Somewhere along the way, the NBA realized it needed to set its sights on claiming a stake in Christmas rather than Thanksgiving, eventually leaving us with a specific holiday catered towards each. This resulted in an even lazier day embodied by football, food, more football, more food, yelling at your fantasy team, and did I mention food?

Either way, the important part is that we’re receiving the opportunity to spend time with our families by napping through 80 percent of their visit.

Here are your Week 12 matchups and movements (and holiday picks!).

(Home team in CAPS)

DETROIT LIONS (Pick) over Philadelphia Eagles

Vegas Scoring Total: 45.5

It’s hard not to respect the gall of the league for this decision. They had the power to gather the masses prior to Thanksgiving lunch and force them to sit down and watch an undefeated team on the road, or an inner-division battle with crucial implications. Everyone from grandma to Aunt Edna would be still be around rather than on the road in order to make it back before dark. But no. You know what would go great with that first helping of casserole? Mark Sanchez. Thanks a lot, Goodell.

Either way, these are two teams heading in opposite directions. The Eagles have allowed opposing backs to rush for 5.48 YPA in their last four games while the Lions limited the Packers and Raiders to a total of three offensive touchdowns. There’s no telling who will lead the Detroit backfield in touches this week, but unfortunately for Philadelphia, it likely won’t matter.

SWEET POTATOES (+2.5) over Every Other Side

Total: Gluttony

TEASER ALERT!!! If you don’t think I’m kicking sweet potatoes up an additional six points, you don’t deserve any of them. And when you first spot them placed on top the table with those caramelized pecans and crisp-but-gooey marshmallows on top, you’re not allowed to hedge your bet.

DALLAS COWBOYS (Pick) over Carolina Panthers

Total: 46

Should a team that has rattled off 10-of-10 this season be favored on the road? Yeah, probably. But with Tony Romo setting the offensive pace for the Cowboys last week, the Dolphins mustered only 41 offensive plays on the day. This is no longer your Brandatt Weedssel offense that struggled to find their rhythm despite being gifted seven opportunities.

While everyone anticipates the Dez Bryant-Josh Norman bout, Terrance Williams has suddenly began trending upwards with Romo under center. In 2.5 games with the Cowboys starter, Williams has averaged 36.1 fantasy points. In 6.5 games without him, Williams caught for 58.1 points. In other words, Williams is averaging 5.5 more fantasy points with Romo at the helm.

With both teams ranked in the top seven in run percentage, there will likely be fewer plays (think seven or eight possessions) for each to inevitably capitalize on. And quite honestly, in this particular instance, I’m not so sure that favors the road team.

Wait, i have an idea! Let’s go to the NFL Network for their completely unbiased and undoubtedly professional opinions:

How excited is @michaelirvin88 to have Tony Romo back. He came up with a dance to celebrate. It’s… interesting. https://t.co/lPHHoIYCqf

— NFL (@NFL) November 23, 2015

LEFTOVERS (+3.5) over Fresh Out of the Oven

Total: Food poisoning

Lay the points all you want, but I’ll take that extra two weeks of helping yourself to half-full containers over respectively making your plate at the table in front of the entire family any day.

Chicago Bears (+8.5) over GREEN BAY PACKERS

Total: 46

Though the Packers appeared to be lost in their three games prior to playing Minnesota, they recorded six sacks and had a runner (Eddie Lacy, in fact) rush for more than 100 yards for only the second time this season. Still, as much as Green Bay is being made out to be entirely fixed, the Packers allowed Teddy Bridgewater to pass for 296 yards. Why is that worrisome? Because the fewest yards Green Bay has allowed through the air in their last five was the 242 Matthew Stafford produced in an 18-16 Lions win. With the entire lot of the Bears’ offensive standouts returning, this will likely be much closer than the line suggests.

FOUR-DAY WEEKEND (-7) over Three-Day Work Week

Total: Naps

It takes a while to get there, sure, but no one has ever returned to work the following Monday after the holidays and regretted not showing up to the office only three days prior.

HOUSTON TEXANS (-3) over New Orleans Saints

Total: 47.5

If he wasn’t posted as the cover image of this column back in Week 6, Brian Hoyer would once again have his picture cropped at the top. (There’s some unwritten rule that states you’re not allowed to post a picture of Brian Hoyer twice in any given season. One day…)

The last time we saw the Saints take the field, they were busy allowing Kirk Cousins to toss for 324 yards and four scores. Rob Ryan might not be around, but as long as Brandon Browner remains a vital option in New Orleans’ secondary, it doesn’t matter who calls the plays. Browner has an overall grade of 25.2 at Pro Football Focus and ranks as their 112th-best (worst?) corner. DeAndre Hopkins has yet to receive fewer than 11 targets in any game this season and it doesn’t look like that train will stop on Sunday.

Minnesota Vikings (+2) over ATLANTA FALCONS

Total: 46

Sunday was the best and worst possible scenario for Devonta Freeman owners. It was the worst because they experienced what it would be like without Freeman for the remainder of the year, if only for a moment (which is a terrifying proposition). But it was the best because they saw firsthand that he is in zero danger of losing any touches to those behind him.

CINCINNATI BENGALS (-9) over St. Louis Rams

Total: 42

In his first four starts, Todd Gurley rushed for 566 yards on a clip of 6.43 YPC and everyone was happy. Over drafting him had paid off for his owners, the Rams won three of those four games, and Jeff Fisher had reinvigorated the city of St. Louis. In his last three starts, Gurley has rushed for only 200 yards and is averaging 3.28 YPC. Don’t tell Fisher the Bengals haven’t allowed any runner to rush for more than 63 yards in their last three games.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (-3) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Total: 46.5

Without Vincent Jackson in the lineup, Mike Evans was enjoying an offense to himself. He had averaged 13.6 targets since Week 7, catching for fewer than 126 yards only once during that span. Then Jackson returned against the Eagles and Evans fell back to Earth. When together, Evans is averaging 8.6 targets per game, essentially an entire 60 minutes fewer than what he had averaged without his teammate. There’s enough volume for both to be effective, but neither stands out when lined up opposite of one another.

WASHINGTON REDSKINS (+2.5) over New York Giants

Total: 46.5

There are only two noteworthy stats coming out of Washington this week.

• The fewest passing yards the Giants have allowed this season was 227 back in Week 7. Unless you don’t count Matt Cassel as an NFL quarterback, in which case the fewest New York has allowed would be 247 to Jameis Winston.
• The Giants allowed Matt Cassel to throw for 227 yards.

Yes, I realize those are the same. I just wasn’t sure which one got my point across more.

TENNESSEE TITANS (+1.5) over Oakland Raiders

Total: 44

It took only two weeks for the Raiders to become an unmitigated disaster. They continue producing for our fantasy teams — Michael Crabtree, for instance, has received at least 11 targets in three of his last four games — but have looked lost at times. What stands out the most, however, isn’t the fact that their offense has now scored only 27 points since Week 10. It’s more about what their defense has failed to do over that span.

Oakland has defended an average of 70 opponent plays in their last three, which, if counted as their season total, would qualify as the most in the league. Furthermore, the Raiders are defending 74.8 opponent plays per game on the road, 2.8 more than the next closest team. Basically, Tennessee is getting an extra three downs to work with just by showing up. I’ll happily take those odds (and Delanie Walker).

NEW YORK JETS (-3.5) over Miami Dolphins

Total: 42.5

If you can figure out what the hell is going on in Miami, please, be my guest. I’ll gladly redirect all readers to your forum in the comments section.

On offense, Lamar Miller played 66.6% of their snaps against the Cowboys but received only nine touches. Jay Ajayi recorded 25% of offensive snaps but touched the ball six times.

On defense, the Dolphins have allowed three separate runners to eclipse 100 yards in the last three weeks. They’re also allowing the most fantasy points to opposing running backs.

Someone get P.C. Princip…er…Dan Campbell on the phone. Us fantasy owners need an explanation.

JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (-4) over San Diego Chargers

Total: 46.5

The Chargers had hit DEFCON 4 (the one that states you should be on your guard) even before losing Keenan Allen for the year. Without him, San Diego has clearly reached DEFCON 2 status (basically, they’ve checked out).

Philip Rivers had thrown multiple touchdown passes in seven of his first eight games with the entire Chargers offense at his disposal. Without Allen, he’s thrown only one in the last two weeks. San Diego has also averaged only 61.7 plays per game in their last three despite sitting around 70 for most of the year (they’re still averaging 68.6 on the season). DEFCON 1 isn’t in play just yet (unless discussing Melvin Gordon’s career) but another porous performance could signal the end.

Arizona Cardinals (-10) over SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

Total: 44.5

The fewest fantasy points Carson Palmer has scored this season was 15.9 (against St. Louis) in a game in which he still threw for 352 yards. There’s no telling who will lead the Cards in receiving from week to week as the lot of Michael Floyd, John Brown, Larry Fitzgerald, and J.J. Nelson have all captured that title at least once this year, but rest assured knowing Palmer remains one of the safest plays no matter the matchup (and especially in this one).

Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5) over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Total: 45

Apparently no one told Thomas Rawls that Seattle’s offensive line is dreadful. Rawls, for instance, has started only four games but has rushed for the 13th-most yards in the NFL. He also leads the league with a whopping 6.0 YPC and has rushed for 187 more yards than Marshawn Lynch despite having 10 fewer carries. The Steelers remain sneaky great on defense (as they now rank in the top six in rushing DVOA) but another 20-plus touches from Rawls could be exactly what the Seahawks need to mask their most obvious fault.

If only Seattle could prevent him from singing jazz during the offseason…

DENVER BRONCOS (+3) over New England Patriots

Total: 44

In his first career start, Brock Osweiler posted a 74 percent completion rate and finished with an overall rating of 127.1; Peyton Manning had finished with a rating over 100 only once in his last 11 games (dating back to last season). That bodes well considering opponents have called pass against New England during a league-high 65 percent of offensive plays (though we can chalk that causation up to both playing from behind and plan of attack). Slated with a peculiarly low total — the Patriots haven’t been involved in a projected total lower than 47.5 since Week 3 — I’ll be limiting my exposure entirely in this one.

CLEVELAND BROWNS (-3) over Baltimore Ravens

Total: 41.5

I refuse to head into the holidays riddled with only remnants of Johnny Manziel’s football career. Let’s instead celebrate the reincarnation of another:

Gary Barnidge’s weekly finishes when McCown started Week 3-8 (PPR): TE2, TE4, TE3, TE5, TE5, and TE6.

— Graham Barfield (@GrahamBarfield) November 24, 2015

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone.

***

(Editor’s Note: The Buffalo Bills–Kansas City Chiefs line hadn’t posted at the time of submission and therefore wasn’t previewed.)

Last Week: 7-4-1

Week 11 Exposure: Matthew Stafford, Cam Newton, Devonta Freeman, Charcandrick West, DeMarco Murray, Jonathan Stewart, Larry Fitzgerald, Dez Bryant, Julio Jones, Eric Ebron, Panthers, Eagles

Season: 79-59-6, 57.2 percent

Week 12 Exposure: Brian Hoyer, Mark Ingram, T.J. Yeldon, Chris Johnson, DeAndre Hopkins, Allen Robinson, Larry Fitzgerald, Odell Beckham, Delanie Walker, Jordan Reed, Jets, Texans