The Worksheet: The Worksheet: Week 13

Week 13 is upon us and for many, this means the final week of your fantasy regular season. Hopefully you all are already in the playoffs, but if you’re not, we’re here to help. If you’ve been eliminated from the postseason already, the season doesn’t have to end for you as you can dabble into the Daily Fantasy waters if you’ve yet to try it out.  Here’s the disclaimer that I encourage that you use the game by game tables and data points in conjunction with your own information and thought process rather than searching out your own players in the individual player diagnosis and turning that section into a linear start/sit guide. With that out of the way, let’s hit all of the Week 13 games in a PPR fashion….

Green Bay vs. Detroit

• Through the first five weeks, Matthew Stafford‘s highest weekly scoring finish was QB16. Over his past six weeks, he’s been QB15 or higher in five weeks with four top-12 scoring weeks.
• Calvin Johnson has at least five receptions and 80 receiving yards in six consecutive games.
• After averaging a weekly finish of WR48 through seven games, Golden Tate has been the WR34, WR31, WR18 and WR21 over the past month.
• Theo Riddick is tied with Danny Woodhead out of all running backs for the most targets in red zone targets with 11.
• Since returning from injury two weeks ago, Eddie Lacy has 62.9 percent of the team rushing attempts, higher than his 2014 share (56.6 percent) for the season.
• Over those two games, James Starks still has every backfield touch in the red zone.
• No team passes more in the red zone than the Packers at 68.9 percent of the time.
• Per Pro Football Focus, Aaron Rodgers has a quarterback rating of 104.7 plus when targeting Randall Cobb, James Jones or Ty Montgomery and a 61.8 rating targeting Davante Adams.
• After averaging 3.0 offensive touchdowns per game in their six games prior to their bye, the Packers are averaging just 2.0 per game over their past five games.

Trust: Calvin Johnson (he’s been ultra-reliable even if the Thanksgiving Day moments have been more sporadic then we were spoiled with for so long)

Bust: Eddie Lacy (he still hasn’t been used near the goal line and Detroit has allowed just 167 rushing yards total over their past three games), James Jones (Darius Slay wiped him out in the last meeting), Davante Adams (had 21 targets in the last meeting and the Lions were content with every one of them. Have to believe Green Bay alters their approach in round two), Eric Ebron (had his highest target share of the season in the first meeting, but that yielded nothing useful in the results column)

Reasonable Return: Matthew Stafford (has quietly turned his season around from a fantasy perspective), Aaron Rodgers (Detroit has been lights out on defense since their bye outside of late production to Rodgers in their meeting three weeks ago. I’m playing Rodgers for his floor first in this one over any expected ceiling), Randall Cobb (has one top-30 scoring week over his past eight games, but the targets have still be here weekly to hold out hope as a WR3 floor play with upside), Golden Tate (it’s not shocking that an ancillary player like Tate has seen his viability rise along with Stafford improving), Richard Rodgers (you’re playing him for a touchdown and Detroit is giving them away to tight ends in the red zone on the season)

Houston vs. Buffalo

• Since Week 8, Houston has allowed just two offensive touchdowns on their opponents past 48 possessions.
• Opposing teams have run just 17 plays in the red zone against the Texans since Week 8, the fewest in the league.
• Over that span, Houston has allowed just one top-24 scoring receiver (Brandon Marshall).
• During that timeframe, Houston has trailed for only 22.2 percent of their snaps as opposed to 66.7 percent previously and is running 10.8 fewer plays per game.
• Over the same stretch, DeAndre Hopkins is averaging 34.7 fewer receiving yards per game than he did prior.
• Hopkins is still the only player with at least five receptions in every game this season.
• Houston has one rushing play over 20 yards on the season, the fewest in the league.
• Sammy Watkins is tied with Odell Beckham and Michael Crabtree for the league lead in touchdowns outside of the red zone with five.
• Since returning from injury in Week 6, LeSean McCoy is fourth in running back touches (128), third in total yards (700) and fourth in points per game (19.0).
• Since Karlos Williams returned in Week 9, McCoy’s percentage of the team carries has been 44.4%, 57.6%, 66.7% and 67.8%.

Trust: LeSean McCoy (Houston has ramped up their defense, but the touches and production from McCoy have been rock solid)

Bust: Alfred Blue (last week was set up perfectly for him to be useful and although this week isn’t overly daunting, I’m back to expecting more empty touches),Tyrod Taylor (bounced back last week in a rough matchup on paper, but this matchup may be even tougher given how Houston has been playing defense and Houston has mushed Andy Dalton and Drew Brees in two of the past three weeks), Charles Clay (hasn’t had a top-12 week since Week 6), Ryan Griffin (he’s had 18 percent or more of the team targets in two of three games, but we need to see more stability before jumping on)

Reasonable Return: DeAndre Hopkins (this is another game Houston could potentially have neutral game script often against, leaving Hopkins as more of a floor play with high upside based on Houston’s current offensive approach), Brian Hoyer (with Houston in more favorable spots, we’ve seen him as more of a game manager again instead of a volume inflated option),  Sammy Watkins (you’re just living with the volatility weekly if you have him at this point because they good has been really good)

Baltimore vs. Miami

• Jarvis Landry leads the league with 13 targets inside of the 10-yard line.
• Landry has a touch on 13.2 percent of his snaps, the second highest rate in the league behind Julio Jones (13.7 percent).
• Devante Parker played 82 percent of the snaps after Rishard Matthews went down, the second highest of all Dolphin receivers.
• Since rushing for 248 yards as a team in Week 7, the Dolphins has run for 302 yards total over their past five games.
• Lamar Miller has rushed for fewer than 50 yards in eight of his past ten games.
• Miller played the fewest amount of snaps (23) and had his lowest share (32 percent) of the season last week. Jay Ajayi led the Dolphins with 48 snaps and Damien Williams played 27.
• Miami has trailed by double digits in nine different games this season, most in the league.
• Only twice have the Ravens allowed the opposing team to rush for 100 yards, the fewest in the league.
• Javorius Allen played 61 percent of the team snaps (Justin Forsett was at 67 percent for the season prior to injury) and handled 52.2 percent of the team carries (Forsett was at 66.7 percent).
• In games without Steve Smith, Kamar Aiken has finished as the WR32, WR20, WR13 and WR16 with 25.9 percent of the team targets.
• Aiken also leads the team in red zone targets over that span with 23.8 percent (five of 21).

Trust: Jarvis Landry (has 12 or more targets in three of his past four and has been a top-13 scorer in four of his past six)

Bust: Lamar Miller (I don’t know what kind of usage we’ll see with another domino falling among the staff, but Miami projects to be pass heavy this week and I don’t want to count on a receiving floor), Crockett Gillmore (his targets last week were more in line for his seasonal numbers, so it’s hard to blame the low output just on the quarterback change)

Reasonable Return: Ryan Tannehill (I would love to trust him this week as a must play in a great matchup, but he’s shown that even with immense volume, his ceiling has largely been a low QB1), Kamar Aiken (at this point, he’s everything people want out of Randall Cobb), Javorius Allen (the usage wasn’t quite as high last week as we were hoping while the efficiency was still lackluster in a great matchup, but there’s a floor to play for here in another favorable matchup), Devante Parker (with Rishard Matthews out, he’s going to be thrown into the fire finally in a solid matchup even if there’s volatility that comes along with it)

Cincinnati vs. Cleveland

• Since Week 7, the Browns average just 18.6 rushing attempts and 53.6 yards rushing per game, both the fewest in the league.
• Travis Benjamin averages 16.9 points per game against defenses in the bottom half of wide receiver points allowed (five games) with four top-24 scoring weeks. In games against defenses in the top half of wide receiver scoring (the Bengals rank 12th), he averages 13.1 points with just two top-24 scoring weeks.
• Gary Barndige is averaging 68.9 receiving yards per game, the most by a Browns tight end since Kellen Winslow (69.1) in 2007.
• The Bengals allow 6.2 receptions per game to opposing tight ends, the second most in the league, but have allowed just one touchdown, the fewest in the league.
• A.J. Green has 21 receptions for 183 yards combined over his past five games against Cleveland with a high of 53 yards receiving.
• Andy Dalton has 19 red zone passing touchdowns (third most in the league behind Tom Brady and Carson Palmer). His career high for red zone touchdowns is 23 set in 2013.
• Cleveland has allowed six top-10 scoring quarterbacks, tied for the most in the league.
• Last week was the first time Jeremy Hill averaged over 4.4 yards per carry and the first time he’s reach 100 yards from scrimmage since Week 16 of last season.
• Hill played 47.5 percent of the team snaps, his highest since Week 8, but was still under 50 percent of the team total for the fourth time in five weeks.

Trust: Tyler Eifert (monitor his progress through the week as he’s a question mark, but Cleveland has shown now issues allowing tight ends to damage near the paint, which is his specialty)

Bust: Travis Benjamin, Johnny Manziel/Austin Davis (Manziel served his punishment but Davis is rumored to start, either way, we’re not looking to them this week), Gary Barnidge (I have more faith in Davis helping him than Manziel as his only good moment with Manziel was against a paper thin Steeler defense), Isaiah Crowell/Duke Johnson (there’s nothing to see here with this offensive line playing the way it is and the looming negative game script)

Reasonable Return: Andy Dalton (like the first meeting, his yardage is likely going to be capped by game script, making him touchdown dependent this week), A.J. Green (the matchup is sound, but Green has been more of a WR2 upside play than a player we’re counting on to do heavy lifting), Jeremy Hill (I’d be fine flexing him this week, but I’m going in feet first as he’s squandered a lot of appealing game scripts and matchups to date), Giovani Bernard (even when Hill has been his best, he’s still held his floor), Marvin Jones (has sunken down into fill in territory again, but is flex worthy this week)

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