Rudy Gobert’s MCL sprain could deal another major blow to Jazz’s playoff hopes
The insertion of Rudy Gobert into the starting lineup following the departure of Enes Kanter at last season’s trade deadline keyed the transformation of the Utah Jazz into both one of the league’s top defensive squads and a team with legitimate aspirations of returning to the playoffs after three straight lottery finishes. A Jazz team currently sitting at .500 and in seventh place in the Western Conference will now have to hold down the fort without their 7-foot-1 interior linchpin, as Utah announced Wednesday evening that they’ll be without the “Stifle Tower” for an as-yet-undetermined timeframe:
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After sustaining a left knee injury during today’s practice at Zions Bank Basketball Center, Gobert underwent magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) this afternoon at University of Utah Health Care’s Orthopaedic Center. Following the examination, Jazz physicians Dr. Travis Maak and Dr. David Petron determined that Gobert suffered a Grade II sprain of the medial collateral ligament (MCL) in his left knee.
No surgery is required and Gobert will be out indefinitely. Further updates will be provided when appropriate.
While the Jazz did not offer a timetable for Gobert’s return, a review of recent results for several other players who sustained MCL sprains suggests Utah could be without its starting center for a sizable chunk of time, according to Andy Larsen of KSL.com:
Other NBA players have suffered Grade II MCL sprains in recent years, including players of Gobert’s size, and so we can get an idea of the length of time Gobert will be out of action.
• Memphis Grizzlies Center Marc Gasol had a Grade II MCL sprain in November 2013. He ended up missing 23 games for the Grizzlies.
• Greg Stiemsma of the New Orleans Pelicans also suffered a Grade II MCL sprain in November 2013, and he missed 20 games.
• Matthew Dellavedova had a Grade II MCL sprain last season, during the first month of the Cleveland Cavaliers’ season. He missed 15 games.
• Carl Landry also had a Grade II MCL sprain and missed 23 games.
From the pattern, you can see that it looks likely that Gobert will be out approximately 4-7 weeks and miss about 15-25 games for the Utah Jazz. Every injury situation is different, of course, but this seems to be the likely outcome for this well-documented type of injury.
The more expansive injury database kept by Jeff Stotts of In Street Clothes suggests the most common scenario falls on the longer side of that span:
The InStreetClothes.com [database] has 11 in-season examples of Grade II MCL sprains, including Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph, and Nene. The average number of games missed for these players sits at 22 games or roughly six weeks.
If Gobert is sidelined for the average number of game he would be out until January 14. Over that stretch, Utah plays 13 homes game and nine road games. The road games are particularly tough including a back-to-back road matchup against the Thunder and Spurs next week and a trip to face the Warriors in Oracle a few days later. Another road back-to-back awaits them in early January this time in San Antonio and Houston.
Losing your starting center for an extended period, especially one with such a rough road slate, is obviously never good. If Gobert’s shelving tends toward the short side of that prospective timetable, though, it’s possible Utah could weather the storm by sliding power forward Derrick Favors — quietly turning in All-Star caliber work at power forward, averaging 16.7 points, 8.6 rebounds, 2.0 steals, 1.6 assists and 1.3 blocks per game — to the five spot and looking to cobble together enough complementary frontcourt minutes with some the combination of veteran Trevor Booker, backup center Jeff Withey, and rookies Trey Lyles and Tibor Pleiss, who was recently sent down to the D-League’s Idaho Stampede (and who might not be coming back right away just because Gobert’s gone).
“It’s a big blow to us for sure, but we have to step up,” Favors told The Salt Lake Tribune on Thursday. “We have to find a way to play well without him and hold it down until Rudy returns.”
It might not be an ideal solution; Utah’s been outscored by 1.8 points per 100 possessions in 176 minutes with Favors playing and Gobert sitting this season, according to NBAwowy.com, compared to a +5.5-per-100 mark in 289 minutes with both of them out there, and lineups with Favors as the nominal center (no Gobert, no Withey, no Pleiss) are a combined -17 in 150 minutes this season, according to NBA.com’s lineup data. But then, there aren’t any ideal solutions for replacing a player like Gobert — that’s what makes him special.
The Jazz are outscoring opponents by 4.8 points per 100 possessions with Gobert in the middle this season, and getting outscored by 4.9 points-per-100 when he sits, according to NBA.com’s stat tool. He’s fourth in the NBA in blocks per game (2.6) and sixth in rebounds per game (10.9). He continues to be the league’s top interior deterrent even when he doesn’t notch a rejection, holding opponents to an infinitesimal 35.7 percent at the rim when he’s in the neighborhood, according to SportVU player tracking data, and saving his club nearly 3.5 more points per game at the basket than the average NBA center, according to Nylon Calculus’ rim protection stats.
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Even if Gobert hasn’t been quite as good all around this year as he was in his sensational finish to last season — his shooting’s dipped a bit on non-dunks, and he’s logging fewer assists and more turnovers when he tries to make plays, whether from the high post or as a short-rolling outlet valve in the screen game — he’s still an integral piece of what Utah’s become and what the team’s still trying to build. For his part, Gobert’s expressing confidence that this is just a minor setback and that his teammates will band together to pick up his slack:
But while Snyder’s club has weathered the preseason loss of young tip-of-the-spear point guard Dante Exum with aplomb, if Gobert’s gone for a third of the season, carrying on with a playoff push — even in a West that hasn’t been as murderous as many expected — could prove awfully tough, as Layton Shumway notes at SLC Dunk:
With Dante Exum already out, we knew the Jazz would never reach their full potential this year. But a long-term Gobert injury could cost Utah the playoffs — especially if the team plays as badly without him as they did last month. I’m not sure a trade to bolster the frontcourt and keep the team more competitive makes sense, for the same reasons that a trade for an Exum replacement at point guard hasn’t happened. It’s heartbreaking, but there’s a real chance that 2015-16 will simply be a lost season now. But that might be better than mortgaging assets to try and maintain momentum this year.
Few expected the Jazz to take off quite as quickly and dramatically as they did after Gobert’s elevation last season. Utah fans must now hope that Snyder, Favors, Gordon Hayward, Alec Burks, Rodney Hood and the rest of the Jazz have another surprise in store, and can keep the club afloat until the French game-changer’s ready to get back on the floor.
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