Winners and Losers: There are six teams left vying for four CFP spots
And then there were six. We think.
Thanks to Week 13 losses from Baylor and Notre Dame, it looks like the College Football Committee will be able to whittle its focus down to six contenders for the four-team playoff: Clemson, Alabama, Oklahoma, Iowa, Michigan State and Stanford.
For now.
The committee’s top four teams from last week all took care of business this weekend, but Clemson, Alabama and Iowa can still slip up in their respective conference title games.
The lack of a league title game was a huge disadvantage to the Big 12 last year as Baylor and TCU ended up on the outside looking in. This time around, Oklahoma wrapping up the league with a convincing win over Oklahoma State on Saturday night appears to be a boon for third-ranked Sooners’ chances of making the playoff.
In the ACC and SEC, No. 1 Clemson and No. 2 Alabama will both be favorites in their conference championship games.
The top-ranked Tigers, who stayed undefeated Saturday with a 37-32 win over rival South Carolina in the Palmetto Bowl, now have a win-and-in scenario. No. 14 North Carolina (11-1) awaits the Tigers to decide the ACC. Clemson needs to step its game up to handle the Tar Heels, who are riding an 11-game winning streak.
Meanwhile, Alabama, which disposed of Auburn 29-13 in the Iron Bowl, will square off with offensively challenged Florida team in Atlanta. The No. 12 Gators were throttled 27-2 by No. 13 Florida State on Saturday night. The Tide should take care of business and lock up a playoff spot.
Following wins over Nebraska and Penn State respectively, No. 4 Iowa (12-0) and No. 5 Michigan State (11-1) will square off in a Big Ten title game that essentially is a College Football Playoff quarterfinal game: win and you’re in the final four.
Despite its undefeated record, there’s no way Iowa loses to MSU and cracks the top four – its schedule is just too weak. The same goes for the Spartans even though they may have the most impressive collection of wins (Oregon, Michigan and Ohio State) in the country. This one is a must-win. It makes things easier on the committee, too.
Losses from No. 6 Notre Dame and No. 7 Baylor further cleared things up for the committee. Baylor dropped out of the playoff by losing No. 19 TCU 28-21 in double overtime on a rainy, cold night in Fort Worth.
Saturday night’s Notre Dame at Stanford game lived up to its billing as a playoff elimination game. The sixth-ranked Irish came up on the wrong end as Stanford’s Conrad Ukropina drilled a 46-yard field goal as time expired to give the Cardinal a 38-36 win.
Notre Dame’s two losses (Clemson and Stanford) are to two of the country’s best teams, but the Irish’s lack of a signature win will be too much to overcome. The team’s lackluster play in recent weeks – especially a sluggish 19-16 win over lowly Boston College that dropped the Irish from No. 4 to No. 6 – will also come into play.
And though the Cardinal need help, Stanford still has a sliver of hope as it heads into the Pac-12 title game against USC. But with it looking like Oklahoma and the winner of the Big Ten title having a spot sealed up, Stanford likely needs losses from both Alabama and Clemson to sneak into the top four.
Crazier things have happened. Here are the rest of Week 13’s winners and losers.
WINNERS
Ty Summers, TCU: For a year, the Horned Frogs stewed over 61-58. Head coach Gary Patterson fixated on beating Baylor and his personal nemesis Art Briles. TCU hoped for a big year, one ending somewhere in the College Football Playoff thanks to a springboard victory over the Bears. None of it went according to plan, and when the two teams finally met on Friday, most of the stars were on the sidelines or not playing at 100 percent, and a torrential, chilly downpour mired the respective offenses in a sloppy slugfest hardly reminiscent of that 2014 shootout. But on the final play, it was Ty Summers, a two-star recruit and former high school quarterback – a Patterson Special, if you will – who slipped by the Baylor offensive line to bring down Devin Chafin short of a first down. It was his 23rd tackle of the game, a school record, and the play that sealed redemption. He’ll probably remember this one.
Marquis Young, UMass: Hey, if it’s your last game of the year, you might as well play like it. Young ran all over Buffalo in a game Buffalo needed to win to get to bowl eligibility (but more on that later), racking up 240 yards and three scores. A stunning 215 of those yards came in the first half. It was a pretty sharp performance for the freshman, his best of the season, and something to build off of in 2016.
Brandon Doughty, WKU: The Hilltoppers’ senior quarterback had a huge day in a 49-28 win over Marshall. He threw for 370 yards and five touchdowns, but perhaps more significantly, put himself in the FBS record books, becoming the first quarterback to have consecutive seasons with 4,000 yards and 40 touchdowns passing (he’s at 4,214 yards and 42 touchdowns thus far in 2015).
He’ll add to those numbers in two more games this season too. WKU plays Southern Miss in the Conference USA title game on Saturday before it learns its bowl destination.
Brian Hill, Wyoming: Hill had 35 carries for 232 yards in the Cowboys’ 35-28 win over UNLV. It was his fourth 200-yard game of the season, and temporarily put him in the lead for most 200-yard games of anyone in 2015.
Alabama RB Derrick Henry tied Hill later in the day with his fourth 200-yard game, but Hill’s efforts have been a bright spot in a 2-10 season for Wyoming. Hill, a sophomore, finishes the season with 1,631 yards rushing and will be a sleeper candidate for preseason All-American honors in 2016.
Frank Beamer, Virginia Tech: Beamer’s bowl streak is continuing. With the Hokies’ win over Virginia on Saturday, Beamer’s team is heading to a 23rd-straight bowl game. The bowl game is a fitting sendoff for the legendary coach, who is retiring after the season.
It was also a victory for members of his staff, too. During the win, reports emerged that Memphis coach Justin Fuente would succeed Beamer as Hokies’ head coach. Those reports also said defensive coordinator Bud Foster and assistant coach Shane Beamer, Frank’s son, would remain with the team. The continuity should serve Virginia Tech well.
LOSERS
Rutgers: Let us paint you a picture. Rutgers and embattled coach Kyle Flood were leading Maryland 31-13 at halftime, en route to what surely appeared to be an easy win to close out a brutal, trying season. Then an extremely Rutgers thing happened: The Scarlet Knights surrendered 656 total yards and got outscored 33-10 in the second half to lose 46-41 at home. Just a complete disaster. Truly impressive.
Iowa State coach Paul Rhoads got fired after his team gave up a huge lead to Kansas State the previous week. Will the same fate await Flood?
Buffalo: Lots of teams sitting at 5-6 heading into this weekend’s games lost, but most of them were underdogs. The Bulls struggled against a 3-8 UMass team, and while Buffalo’s run defense isn’t anything to get excited about (90th in FBS), it still has held opponents to 186 yards per game. As previously mentioned, Marquis Young and company ran for 295 yards. The Bulls had one fewer turnover, more time of possession, more first downs, and nearly the same number of total yards, and still found a way to lose.
Mississippi State: This was not the way to end Dak Prescott’s career at home, Bulldogs. Mississippi State, well, laid an egg in the Egg Bowl. The Bulldogs were potentially playing for a New Year’s Six bowl berth and fell down 21-0 to the Rebels before losing 38-23.
How did the Rebels do it? Well, they didn’t let Prescott beat them deep. Prescott finished 31-of-42 passing for 254 yards, two scores and an interception. The win means Ole Miss finishes the season second in the SEC West while Mississippi State finishes in a tie with Texas A&M for fifth in the division.
Florida: Here’s another team that absolutely lost any chance at a New Year’s Six bowl. OK, OK, sure, Florida can get to one if it beats Alabama in the SEC championship game. But if you watched any of the Gators’ 27-2 loss to Florida State on Saturday, you know there’s no chance of that happening.
Florida’s offense was impotent. The Gators averaged less than four yards per carry on the ground and just over four per pass. Yeah, not great. Meanwhile, the defense tried as much as it could, but there’s only so much you can do when you play a losing game of time of possession and field position.
The Gators will likely finish the season 10-3. It’s a good enough record for a top bowl, but not an elite one. And this team is clearly different with Treon Harris at quarterback than with Will Grier.
Kansas: Congratulations, Kansas. You’re now infamous. The Jayhawks’ 45-14 Sunflower Showdown loss to Kansas State on Saturday meant KU became the first Power 5 team since Washington in 2008 to go winless in an entire season.
The 0-12 Jayhawks were outscored 553-183 this season. If you don’t want to do math, that’s roughly an average of 46-15. Yuck. Things can only get better for Kansas and first-year coach David Beaty (we think) but we don’t begrudge Kansas fans at all for mimicking the Jayhawk mascot.
