publishers.
