NFL against the spread picks: Denver Broncos for the upset – Yahoo Sports (blog)
The Carolina Panthers won on Thursday afternoon. So there will be at least one undefeated team in the NFL after Week 12.
I don’t believe there will be two.
The New England Patriots are in a tough scheduling spot, going on the road to play at the Denver Broncos. Coming off a short week, after taking on even more injuries at wide receiver, the Patriots face the best defense in the NFL. And, as I’ll keep repeating, the Broncos were forced to upgrade the offense a couple weeks ago when Peyton Manning got hurt.
This game is not “Tom Brady vs. Brock Osweiler,” mostly because football is not a one-on-one sport. On the offensive side of the ball, the Broncos showed last week they can be more efficient with Osweiler, who didn’t throw an interception against the Chicago Bears (who looked pretty good on Thursday night). Manning had 17 interceptions in nine games. Osweiler won AFC offensive player of the week. He’s not a great quarterback, but the Broncos are better off with him.
And that defense is elite. If nothing else it’s a fascinating challenge for Brady, the clear MVP of the league at the moment.
I don’t think the Broncos are a better team in the big picture, but they’re at home and this is a great spot for them to pull off an upset. It would also make the AFC race a lot more interesting. The Broncos are getting three points as a home underdog in the Yahoo Pro Football Pick’em, and I’m taking that side.
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Let’s see the rest of the Week 12 slate:
Lions (pick ’em) over Eagles, Cowboys (-1) over Panthers, Bears (+9) over Packers (picked Thursday): Decent winning start, though it was clear a minute into the Panthers game that the Cowboys were not the right side there.
Vikings (+2.5) over Falcons: Don’t think I could stomach picking a healthy Falcons team over a good Vikings team, and it seems Atlanta will be without running back Devonta Freeman.
Bengals (-8) over Rams: Well, it’s a marquee opponent in a game they shouldn’t win, so this is just the type of game the Rams get motivated enough to win. But my rule of thumb is if you lose to the Ravens after Joe Flacco engineers a game-winning drive on a torn ACL, I can’t back you the next week.
Titans (+1.5) over Raiders: Third time in four weeks the Raiders have to travel at least a couple time zones east. I think that can catch up with a team.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston (3) leaves the field following the team’s 32-18 loss to the New …
Chiefs (-5) over Bills: I wonder how healthy Tyrod Taylor is. And the Chiefs are on a nice roll.
Dolphins (+3.5) over Jets: The Jets have been struggling lately, and might be without cornerback Darrelle Revis too. The Dolphins aren’t very good but at very least they can keep this close.
Redskins (+2.5) over Giants: The Redskins are 4-1 at home, 0-5 on the road. They’re just that team this year.
Jaguars (-3.5) over Chargers: If the Chargers looked totally dead last week, imagine when they figured out this week included a trip to Jacksonville to play an early start.
Texans (-3) over Saints: New Orleans’ defense is still a mess even with a new coordinator, I predict.
49ers (+10.5) over Cardinals: Arizona had two huge prime-time games the past two weeks, so this has to be a bit of a let-down spot. And the 49ers did battle last week at Seattle. San Francisco won’t win but the Niners can keep it reasonably close.
Steelers (+4) over Seahawks: If you give the standard 3-point home-field advantage (not sure Seattle deserves more this season), you’re saying they’d be favored on a neutral field over the Steelers? What have the Seahawks done this season to deserve that respect?
Browns (-2.5) at Ravens: You shouldn’t watch this horrendous game. But no matter how screwed up the Browns are right now, I’m not picking the Matt Schaub-Javorius Allen-Kamar Aiken triplets on the road.
Last week: 6-7-1
Season to date: 78-79-4
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Frank Schwab is the editor of Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @YahooSchwab
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