Matchups: Silva's Week 12 Matchups

1:00PM ET Games

New Orleans @ Houston

The Saints return from their bye as three-point dogs at Houston’s domed NRG Stadium. In a game with a 47.5-point total, New Orleans’ team total is just above 22. … Drew Brees has performed better indoors than outdoors throughout his career, averaging 7.96 yards per pass attempt with a 6.0% touchdown rate (TDs/attempts) across 96 domed games. He’s averaged 7.13 YPA with a 4.7% TD rate in 108 outdoor affairs. Although the Texans’ defense has made major strides recently — holding the opposition to three touchdowns over its last 14 quarters — that statistical improvement has come against Zach Mettenberger, Andy Dalton in primetime, and Ryan Fitzpatrick. Brees entered the Saints’ open date with a 12:5 TD-to-INT ratio and 73.5% completion rate over his previous three games. In a matchup pitting against each other teams that each rank top three in the NFL in offensive plays, this projects as a fast-paced potential shootout wherein Brees offers a safe floor and sky-high ceiling. … Tim Hightower finished the Saints’ Week 10 loss to Washington with 11 carries, but eight of them came on the final two drives of New Orleans’ 47-14 defeat. The Saints’ backfield belongs to Mark Ingram, who is averaging 4.56 YPC on the season and on pace for a career-high 64 receptions. Ingram is a mid-range RB1 play versus a below-average Texans run defense that yields 4.30 yards per carry to running backs and ranks 19th in Football Outsiders’ DVOA. … Despite a significant deficit against the Redskins, theoretical passing-game specialist C.J. Spiller managed a 33% snap rate and 34 total yards on ten touches. Perhaps Spiller’s usage will increase coming off the bye, but that’s optimistic thinking. Spiller has yet to top ten touches through nine games as a Saint.

Brees’ target distribution over his last seven games: Brandin Cooks 57; Willie Snead 48; Ben Watson 45; Marques Colston 30; Ingram 29; Spiller 28; Josh Hill 13; Brandon Coleman 9. … Now showing a high floor in addition to big upside, Cooks has exceeded 70 receiving yards in five of his last six games with six touchdowns during that span. Cooks’ matchup is not quite ideal against stout Texans perimeter corners Kevin Johnson and Johnathan Joseph, but Cooks is beginning to show matchup-proof, WR1-caliber qualities. He’s an exciting start in this up-tempo game. … Snead goose egged in Week 10, but was battling a knee injury at the time and will be all systems go coming off New Orleans’ bye. Before the zero, Snead averaged 8.2 targets over his previous five games. He’s a respectable WR3 play, preferably in PPR leagues. … Watson has drawn more than five targets in just 2-of-10 games, while the Texans are 22nd in fantasy points allowed to tight ends. Fantasy owners looking to stream Watson will have to hope the likely fast pace of Saints-Texans compensates for his concerning usage and Week 12 matchup.

Getting back Brian Hoyer from a concussion, the Texans host the Saints as three-point favorites with a team total above 25. I like the chances of this game going over the Vegas total, and see Hoyer as this week’s top QB1 streamer. … Perhaps the coordinator change from Rob Ryan to Dennis Allen will make a difference. Ultimately, the Saints’ biggest defensive flaw is personnel, beginning with an inability to rush the quarterback. Ranked 21st in sacks (22) and dead last in Football Outsiders’ pass-defense DVOA, New Orleans has permitted a league-worst 28:4 TD-to-INT ratio while getting flamed by Eli Manning, Marcus Mariota, and Kirk Cousins for a combined 78-of-105 passing (74.3%), 1,045 yards (9.95 YPA), 14 touchdowns, and zero picks in Weeks 8-10. The Saints have allowed 320-plus passing yards and three-plus TD passes in three straight games, and multiple touchdown passes in eight of their ten games this season. … The biggest risk in teeing up Hoyer is the possibility of the Texans turning this game into a ground-and-pound affair. New Orleans is certainly vulnerable in run defense, giving up 4.98 yards per carry and the fourth most fantasy points in the league to running backs. Alfred Blue logged 54% of Houston’s Week 11 snaps and a team-high 24 touches, and he makes sense as a boom-bust RB2/flex play this week. Should the Saints turn this one into a shootout and force Houston into pass-first comeback mode, passing-game specialist Jonathan Grimes would get more run.

Even at his lofty price tag, DeAndre Hopkins will be the highest-owned wide receiver on DFS sites this week. It’s a deserved distinction after “Nuk” burned up Darrelle Revis (5-118-2) last week. Hopkins’ Week 12 matchup shouldn’t be overlooked, however, especially for DFS players courageous enough to fade the chalk. Dennis Allen may look to make something of a statement in his first game as New Orleans’ defensive coordinator, while Saints shadow CB Delvin Breaux possesses the size (6’1/193) and athleticism to give Hopkins a run for his money. Breaux is the No. 7 overall cover corner at Pro Football Focus. Breaux, however, lost his last two shadow matchups with big-time No. 1 receivers (T.Y. Hilton, 4-150-2; Odell Beckham, 8-130-3). … On the off chance Breaux’s coverage does prevent Hopkins from getting open on more routes than usual, Cecil Shorts and Nate Washington become attractive dart-throw WR3s matching up with every-week burn victim RCB Brandon Browner and retread slot corner Kyle Wilson. If deciding between the two, note that Washington is a full-time player while Shorts only enters in sub-packages. Washington logged six targets and an 84% snap rate in last week’s win over the Jets compared to Shorts’ five targets and 62% playing-time clip. The Texans did give Shorts four carries in the Wildcat formation, enhancing his fantasy stats in Houston’s Week 11 victory.

Score Prediction: Texans 27, Saints 23

St. Louis @ Cincinnati

The Vegas total on Rams-Bengals is 42 — tied for second lowest of Week 12 — with Cincinnati favored by nine. The Bengals’ team total is 25.5 points. … Returning home for a non-primetime game after playing three straight beneath the bright lights, Andy Dalton will face a Rams team that ranks third in pass-defense DVOA and has allowed the second fewest passing touchdowns (9) in the league. The metrics on St. Louis’ defense look imposing, but DC Gregg Williams‘ injury-decimated pass rush has managed four sacks over its last three games. Dalton played well in his primetime stretch, compiling a 5:1 TD-to-INT ratio and passable 7.17 yards-per-attempt average against the Cardinals, Texans, and Browns. The Bengals’ full-on embrace of a pass-first offense has raised Dalton’s floor, while playmaking weaponry keeps his ceiling intact. Even in a sub-par matchup, I’d view Dalton as a relatively safe play in season-long leagues. … Although he lost two short touchdowns to Jeremy Hill last Sunday and will continue to be a poor bet to hit pay dirt on a weekly basis, Giovani Bernard has indeed taken over as Cincinnati’s primary back the past two games. More-effective Gio’s snap rates were 70% and 69% in Weeks 10-11, logging touch totals of 13 and 14. Hill’s playing time was 31% and 31% on workloads of 10 and 13. A superior fit for OC Hue Jackson‘s shotgun-oriented, three-wide offense, Bernard is an every-week RB2 play in PPR leagues now taking on a Rams defense coughing up the seventh most receptions to running backs. … Despite the two-score day, nothing changed for Hill in last Sunday night’s loss to Arizona. He remains a TD-dependent RB2/flex in non-PPR with very little value in PPR.

Dalton’s target distribution since the Bengals’ Week 7 bye: A.J. Green 42; Marvin Jones 29; Tyler Eifert 24; Gio 22; Mohamed Sanu 11; Hill 4. … Green gets another tough draw against red-hot Rams contract-year RCB Janoris Jenkins, who boasts PFF’s No. 5 cornerback grade among 110 qualifiers. In their 2011 college meeting, Georgia’s Green caught four passes for 42 scoreless yards against Jenkins’ Gators, managing one catch for 15 yards in the man coverage of Jenkins, who finished with two pass breakups and a route-jumping interception. Jenkins is ordinarily a stationary right cornerback, however, and Green moves around the formation frequently. He remains a confident WR1/2 play in season-long leagues. … Jones has drawn eight or more targets in four of his last six games, but he has just one touchdown and 58.3-yard average to show for it. Jones should’ve shredded Cardinals No. 2 CB Jerraud Powers in Week 11, but he dropped a pass for a would-be long gain and was later missed by Dalton. Jones is a frustrating, boom-bust WR3 who has rarely boomed lately. St. Louis is allowing the second fewest fantasy points to opposing wide receivers. … My favorite Week 12 fantasy play in Cincinnati’s pass-catcher corps is Eifert versus a Rams defense that’s collapsed in second-level coverage since losing WLB Alec Ogletree (leg). St. Louis gave up 8-111 to Browns TEs in Week 7, seven catches to 49ers TEs in Week 8, 8-125-2 to Bears TEs in Week 10, and 8-121 to Ravens TEs last week.

Road underdogs by nine points, St. Louis heads to Cincinnati with an ugly team total of 16.5 points. … The Rams have the most dysfunctional passing game in football, leaving Todd Gurley as their only true means of generating offense. Coming off his worst game of the season (2.64 YPC, lost fumble), Gurley will face a Bengals run defense that’s come on fast since SLB Vontaze Burfict returned from reserve/PUP four games ago. Cincinnati has not allowed a single rushing touchdown during that stretch, and over its last three games has held Cardinals, Texans, and Browns running backs to 181 scoreless yards on 57 carries (3.18 YPC). The good news for season-long fantasy owners is that you can hang your hat on Gurley’s workloads; he has at least 15 touches in seven straight games, and has been fed even in weeks where the Rams have gotten blown out. With his ownership percentage sure to be at a season low this week, I think Gurley is an intriguing DFS tournament play on the principle of paying up to be contrarian.

Score Prediction: Bengals 24, Rams 20

Minnesota @ Atlanta

One-point home favorites in a game with a 46-point total, the Falcons’ team total is 23.5 versus Minnesota. It’s a seemingly optimistic approximation for a sputtering offense against a Vikings defense that’s allowed 23 points or fewer in 9-of-10 games. … As Atlanta has begun to lean more on the pass — the Falcons have 38-plus pass attempts in six straight weeks — Matt Ryan‘s season-long fantasy ranking has improved to the overall QB14 with multiple touchdown passes in three of his last five games. Ryan is best viewed as a fringe fantasy starter versus a Vikings pass defense that ranks No. 15 in Football Outsiders’ DVOA with the sixth fewest passing touchdowns (13) allowed in the league. Ryan does benefit from playing indoors in a late-November game, while Atlanta’s dependency on Ryan to generate offense could rise if Devonta Freeman (concussion) can’t play. … Tevin Coleman was dreadful off the bench in last week’s loss to Indianapolis, generating no power in his lower half due to a stiff, upright running style, getting stuffed repeatedly on goal-to-go runs, and losing his second fumble of the year. He averaged 2.82 yards per carry against a Colts defense that entered giving up 4.63 YPC to running backs in its previous four games. With all of that said, Coleman would be a high-upside plug-and-play RB2 if he got the start against a beatable Vikings defensive front. On the season, Minnesota ranks 28th in run-defense DVOA and resurrected Eddie Lacy (22-100) last week.

Ryan’s target distribution coming off Atlanta’s Week 10 bye: Julio Jones 15; Roddy White 9; Leonard Hankerson 7; Patrick DiMarco and Terron Ward 4; Jacob Tamme 3; Coleman and Justin Hardy 2. … On or near a league-record-setting pace for single-season catches and receiving yards, Julio will run most of his Week 12 pass routes at disappointing Vikings RCB Xavier Rhodes, who has PFF’s No. 104 coverage grade among 110 qualified cornerbacks. Minnesota’s other corners are 37-year-old LCB Terence Newman and slot CB Captain Munnerlyn, who stands 5’8/182 to Julio’s 6’3/220. … With Hankerson’s hamstring acting up again, Tamme is back in contention as a TE1 streamer. Whereas Tamme has logged stat lines of 6-61, 10-103-1, 8-94-1, and 3-36 when Hankerson has either been inactive or missed much of the game, Tamme’s production dips to 3-19, 4-77, 1-8, 3-32, and 1-6 with Hankerson as a full-time player. On the off chance Mike Zimmer‘s defense sells out to slow Julio, Tamme shouldn’t struggle to eat. … White’s nine targets in last week’s loss to Indy are a mirage. Forcing the ball to White didn’t pay off for OC Kyle Shanahan, resulting in 24 scoreless yards. Leave Roddy on the wire.

One-point dogs at the Georgia Dome, the Vikings’ Week 12 team total is 22.5 points. … After logging a two-month-low 13 carries in last Sunday’s loss to Green Bay, 30-year-old Adrian Peterson should be sporting “fresh legs” against an Atlanta defense permitting the sixth most fantasy points to running backs on the strength of a league-high 13 all-purpose touchdowns allowed. As Minnesota has committed to being a run-foundation team, it’s conceivable OC Norv Turner chalks up Peterson’s diminished Week 11 usage as a mistake and compensates by feeding him relentlessly on Sunday. Peterson’s volume shouldn’t be a concern, but the Falcons’ defense isn’t quite as leaky as its fantasy points allowed suggest. Atlanta has held opposing RBs to 3.49 yards per carry and quietly ranks a respectable 14th in Football Outsiders’ run-defense DVOA. … This year’s no. 24 overall fantasy quarterback, Teddy Bridgewater has just one multi-passing-touchdown performance on the season and has cleared 250 passing yards three times in ten games. Even in the most favorable matchups, Bridgewater is always a low-upside streamer option or two-quarterback-league play. I am still intrigued slightly by his Week 12 outlook beneath a dome and in a matchup with Atlanta’s No. 19 pass defense per DVOA.

Bridgewater’s target distribution since the Vikings’ Week 5 bye: Stefon Diggs 46; Mike Wallace 28: Kyle Rudolph 24; Jarius Wright 21; Peterson 13; Rhett Ellison 10; MyCole Pruitt 9; Jerick McKinnon 8. … As Diggs runs most of his pass patterns against right cornerbacks, he will avoid stationary Falcons LCB Desmond Trufant‘s coverage for most of this game. Facing rookie RCB Jalen Collins instead, this is a plum matchup for Diggs coming off a nine-target Week 11. … Wallace has 26 yards on 14 targets over his last four games with three drops and two weekly goose eggs. Expect Wallace to remain a non-factor versus Trufant. … Last week marked Rudolph’s first game above five targets since Week 2. Torturing a Packers defense that’s been shredded by tight ends for two months, Rudolph (6-106-1) went on to finish as fantasy’s overall TE1 for Week 11 after failing to exceed 30 yards in eight straight games. While there is almost every reason to believe last week was an outlier, Rudolph gets another favorable matchup Sunday versus a Falcons defense yielding the eighth most fantasy points to tight ends.

Score Prediction: Vikings 23, Falcons 21

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