NFL Picks Week 13: Bengals, Bears win easily; Saints fall to Panthers – NOLA.com
The final push. With college football winding down and the regular season over, there soon will be nothing to be excited about but the NFL playoff race.
And for those locally, it’s a little less exciting without the Saints in the running.
In picking games, this is when it becomes a little easier. The teams who have been playing well the past few weeks usually continue that trend, while those sliding in the wrong direction have a tough time turning it around. That’s not to say upsets don’t happen, but finding them usually is a bit easier.
The Patriots are banged up and heading in the wrong direction. The Packers’ loss at home to the Bears was no fluke. The Texans very well could end up winning the AFC South after a 1-5 start. At home, the Redskins are the best team in the NFC East; on the road they might be worse than the Cowboys and Eagles. (Although the Eagles are pretty bad.)
What I am saying is now – more than ever – pay attention to trends. They don’t generally change much in December.
Good luck!
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Here we go with Week 13 (home team in bold):
16 points: CINCINNATI over CLEVELAND, Sunday at noon
If there is a team in more disarray than the Browns, I’d like to know which one that might be. (No, not even the Saints.) They don’t know who their quarterback will be, and they don’t even know who they WANT their quarterback to be. Should be easy for the Bengals, although regular readers know I just can’t (won’t) give more than a touchdown in a division road game. Against the spread: Browns plus-7.5.
Last week: Green Bay over Chicago (L). 16-point record: 2-2. ATS, Packers -9.5 (L)
15 points: CHICAGO over SAN FRANCISCO, Sunday at noon
OK, Jay Cutler, I believe. Of course, what I really mean is you’re playing a really bad team in disarray you should be able to beat by 20. But we both know you won’t. And I have know idea why I am talking to Jay Cutler when I know he’s not reading this or cares what I think. Against the spread: Bears minus-6.5.
Last week: Arizona over San Francisco (W). 15-point record: 3-2. ATS, 49ers +11.5 (W)
14 points: NEW ENGLAND over PHILADELPHIA, Sunday at 3:25 p.m.
Had a weird feeling about that Denver game, which is why I told you to hedge your bet and take the points. Besides the fact Tom Brady doesn’t have anyone to throw to, I still think he passes for three scores and 300 yards. Oh, and the Patriots are going to be really ticked off and the Eagles stink. Against the spread: Patriots minus-9.5.
Last week: Cincinnati over St. Louis (W). 14-point record: 10-1. ATS, Bengals -9.5 (W)
13 points: WASHINGTON over DALLAS, Monday at 7:30 p.m.
As this team continues to gain confidence, eventually they’ll figure out how to win on the road. Luckily for them, the Redskins get another week at home against a bad team limping to the finish line before ending the regular season with three of four away from FedEx Field. Against the spread: Redskins minus-3.5.
Last week: Carolina over Dallas (W). 13-point record: 9-3. ATS, Panthers -1.5 (W)
12 points: ARIZONA over ST. LOUIS, Sunday at noon
Really quick, the Rams have turned into a bad football team. Still, something smells fishy with this one, and not just because my old rule of taking the division dog at home. Call it a gut felling – I think the Cardinals find a way to win, but it won’t be easy and it won’t be until late. Against the spread: Rams plus-5.5.
Last week: Jacksonville over San Diego (L). 12-point record: 8-4. ATS, Jaguars -3.5 (L)
11 points: GREEN BAY over DETROIT, Thursday at 7:25 p.m.
All that stuff about trends I talked about earlier – well, I still believe in it. But, c’mon, how in the heck can you really think the Lions can beat a now-desperate Green Bay team? Yeah, that’s usually how you mess up picks, but I’m still not betting against Aaron Rodgers in a huge division game. Against the spread: Packers minus-3.5.
Last week: Kansas City over Buffalo (W). 11-point record: 7-5. ATS, Chiefs -3.5 (W)
10 points: CAROLINA over NEW ORLEANS, Sunday at 3:25 p.m.
Beware: this is the kind of game the Saints pull an upset. However, there’s no way in all that is holy I can pick against the last undefeated squad in the NFL, at least not with a team that has played as bad as black and gold has. If the Saints don’t at least show up in this one, it’ll tell me they’ve phoned it in and won’t win another game this year. Against the spread: Saints plus-7.5.
Last week: Indianapolis over Tampa Bay (W). 10-point record: 9-3. ATS, Bucs +3.5 (L)
9 points: HOUSTON over BUFFALO, Sunday at noon
Back to the trends thing. Houston is playing like a team with a chance to make a run. Even at 6-5 without Arian Foster and a better-than-average quarterback, DeAndre Hopkins is a real weapon, and that defensive line is beast. If I were New England or Cincinnati, I’d be hoping the Texans land on the other side of the playoff bracket. Against the spread: Texans plus-2.5.
Last week: New Orleans over Houston (L). 9-point record: 5-7. ATS, Saints +2.5 (L)
8 points: PITTSBURGH over INDIANAPOLIS, Sunday at 7:30 p.m.
Don’t get me wrong, I think Ben Roethlisberger is one of the best quarterbacks to play the game over the past decade, but the Steelers don’t seem to lose much with Landry Jones in there. Not a good matchup for a mediocre Colts team on the road. Against the spread: Steelers minus-6.5.
Last week: Seattle over Pittsburgh (W). 8-point record: 6-6. ATS, Seahawks -4.5 (W)
7 points: JACKSONVILLE over TENNESSEE, Sunday at noon
Don’t be fooled by last week’s slip up – the Jaguars are a team on the rise. They’re just not used to being a favorite. So I guess the lines-makers decided to do them a favor, because this line makes no sense. Can’t believe this game would be even on a neutral site. One of my top bets of the week. Against the spread: Jaguars plus-2.5.
Last week: New England over Denver (L). 7-point record: 10-2. ATS, Broncos +5.5 (W)
6 points: DENVER over SAN DIEGO, Sunday at 3:05 p.m.
Could it be the Broncos are better without Peyton Manning? When you defeat an undefeated New England team – no matter how, where or when – it means you’re pretty doggone good. And I don’t think any of us are fooled by Philip Rivers – the Chargers are pretty doggone bad. Against the spread: Chargers plus-4.5.
Last week: Oakland over Tennessee (W). 6-point record: 9-3. ATS, Raiders -1.5 (W)
5 points: NY GIANTS over NY JETS, Sunday at noon
All of a sudden, the Giants are getting points in a game that was even just a few days ago. Losing at Washington in a division game shouldn’t subtract from their power points, while the Jets beating up on Miami is nothing special. Seems like a gift to me. Against the spread: Giants plus-2.5.
Last week: Detroit over Philadelphia (W). 5-point record: 8-4. ATS, Lions, even (W)
4 points: TAMPA BAY over ATLANTA, Sunday at noon
If someone would have told me I’d make this pick four or five weeks ago, I would have told them to go check themselves into the loony bin. But the Bucs are playing solid football, and the Falcons can’t seem to find what worked so well in the first half of the season. Against the spread: Bucs minus-1.5.
Last week: Cleveland over Baltimore (L). 4-point record: 4-8. ATS, Browns -2.5 (L)
3 points: KANSAS CITY over OAKLAND, Sunday at 3:05 p.m.
Like the Texans, Kansas City has turned a horrendous start into something special – and also like Houston, they’ve done it without their star running back. Even with Jamaal Charles out for the season, the Chiefs keep finding ways to win and win convincingly. On the other end, the Raiders obviously are still a year away. Against the spread: Chiefs minus-2.5.
Last week: Miami over NY Jets (L). 3-point record: 2-10. ATS, Dolphins +4.5 (L)
2 points: MIAMI over BALTIMORE, Sunday at noon
An emotional Monday night win proves the Ravens don’t need their multi-million-dollar quarterback or starting running back to score points. Also, we know any John Harbaugh-coached team will be competitive. That being said, I expect Ryan Tannehill to have a nice game and the Dolphins to win a tight one. Against the spread: Ravens plus-5.5.
Last week: Minnesota over Atlanta (W). 2-point record: 6-6. ATS, Vikings +2.5 (W)
1 point: MINNESOTA over SEATTLE, Sunday at noon
Here’s a perfect example of a team not getting the respect it deserves. Minnesota is on top of the NFC North, and other than a one-game collapse against Green Bay a couple of weeks ago, this team has been solid since early October. Seems like an easy choice to me, but there’s a reason I have this as my 1-point special. Against the spread: Vikings, even.
Last week: Washington over NY Giants (W). 1-point record: 6-6. ATS, Redskins -1.5 (W)
* Spreads are gathered from Odds Shark on Monday of each week.
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Last week STRAIGHT UP: 10-6. Season: 103-73 (.585).
Last week AGAINST THE SPREAD: 10-6. Season: 82-94 (.466).
POINT TOTALS
Week 12: 85/190 possible points. Weekly rank: T51 out of 112. Overall: 893/1,439. Overall rank: 15 of 256.
Week 12 READERS winner: Katie Foret (won tiebreaker), 104/190.
Overall READERS leader: Robert Hobbs, 947/1,439.
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PREVIOUS COLUMNS (click on week to view)
Week 12: 10-6 straight up, 10-6 ATS
Week 11: 9-5 straight up, 7-7 ATS
Week 10: 3-10 straight up, 5-9 ATS
Week 9: 7-6 straight up, 7-6 ATS
Week 8: 8-6 straight up, 6-8 ATS
Week 7: 10-4 straight up, 4-10 ATS
Week 6: 9-5 straight up, 8-6 ATS
Week 5: 11-3 straight up, 5-9 ATS
Week 4: 8-7 straight up, 6-9 ATS
Week 3: 13-3 straight up, 10-6 ATS
Week 2: 7-9 straight up, 7-9 ATS
Week 1: 8-8 straight up, 7-9 ATS
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Jim Derry can be reached at [email protected] or 504.232.9944. Follow him on Twitter at www.twitter.com/JimDerryJr.
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