NFL picks vs. the spread, Week 13: Panthers too potent for underdog Saints – NOLA.com

Before the Carolina Panthers and New Orleans Saints even kickoff on Sunday at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, a milestone of sorts will be established.

The Panthers were installed as 7-point favorites against the Saints in the 3:25 p.m. game between the NFC South rivals.

Barring an unprecedented movement in the line by Sunday, that will make the Saints the largest home underdogs in the Sean Payton-Drew Brees era. In fact, no team was this heavily favored to beat the Saints in the Superdome in the Jim Haslett era from 2000-2005.

According to The Gold Sheet, you have to go back to the forlorn Mike Ditka era to find a game in which the Saints were this big a home underdog. The Dallas Cowboys were 8.5-point favorites over the Saints on Dec. 24, 1999.

The good news: The Saints won that game 31-24 behind quarterback Jake Delhomme, who was making the first start of his NFL career.

Previously, the largest anyone had been favored against the Saints in the Payton-Brees era was 3.5 points. Both times the Atlanta Falcons were the opponent, and both times the Saints won the game outright. In the famous 2006 “Domecoming” game, the Saints beat the Falcons 23-3. Earlier this season, the Saints whipped Atlanta 31-21 to hand the Falcons their first loss of the season.

Could the Saints pull off the upset again? With the way the Panthers are playing, I wouldn’t bet on it. Carolina is the league’s lone unbeaten team and seems to be gaining momentum as the season progresses. The Panthers have won their past three games by an average of 21.3 points.

Stranger things have happened in the Superdome over the years. But this would certainly qualify as the biggest upset of Payton-Brees era. The Vegas line proves it.

A brutal 3-13 week against the spread last week. I’m having a worse year than Johnny Manziel. Time to rally. Here are this week’s picks:

Panthers (-7) at Saints: A large percentage of my 66-86-10 record this season is due to picking against the Panthers. I’ve learned my lesson. Panthers win. Saints cover. Panthers 27, Saints 23

Packers (-3) at Lions: This game is testament to the length and tumultuousness of the NFL season. A month ago the Packers were 6-1 and considered one of the favorites to represent the NFC in Super Bowl L. The Lions, meanwhile, were 1-7 and in such disarray Coach Jim Caldwell fired offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi. The Packers enter Thursday’s game having lost four of five games and the Lions are one of the hottest teams in the NFC, having won three straight. With that in mind, I’m taking the Packers. Packers 26, Lions 21

49ers at Bears (-7): New GM Ryan Pace and head coach John Fox deserve a lot of credit for turning around the Bears season after 0-3 and 2-5 starts. This will be a defensive battle so it’s hard to lay a touchdown. Bears 19, 49ers 14

Bengals (-9) at Browns: The Battle of Ohio has never been so non-competitive. Bengals 30, Browns 20

Jaguars at Titans (-2.5): There was a time when you couldn’t have paid folks to watch these two teams play. But Blake Bortles and Marcus Mariota make it an intriguing battle of future star quarterbacks. I like the Jags, assuming Bortles has reacquainted himself with the line of scrimmage. Jaguars 30, Titans 28

Texans at Bills (-3): Vegas obviously isn’t impressed by the Texans’ four-game winning streak. I’ve been impressed by Tyrod Taylor’s development at quarterback but he faces a Texans defense that has allowed just two touchdowns in the past 18 quarters. Texans 20, Bills 15

Seahawks at Vikings (E): Don’t look now but the Legion of Boom is starting to get its act together. Seattle has won four of its past five but faces a stern test against the upstart Vikings, who have won six of their past seven. Adrian Peterson has six 100-yard rushing games this season. The Seahawks’ fourth-ranked defense hasn’t allowed a 100-yard rusher this season. Something has to give. I say it’s Minnesota. Seahawks 23, Vikings 21

Cardinals (-6) at Rams: The Cardinals used to play in St. Louis until migrating to warmer climes in Arizona. Now it looks like the Rams might follow their lead and bolt for Los Angels. The specter of relocation has hung over the club all season, along with one of the worst quarterback situations in the league. Cardinals 30, Rams 23

Falcons at Buccaneers (-2): The wheels have fallen off Coach Dan Quinn’s first season in Atlanta. His Falcons look a lot like Mike Smith’s editions, except quarterback Matt Ryan actually seems to be regressing under center. Not a good sign. Buccaneers 31, Falcons 20

Jets (-2) at Giants: Who knows which of the Big Apple’s schizophrenic franchises shows up for the Battle of New York. The only guarantee is the loser will be roasted in the local tabloids. Giants 23, Jets 21

Broncos (-4.5) at Chargers: The Brock Osweiler era has begun. The Broncos’ new starting quarterback established himself as a bona fide Brock Star after leading the Broncos past the Patriots on Sunday night. It’ll take a major stumble by Osweiler to get Peyton Manning back in the lineup. This just might be it. Chargers 24, Broncos 20

Chiefs (-3) at Raiders: All good things must come to an end, even the Chiefs’ five-game winning streak. Cool to see this great old rivalry relevant again. Raiders 27, Chiefs 23

Eagles at Patriots (-9.5): It took less than two seasons for Chip Kelly to feel the heat in Philly. Now he catches the Patriots coming off their first loss of the season. Can you spell U-G-L-Y? Patriots 35, Eagles 22

Cowboys at Redskins (-4.5): This is all you need to know about this NFC (L)East matchup: Washington is 5-1 at FedEx Field this season. Redskins 28, Cowboys 20

Week 12 overall record: 7-9

Week 12 record vs. spread: 3-13

Overall record: 89-73

Overall record vs. spread: 66-86-10 

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