NFL Week 12 Picks: Cowboys stun Panthers, Seahawks over Steelers – CBSSports.com
After 52 weeks of waiting, it’s finally Thanksgiving again, which is awesome because it’s my favorite holiday.
If it were up to me, Thanksgiving would be held twice a month, every other month. However, if that happened, turkeys would probably go extinct, so it’s probably a good thing that I don’t get to decide when holidays are.
Anyway, since Thanksgiving’s right around the corner, right now seems like a perfect time to mention a few things I’m thankful for.
First, I’m thankful that I started Andre Johnson in fantasy this week.
Sure, he only put up 1.3 points, but I learned a valuable lesson about loyalty and how you just can’t give up on people. ANDRE, I WILL NOT GIVE UP ON YOU. I’m going to start him every day for the rest of the season because I KNOW that breakout game is coming and we all know it will most likely come as soon as I bench him.
Secondly, I’m thankful that I’m not the person in charge of wrangling up squirrels at the Vikings stadium. They seriously need to speed construction up on that dome in Minnesota.
Let’s not forget the day’s real MVP… This squirrel that ran out onto the field during @Packers – @Vikings pic.twitter.com/0zYxLPS7hG
— SNF on NBC (@SNFonNBC) November 23, 2015
It’s been a banner year for animals inside of stadiums. Not only did this squirrel go crazy in Minnesota, but we also saw a cat at a Saints game and a raccoon at an Eagles game. At this point, I won’t be surprised at all if a lemur shows up at an NFL game this week.
Speaking of lemurs, I think I just sidetracked myself. What was I talking about again? Oh yeah, things I’m thankful for.
I’m thankful that I wasn’t a starting quarterback in Super Bowl XLVII because both of those guys had some bad luck over the weekend. Colin Kaepernick (shoulder) and Joe Flacco (torn ACL) are both done for the season after being placed on injured reserve.
I’m also thankful that I no longer live in the Bay Area so that I’m not subjected to 49ers games every Sunday.
Finally, I’m thankful for the comments section here because without it, I wouldn’t feel so loved.
I’m going to look into monkey picks for next year. Wish I would’ve thought of it sooner.
Enough talking about what I’m thankful for though, it’s time for this week’s picks.
Actually, before we get to the picks, here’s your weekly reminder that you can check out the picks from every CBSSports.com NFL Expert by clicking here.
The reason you should click over and check out the other experts this week is because my CBSSports.com colleague, Will Brinson, went 10-4 against the spread in Week 11. I never go 10-4 against the spread. However, I might this week because I now know Brinson’s secret to making good NFL picks.
Apparently, all you have to do is eat as many Bojangles chicken fingers as possible while making your picks and then wash each chicken finger down with a craft beer that I’m 90 percent sure Brinson brews in his basement.
Beer + @bojangles1977 = a great #goacc celebration. @WillBrinson & I got pretentious with it. http://t.co/21bhf0Wom6 pic.twitter.com/h9E3LIZwcU
— Bronce the 4th (@bronceIV) September 23, 2015
Unfortunately for me though, the closest Bojangles is 3,000 miles away, so I guess I won’t be eating any chicken fingers before making this week’s picks.
Week 12 Picks
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Carolina (10-0) at Dallas (3-7)
Thursday, Nov. 26, 4:30 p.m. ET (CBS)
The oddsmakers in Vegas must’ve started drinking their Thanksgiving wine early because that’s the only way to explain why the Panthers opened as a 2-point underdog in this game, right?
IT DOESN’T MAKE ANY SENSE… OR DOES iT MAKE PERFECT SENSE?
I’m ALREADY CONFUSED and that’s exactly what they want in Vegas: Confused gamblers. The entire city was basically built by confused gamblers.
Why wouldn’t Vegas favor the quarterback who’s undefeated and hasn’t lost a regular season game since November 2014? The crazy part is that they actually did. Not only is Tony Romo 3-0 this season, but he’s actually on a seven-game winning streak dating back to last season. Romo’s last loss came on Nov. 27, 2014, which means he’s gone longer between losses than Cam Newton and the Panthers, who are currently on a 14-game winning streak.
Newton’s last loss came on Nov. 30, 2014, which means Romo’s winning streak is three days longer.
Over their past 16 games, Newton is 14-2, while Romo is 13-3. What I’m trying to say is that I think Vegas got this one right, this game’s going to be close. I hate picking against a 10-0 team, but I made a vow to Dez Bryant‘s monkey that I’d pick the Cowboys to win as long as they’re alive in the playoff race and as long as Tony Romo’s healthy. Well, the Cowboys are alive and Romo’s healthy.
Dez Bryant has the most adorable baby monkey ever: https://t.co/2ndQVeeHpl pic.twitter.com/pbJn4uetp2
— NFLonCBS (@NFLonCBS) October 22, 2015
Plus, look at that thing, I can’t let him down.
The Pick: Cowboys 23-20 over Panthers.
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New York Giants (5-5) at Washington (4-6)
Sunday, Nov. 29, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
Redskins games have become pretty predictable this season. If Washington’s on the road, then Kirk Cousins is going to throw 17 interceptions and the Redskins are going to lose. If the game’s at home, then Cousins is going to throw for 300 yards and three touchdowns and the Redskins are going to win.
If you’re a numbers person and need some stats to back that up, just consider this: The Redskins are 0-5 on the road in 2015 and in those losses, Cousins has thrown more interceptions (8) than touchdowns (5) and only averaged 231 yards per game.
On the other hand, over Washington’s past four home games, the Redskins have gone 4-0 with Cousins averaging 283.5 yards per game. Cousins has also thrown nine touchdown passes along with ZERO interceptions in those four home games.
I’ll be honest, I’m 8-2 picking Redskins games this season and I owe it all to the “Never pick against Cousins at home, but always pick against him on the road” formula. Also, my actual cousins would hate me if I picked against a guy named Cousins this week. They would probably cancel Thanksgiving.
The Pick: Redskins 30-27 over Giants.
Can Moses save the Falcons season? (Twitter/CaliATL11)
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Minnesota (7-3) at Atlanta (6-4)
Sunday, Nov. 29, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
Starting the season 5-0 and then falling out of the playoff race isn’t easy, but the Falcons are trying to do it.
OK, only 4 teams have missed the playoffs after starting 5-0: 09 Broncos, 09 Giants, 03 Vikings, 93 Saints. Falcons making a run at it
— Ben Volin (@BenVolin) November 22, 2015
That’s definitely a list you don’t want to be on.
The good news for the Falcons is that their biggest strength should actually help them this week. Atlanta has the No. 1 run defense in the NFL, which means we get to see an immovable object vs. an unstoppable force on Sunday because the Vikings have the league’s leading rusher in Adrian Peterson.
I took an online theoretical physics class once and I learned that the immovable object almost always wins.
The Pick: Falcons 24-20 over Vikings.
Will the Steelers be able to handle the loud and happy 12s? (Instagram/Kaitlyn_Hollis)
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Pittsburgh (6-4) at Seattle (5-5)
Sunday, Nov. 29, 4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)
Both these teams basically had a bye last week, or at least it seemed like it. The Seahawks won by 16 points over San Francisco, which was almost as impressive as the Steelers 21-point win over Cleveland.
The Steelers probably won’t be winning by 21 on Sunday though because there’s a good chance they won’t even score 21 because it’s not easy to put up points at CenturyLink Field. The stadium is famous for harnessing the sound of the “12th man,” which makes it almost impossible for an opposing offense to hear anything.
The stadium is so loud that it actually takes some getting used to for opponents, which is a luxury the Steelers won’t have. Since 2012, Russell Wilson and the Seahawks have gone 6-0 against AFC teams at home. It’s hard for an AFC team to get used to the sound because they only get to play in Seattle once every eight years.
It’s not just AFC teams though. Since 2012, no team has won in Seattle on their first trip. The Seahawks are 25-4 at home over the past three years and all four of those losses came to teams that were making their second or third trip since 2012 to CenturyLink (I’m using 2012 as the baseline year because that’s when the Seahawks became good again and coincidentally, that’s when the crowd became noticeably louder).
Anyway, what I’m trying to say is that I think the Steelers offense is going to struggle.
And the answer to this question is yes.
Is it required that the announcers mention how loud the Seahawks stadium is at least 10 times per game?
— Handegg-chan (@Handeggchan) November 22, 2015
Seahawks fans will probably be extra loud on Sunday too because I think they’re still kind of bitter about that Super Bowl loss to the Steelers. Bill Leavy’s not officiating Sunday’s game, is he?
The Pick: Seahawks 25-22 over Steelers.
Note: This game will mark the first time in Ben Roethlisberger‘s career that he’s played in Seattle.
There are going to be a lot of sad Peyton Manning fans on Sunday. (Instagram/Laurenkmeredith)
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New England (10-0) at Denver (8-2)
Sunday, Nov. 29, 8:30 p.m. ET (NBC)
When the NFL schedule game out in April, I circled this game on my calendar for two reasons:
1. I like circling things on my calendar AND
2. Because it was Brady vs. Manning.
Unfortunately for us though, the 17th edition of Brady vs. Manning won’t be happening on Sunday. Instead, we’re getting the first edition of Brady vs. Osweiler, which is basically like showing up at your mom’s house for Thanksgiving and finding out that instead of turkey, she’s serving hamster meat and cole slaw. There’s nothing wrong with hamster meat and cole slaw, it’s just not the same as turkey.
Anyway, we still don’t know how good Osweiler is because the Broncos didn’t really ask him to do anything against the Bears. Against Chicago, he spent four quarters throwing short, safe passes and handing the ball off.
The Broncos should be able to keep this close though and that’s mainly because there’s a 50 percent chance Brady isn’t going to have anyone to throw to by the time Sunday rolls around. The Patriots don’t have very many healthy receivers, so it won’t be a shock to see a low-scoring defensive battle, which is not what we’d want if this was Brady-Manning, BUT IT’S EXACTLY WHAT I WANT FOR BRADY-OSWEILER.
The Pick: Patriots 23-16 over Broncos.
By the way, I’m wondering, what’s harder to find right now? An Osweiler jersey or a Bundchen jersey?
Jersey Of The Night (H/T @a3j_) pic.twitter.com/QkPSbj1Jdt
— Darren Rovell (@darrenrovell) November 24, 2015
Week 12 picks: All the rest
Eagles 27-24 over Lions
Packers 30-23 over Bears
Colts 34-31 over Buccaneers
Saints 24-17 over Texans
Cardinals 30-13 over 49ers
Last Week
Best Pick: Last week I picked the Bucs to upset the Eagles in Philadelphia and then the Bucs went out and upset the Eagles in Philadelphia. Did I know that Jameis Winston was going to explode for five touchdown passes or that the “Muscle Hamster” Doug Martin was going to run for over 200 yards? No, of course I didn’t. But I did know that Mark Sanchez was going to throw a bunch of interceptions because that’s what Mark Sanchez always does.
The good news for Eagles fans is that at least Sanchez was adding style points to his interceptions on Sunday.
I think Sanchez just threw a no look interception
— Drew Dinkmeyer (@DrewDinkmeyer) November 22, 2015
No-look interceptions are way more exciting to watch than regular interceptions, and trust me, they’re not easy to pull off. For those of you who weren’t lucky enough to watch Sanchez play on Sunday or if you’re just wondering why Eagles fans are always crying, here’s the kind of throws Sanchez is known for.
Sanchez’s first 4th quarter interception. Why? pic.twitter.com/s2PFl5Cyft
— Josh Paunil (@JoshPaunil) November 23, 2015
The Eagles would’ve been better off with a butt-fumble there.
Worst Pick: I’m not going to sit here and blame my worst pick on a squirrel, but I have to say, if I had known that there was going to be a squirrel at the Vikings-Packers game, there’s no way I would’ve picked Minnesota to win.
Everybody wants to watch #GBvsMIN. #gameoftheweek pic.twitter.com/F1R2aIOs6e
— Minnesota Vikings (@Vikings) November 22, 2015
It’s a well-known fact that squirrels like cheese and there’s no doubt in my mind that the Packers paid this squirrel in cheese to distract Adrian Peterson, and the distraction clearly worked because Peterson only ran for 45 yards.
Even the squirrel ran for more than that.
Anyway, have a great Thanksgiving and remember to stay away from the hamster and squirrel meat, unless that’s your thing.
Picks Record
Straight up in Week 11: 7-7
SU Overall: 94-66
Against the spread in Week 11: 7-7
ATS Overall: 76-84
Exact score predictions: 1
You can find John Breech on Twitter or on Facebook and if he’s not doing one of those two things, he’s probably eating hamster meat and cole slaw and having the worst Thanksgiving ever.
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