The Line: Houston (-6.5)

The first American Athletic Conference Championship Game will most likely serve as a play-in game for the New Year’s Six as one-loss Houston squares off with two-loss Temple. 

The matchup to watch in this one will be Houston’s high-powered “smashmouth spread” offense, led by quarterback Greg Ward Jr., against a Temple defense that ranks 18th nationally in yards allowed per game. While Houston slipped up two weeks ago against UConn, Temple has flattened its last two opponents by holding them to a combined 15 points and around three yards per play.

The Owls have also started to click toward the end of the season on the offensive side of the ball with a balanced attack. Houston hasn’t had an easy time on defense in recent weeks, allowing big yardage to Cincinnati, Memphis and Navy.

According to Odds Shark, Temple has covered in six of its last seven games, while Houston is 0-3 against the spread this season after a win. I expect this one to be a close thriller between two high-quality Group of Five opponents. I’m taking Temple and the points in this one.

The Pick: Temple (+6.5)

The Line: Baylor (-20.5)

Both Baylor and Texas will wrap up their seasons this Saturday after disappointing losses on Thanksgiving week. Baylor dropped a double-overtime game against TCU that eliminated it from Big 12 title contention, while Texas lost a shootout to Texas Tech.

The Bears offense should get back on track this Saturday against a Texas defense that allowed 6.02 yards per play against West Virginia and 7.39 yards per play against Texas Tech. Unless Baylor has to play in another monsoon, third-string quarterback Chris Johnson should be able to move the ball effectively through the air and on the ground in Waco.

The Texas offense has picked up the pace in the back half of the season, but it hasn’t been too consistent—remember the shutout loss at Iowa State? It’s easy to look better against Kansas and Texas Tech, which are two of the three worst defenses in college football.

Texas hasn’t covered the spread in its last five meetings with Baylor, and now that the Longhorns officially can’t get a bowl bid with a 5-7 record, the Bears should make that 6-0 with a classic drubbing.

The Pick: Baylor (-20.5)

The Line: Alabama (-17)

Both Alabama and Florida will compete for the SEC Championship this weekend, but these two schools are going in the opposite direction at the moment. The Crimson Tide are going for a College Football Playoff berth, while Florida is trying to rebound from a season-ending slump.

The Florida offense has been tough to watch since routing Georgia in Jacksonville, putting up 51 points against the not-so-murderous row of Vanderbilt, South Carolina and Vanderbilt. Last weekend, a safety on defense gave the Gators their only points of the game against Florida State, which held Florida to 262 yards on 79 plays.

Alabama got more yards than that last week just from Derrick Henry, the hard-running Heisman front-runner with an SEC-record touchdown streak. The Gators defense will undoubtedly be one of the tougher matchups the Crimson Tide have had to face all season, but the Tide have scored at least 27 points in all but one game this season.

After its showing last week against Florida State, I have a hard time believing Florida’s offense will be able to keep up with Alabama. The Tide are 4-0 against the spread in their last four matchups against Florida and 4-0 ATS in their last four games this season. Alabama covers in a big win.

The Pick: Alabama (-17)

The Line: Stanford (-4.5)

Stanford kept its slim College Football Playoff hopes alive last Saturday with a close win over Notre Dame, while USC ended UCLA’s winning streak in its crosstown rivalry series. Now the two sides will meet in the Pac-12 title game more than two months after the Cardinal beat the Trojans 41-31 in Los Angeles.

USC has been on a good roll since the appointment of Clay Helton as the team’s interim head coach, and now the player favorite has the job on a permanent basis.

That should energize a Trojans team that is moving the ball well on the ground in recent weeks, especially against a physical team such as Stanford.

The Cardinal have had a few close calls during the last several weeks, edging Washington State and Notre Dame in the last minute and falling to Oregon. Stanford’s offense has been in tremendous form since a season-opening loss to Northwestern, and senior quarterback Kevin Hogan is coming off one of his best performances. 

According to Odds Shark, the betting underdog in this series is unbeaten against the spread and straight up in the last four meetings. Without completely falling into the adage of “it’s hard to beat one team twice in a season,” I’ll say a fired-up USC team takes Stanford down to the wire again and covers.

The Pick: USC (+4.5)

The Line: Michigan State (-3.5)

The unofficial playoff play-in game between Iowa and Michigan State looks like it will be the game of the weekend, and it also appears to be borderline untouchable from a point-spread standpoint.

Iowa doesn’t have that signature win everyone looks for this season, but the Hawkeyes are still undefeated and do a great job of grinding out victories. Their balanced attack on offense will serve them well against a Michigan State defense that is hitting an incredible stride right now.

Michigan State’s key to this game will be getting a healthy Connor Cook to attack Iowa’s leaky secondary without being too careless—cornerback Desmond King is a game-changing ball hawk. As Joe Rexrode of the Detroit Free Press noted, Cook had a breakout performance two seasons ago against the Hawkeyes, and now he’s back on the big stage at the Big Ten title game.

As much as I don’t want to pick against an undefeated team, Michigan State is red-hot right now and has more favorable matchups heading into this one. I’ll pick the Spartans to ride Cook’s arm and a stifling defense to a solid victory in Indianapolis.

The Pick: Michigan State (-3.5)

The Line: Clemson (-5)

Clemson has had some close calls the last few weeks, but the Tigers are headed to the ACC Championship Game with an undefeated record and a shot at locking down the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff. But they’ll have to step their game up, as North Carolina has won 11 straight with a ferocious big-play offense.

North Carolina has covered eight times in its 11-game winning streak, with several of those coming in blowout victories. Behind quarterback Marquise Williams, the Heels have the nation’s No. 2 offense in yards per play—trailing Baylor by just 0.01 yard. The UNC defense hasn’t been as stout as it was in the first half of the season, but coordinator Gene Chizik still has it leaps and bounds ahead of where it was last year, when it allowed 436 passing yards and 50 points to Clemson.

The Tigers have been excellent on offense recently, outgaining each of their last eight opponents by more than 100 yards. Quarterback Deshaun Watson will be one to watch on the ground in addition to his aerial attack, as the Tigers put up 236 rushing yards and four scores against South Carolina last week.

Clemson has allowed less than stellar opponents to hang around in the last few weeks, but I expect Dabo Swinney to have his team razor-sharp for a game against a Top 10 opponent. The Tigers knock off the Tar Heels and cover the five-point spread.

The Pick: Clemson (-5)

Top 25 rankings refer to the Associated Press poll. All spreads via Odds Shark. All historical spread info via TeamRankings.com. All betting percentages (which side has seen more action) via Sports Insights. All advanced stats via Football Study Hall or Football Outsiders. 

Justin Ferguson is a college football writer at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JFergusonBR.