College Football Picks Week 14: Vegas Odds and Predictions for Top 25 Games – Bleacher Report
Conference championship weekend is upon us, with a strong slate of games with playoff implications.
Three conference championship games (SEC, Big Ten, ACC) will have a direct impact on who advances to the College Football Playoff, while the Pac-12 and AAC will influence the selection of the other New Year’s Six bowl games.
There’s a clear favorite in each matchup with playoff implications, but November and December weekends in the college football world rarely go as planned. Who will pull the shocking upset this year?
| Time (ET) | Matchup (Odds) | TV | ATS Pick |
| Saturday, Dec. 5 | |||
| 12 p.m. | No. 20 Temple at No. 17 Houston (-5) | ABC | HOU |
| 12 p.m. | Texas at No. 12 Baylor (-20.5) | ESPN | BAY |
| 4 p.m. | No. 18 Florida vs. No. 2 Alabama (-17) (in Atlanta) | CBS | BAMA |
| 7:45 p.m. | No. 7 Stanford (-4) vs. No. 24 USC (in Santa Clara) | ESPN | USC |
| 8 p.m. | No. 5 Michigan State (-4) vs. No. 4 Iowa (in Indianapolis) | FOX | MSU |
| 8 p.m. | No. 8 North Carolina vs. No. 1 Clemson (-6.5) (in Charlotte) | ABC | CLEM |
Spreads from OddsShark.com
Notable Matchups
AAC Championship Game: Temple at Houston
Juan DeLeon/Associated Press
While this matchup doesn’t have direct implications on the College Football Playoff, it will effectively serve as a play-in game for a New Year’s Six bowl.
The highest-ranked team among the Group of Five conferences earns an automatic invitation to one of the New Year’s Six bowl games, and that team is likely to the winner of this game.
Toledo had been in the mix to represent the MAC, but an upset loss to Western Michigan on Friday knocked the Rockets out of contention. With 9-3 Bowling Green playing 8-4 Northern Illinois in the MAC title game, the highest-ranked Group of Five team will almost certainly be the ACC champ.
Prediction: Houston 35, Temple 28
SEC Championship Game: Alabama vs. Florida
Butch Dill/Associated Press
As competitive as the SEC usually us, the title game is traditionally a disappointment, and the 2015 version, at least on paper, appears to be no different.
Dating back to 2008, only one SEC Championship Game has been decided by fewer than 10 points, and Alabama appears poised to route Florida once again.
Despite showing much improvement under new head coach Jim McElwain, Florida is limping into the title game following a blowout loss to rival Florida State and a few close calls against lowly Florida Atlantic and Vanderbilt.
The game could also serve as the anointing of Alabama running back Derrick Henry as this year’s Heisman Trophy winner.
With over 1,700 yards and four 200-yard games under his belt already, Henry is the heavy favorite and should run away with the award so long as he isn’t shut down by the Florida defense in a shocking upset.
Prediction: Alabama 35, Florida 10
Pac-12 Championship Game: USC vs. Stanford
Jae C. Hong/Associated Press
With a victory, Stanford remains alive in the playoff conversation, but the Cardinal would need some help.
Stanford fans will be cheering for North Carolina and/or Florida to pull upsets Saturday to potentially clear a spot in the top four for a two-loss Pac-12 champ.
Before scoreboard watching, however, Stanford needs to take care of USC. The Trojans played Stanford tough earlier this season, holding a 28-24 lead early in the third quarter before eventually falling 41-31.
The Trojans are playing their best football of the season as they enter this game, having won five of their last six games, including victories over Utah and UCLA.
Senior quarterback Cody Kessler has thrown 10 touchdowns against just one interception in that stretch and could bring a memorable end to his USC career with a victory on Saturday night.
Prediction: USC 35, Stanford 31
Big Ten Championship Game: Michigan State vs. Iowa
Nati Harnik/Associated Press
The Spartans are making their third appearance in the five years of Big Ten title game, while Iowa is seeking its first outright conference title since 1985.
Considering the respect the CFP committee has given the Big Ten both this year and last, the winner of this game should be considered a lock to advance to the playoff, even if the team is outside the top four in this week’s rankings.
Iowa relies heavily on the running game, making it a perfect matchup for Michigan State’s staunch run defense.
The Spartans are just two weeks removed from holding Ohio State’s Ezekiel Elliott to just 33 yards on the ground, and they fared well against Oregon’s Royce Freeman in an early September matchup.
Michigan State has seen and stopped more talented rushing attacks than the Hawkeyes, but the same cannot be said in reverse.
Prediction: Michigan State 27, Iowa 17
ACC Championship Game: Clemson vs. North Carolina
Richard Shiro/Associated Press
This is an odd scenario for the ACC, which would send undefeated Clemson to the playoff as the No. 1 seed if the Tigers win but would likely be left without a team in the playoff if North Carolina pulled off the upset.
According to Dan Hope of OrangeandWhite.com, North Carolina head coach Larry Fedora called Clemson “the best defense that we’ve played this year.” And it’s for that reason Clemson is a heavy favorite to head into bowl season with an unblemished record.
The Tigers have allowed over 400 yards of total offense just twice this season (against Notre Dame and South Carolina) while holding five opponents under 250 yards.
The Tar Heels will need to produce some defense of their own and force a few impact turnovers to keep this one close.
Prediction: Clemson 38, North Carolina 28
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