Bowl projections, post-Week 13 edition

For our purposes, we assume that all the favorites win. This will not happen because it never happens like that, but it’s a more consistent system than attempting to predict multiple results. First, the semifinals:

Cotton Bowl (12/31): 2) Alabama vs. 3) Michigan State

Orange Bowl (12/31): 1) Clemson vs. 4) Oklahoma

Nothing changes here, with wins by the favorites combined with a Notre Dame loss making this your four teams as long as Clemson, Alabama and Michigan State win. If Iowa wins, it takes Sparty’s spot. If North Carolina and/or Florida win? I would guess Clemson could still hang around in the top four at 12-1, but the committee would look at 11-2 Stanford (should it defeat USC), 12-1 North Carolina or perhaps 11-1 Ohio State.

Peach (12/31): Florida State (at-large) vs. Houston (G5/at-large)

Fiesta (1/1): Iowa (at-large) vs. Notre Dame (at-large)

Rose (1/1): Stanford (Pac-12) vs. Ohio State (Big Ten)

Sugar (1/1): Ole Miss (SEC) vs. Baylor (Big XII)

Barring a Florida win in the SEC title game or Texas upsetting Baylor, the Rebels and the Bears are locked in as your Sugar Bowl, which should be a ridiculously fun game. Stanford heads to the Rose unless there is a lot of chaos in front of them, where they will play the highest ranked Big Ten team not in the playoff. I think the loser of Sparty/Iowa falls behind the Buckeyes, so sending Ohio State to Pasadena.

Your four at-larges are still very much in flux, and Temple would likely take Houston’s spot with an upset in the American title game. Florida State to the Peach seems to make the most sense and then from there it’s just about arranging the Irish, Sparty/Iowa loser and Houston/Temple winner. If USC, Florida or North Carolina win, they slide into these games. 

Things are extremely murky at the bottom of the bowl pool, but will clear up once the NCAA’s Football Oversight Committee decides how 5-7 teams will be placed. Will all 6-6 teams be given first priority, or will conference obligations be filled with 5-7 teams? No one knows!

An asterisk denotes a conference wasn’t able to fulfill its obligation and a floating at-large team slid into the spot. A plus sign means the team is 5-7 but with a high enough APR they could get into a bowl. A bolded team name connotes a team already accepted a bid.

New Orleans (12/19): Arkansas State (Sun Belt) vs. Louisiana Tech (C-USA)

New Mexico (12/19): Washington* (C-USA) vs. New Mexico (MWC)

Las Vegas (12/19): BYU (MWC/BYU) vs. USC (Pac-12)

Cure (12/19): UConn (American) vs. San Jose State* (Sun Belt)

Camelia (12/19): Toledo (MAC) vs. App State (Sun Belt)

Miami Beach (12/21): Temple (American) vs. Marshall (C-USA)

Potato (12/22): Northern Illinois (MAC) vs. Utah State (MWC)

Boca Raton (12/22): South Florida (American) vs. Ohio (MAC)

Poinsettia (12/23): Boise State (MWC) vs. Arizona State* (Army)

GoDaddy (12/23): Bowling Green (MAC) vs. Georgia Southern (Sun Belt)

Hawaii (12/24): Memphis (American) vs. San Diego State (MWC/BYU)

Bahamas (12/24): Middle Tennessee State (C-USA) vs. Western Michigan (MAC)

Sun (12/26): Louisville (ACC) vs. UCLA (Pac-12)

St. Petersburg (12/26): Akron*(ACC) vs. Western Kentucky (C-USA)

Pinstripe (12/26): Pittsburgh (ACC) vs. Indiana (Big Ten)

Independence (12/26): Virginia Tech (ACC) vs. Central Michigan* (SEC)

Heart of Dallas (12/26): Tulsa* (Big 12) vs. Rice+ (C-USA)

Foster Farms (12/26): Nebraska+ (Big Ten) vs. Washington State (Pac-12)

Quick Lane (12/28): Nevada* (ACC) vs. Minnesota+ (Big Ten)

Military (12/28): Duke (ACC) vs. Navy (American)

Texas (12/29): West Virginia (Big 12) vs. Texas A&M (SEC)

Russell Athletic (12/29): North Carolina (ACC) vs. Oklahoma State (Big 12)

Armed Forces (12/29): Illinois+ (Big Ten) vs. Air Force (MWC)

Arizona (12/29): Arizona* (C-USA) vs. Colorado State (MWC)

Music City (12/29): Penn State (ACC/Big Ten) vs. Tennessee (SEC)

Holiday (12/30): Wisconsin (Big Ten) vs. Utah (Pac-12)

Birmingham (12/30): Cincinnati (American) vs. Auburn (SEC)

Belk (12/30): NC State (ACC) vs. Arkansas (SEC)

Outback (1/1): Northwestern (Big Ten) vs. Florida (SEC)

Citrus (1/1): Michigan (Big Ten) vs. LSU (SEC)

TaxSlayer (1/2): Miami (FL) (ACC/Big Ten) vs. Georgia (SEC)

Liberty (1/2): Texas Tech (Big 12) vs. Mississippi State (SEC)

Cactus (1/2): Kansas State (Big 12) vs. California (Pac-12)

Alamo (1/2): TCU (Big 12) vs. Oregon (Pac-12)