NFL Picks Week 12: Packers, Cardinals roll; Saints upset Texans – NOLA.com

Tired of those bye weeks and want to get more out of your Red Zone channel or Sunday Ticket subscription? Well, wait no more.

It’s back to the 16-game schedule. And that leads to my next question: What is more exciting? 16 games in one week or 16 games with a Thanksgiving buffet and its leftovers?

Tough choice, I know, especially if you have a wife who cooks like mine.

We had a nice mini-comeback last week, finishing .500 or better both against the spread and straight up for the first time since Week 9. Let’s hope this is the start of something good – just in time for the home stretch.

Good luck, y’all, and Happy Thanksgiving!

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Here we go with Week 12 (home team in bold):

16 points: GREEN BAY over CHICAGO, Thursday at 7:30 p.m.

Not surprisingly, the Bears proved why they’re not to be taken seriously in choking away a chance to get to 5-5 and back in the playoff hunt at home against a banged-up Denver team. Meanwhile, that sure looked like the real Packers in Minnesota last Sunday, huh? With a win, Green Bay would even this 94-year series at 93-93-6. Against the spread: Packers minus-9.5.

Last week: No pick due to byes. 16-point record: 2-1.

15 points: ARIZONA over SAN FRANCISCO, Sunday at 3:05 p.m.

When a team is fighting through the tough games and still coming out on top, that says a lot about how good they really are. Such is the case for Arizona in coming through the past two weeks against Seattle and Cincinnati. Oddly, though, their defense seems to be faltering. They need to figure that out before the postseason. And sorry, I’ve occasionally missed on these previously, but no way I am giving a home dog double digits in a division game. Against the spread: 49ers plus-11.5.

Last week: No pick due to byes. 15-point record: 2-2.

14 points: CINCINNATI over ST. LOUIS, Sunday at noon

These two cities are huge rivals in baseball, but only play each other once every four years in football. In fact, they have only faced off 12 previous times since their first meeting in 1972. In other words, it won’t be that big of a deal to say the Rams still haven’t defeated Cincinnati since 2003. Interesting footnote if you like to play unders, these two have combined to score less than 43 points in five of the past six meetings dating back to 1993. I hate giving this many points, but I have no idea who is going to play quarterback for the Rams. Might be a good play not to play this one at all. Against the spread: Bengals minus-9.5.

Last week: Carolina over Washington (W). 14-point record: 9-1. ATS, Panthers -7.5 (W)

13 points: CAROLINA over DALLAS, Thursday at 3:30 p.m.

Something has got to give in this one, right? I know you’re all screaming, “Whaddya talkin’ about, Derry?” Well, the Panthers have won 14 consecutive regular-season games, but the Cowboys have won seven in a row with Tony Romo under center. You’re right, that’s still not enough to make me pick Dallas. P.S. The lines-makers are nuts. Thanks for the early Christmas present. Against the spread: Panthers minus-1.5.

Last week: New England over Buffalo (W). 13-point record: 8-3. ATS, Patriots -7.5 (L)

12 points: JACKSONVILLE over SAN DIEGO, Sunday at noon

Here’s one of those games that if you could have shown me this pick at the beginning of the season I would’ve said, “Yeah, right.” Three in a row for the Jags? Well, I’m surely not picking the stinkin Chargers. Against the spread: Jaguars minus-3.5.

Last week: Atlanta over Indianapolis (L). 12-point record: 8-3. ATS, Falcons -6.5 (L)

11 points: KANSAS CITY over BUFFALO, Sunday at noon

What the heck got into the Chiefs? Alex Smith still has trouble finding wide receivers, but who needs wide receivers when you have like 11 running backs or something? Take a look at their schedule: this team has a legitimate shot at winning out after losing five in a row. Against the spread: Chiefs minus-3.5.

Last week: Miami over Dallas (L). 11-point record: 6-5. ATS, Dolphins, even (L)

10 points: INDIANAPOLIS over TAMPA BAY, Sunday at noon

Really, I have absolutely nothing against the Buccaneers. It’s true I’m still not a believer, because beating up on Mark Sanchez and Matt Cassel really isn’t all that impressive. With or without Andrew Luck, I like the Colts and the under in a close one. Against the spread: Bucs plus-3.5.

Last week: Denver over Chicago (W). 10-point record: 8-3. ATS, Broncos -1.5 (W)

9 points: NEW ORLEANS over HOUSTON, Sunday at noon

Before you send me to the sanitarium, I want you to know I understand this pick makes no sense. Maybe that’s why I like it so much. Let’s just say I think the defense will come out and play inspired ball and lure a lot of Who Dats into thinking that it really was all Rob Ryan’s fault. But even though the Texans have been hot, and the Saints don’t really have anyone to cover DeAndre Hopkins, plenty of quick passes and a heavy dose of Mark Ingram should be enough in this high-scoring affair. Against the spread: Saints plus-2.5.

Last week: Philadelphia over Tampa Bay (L). 9-point record: 5-6. ATS, Buccaneers +6.5 (W)

8 points: SEATTLE over PITTSBURGH, Sunday at 3:25 p.m.

Despite the fact the Seahawks have been anything but impressive for most of the season, now is the time they either make their playoff push or fold like a wet, mildewed, ripped tent. Although word is Marshawn Lynch could miss the rest of the season, Thomas Rawls has been a fantastic find. They’ll need him to come through again, although that’s much easier to do in front of the 12th Man. Against the spread: Seahawks minus-4.5.

Last week: Seattle over San Francisco (W). 8-point record: 5-6. ATS, 49ers +12.5 (L)

7 points: NEW ENGLAND over DENVER, Sunday at 7:25 p.m.

Even though it likely won’t be Peyton Manning the Patriots have to defend, it doesn’t mean they won’t be any less fired up at Mile High. (Yes, that’s what I call it. I still call their defense the Orange Crush, too. I’m old.) Still going to hedge my bet by taking the points. First time Denver has been an underdog in back-to-back home outings since the last two games of the 2010 season. Against the spread: Broncos plus-5.5.

Last week: Jacksonville over Tennessee (W). 7-point record: 10-1. ATS, Jaguars -2.5 (W)

6 points: OAKLAND over TENNESSEE, Sunday at noon

Clearly, the Raiders are better this season, but they’re not quite ready for prime time. More often than not though, they’re winning the games they’re supposed to win, and they certainly should win a game against a team that has just one home victory since the start of the 2014 season. P.S. This line is either a gift or a trap. I’ll let you decide. Against the spread: Raiders minus-1.5.

Last week: Arizona over CIncinnati (W). 6-point record: 8-3. ATS, Cardinals -2.5 (W)

5 points: DETROIT over PHILADELPHIA, Thursday at 11:30 a.m.

Just in time for Turkey Day, we’re all subjected to a full three hours of Mark Sanchez. Looks like the Lions are headed to the buffet for seconds. Tryptophan, do your thing. Zzzzzz. Against the spread: Lions, even.

Last week: NY Jets over Houston (L). 5-point record: 7-4. ATS, Jets -2.5 (L)

4 points: CLEVELAND over BALTIMORE, Monday at 7:30 p.m.

Poor Ravens. An already bad season has turned into Aunt Fanny’s fruitcake. No more Justin Forsett or Joe Flacco this season, and even beating a team like the Browns could be a real problem. The real question is why is this game on Monday night? Howard Cosell must be rolling over in his grave. Against the spread: Browns minus-2.5.

Last week: Detroit over Oakland (W). 4-point record: 4-7. ATS, Lions +1.5 (W)

3 points: MIAMI over NY JETS, Sunday at noon

Very quickly, it appears, the J-E-T-S have come back down to E-A-R-T-H. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have continued to play solid football under interim coach Dan Campbell. Could be a very low-scoring game. Against the spread: Dolphins plus-4.5.

Last week: Kansas City over San Diego (W). 3-point record: 2-9. (Two in a row!) ATS, Chargers +3.5 (L)

2 points: MINNESOTA over ATLANTA, Sunday at noon

Different coach, same results in November for Atlanta. Right on cue, Matty Ice has begun to melt, as proven by the blowing of a 14-point lead in the second half to mediocre Indianapolis. Meanwhile, the Vikings couldn’t keep their winning streak going against a desperate, ticked-off Packers team, but they should be able to get this one. Against the spread: Vikings plus-2.5.

Last week: Baltimore over St. Louis (W). 2-point record: 5-6. ATS, Ravens -1.5 (W)

1 point: WASHINGTON over NY GIANTS, Sunday at noon

Although the Redskins have lost five consecutive games to the G-Men, they haven’t lost at home this season since the opener against Miami. If this spread doesn’t move toward three or four, the bookies are gonna make a killing with all the money on the Giants. Against the spread: Redskins plus-1.5. (This might be 3.5 by Sunday.)

Last week: Minnesota over Green Bay (L). (At least I said sorry for the jinx ahead of time.) 1-point record: 5-6. ATS, Vikings, even (L)

* Spreads are gathered from Odds Shark on Monday of each week.

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Last week STRAIGHT UP: 9-5. Season: 93-67 (.581).

Last week AGAINST THE SPREAD: 7-7. Season: 72-88 (.450).

POINT TOTALS

Week 11: 67/105 possible points. Weekly rank: T45 out of 116. Overall: 808/1,249. Overall rank: T16 of 241.

Week 11 READERS winner: Brian Sackett, 93/105.

Overall READERS leader: Robert Hobbs, 854/1,249.

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PREVIOUS COLUMNS (click on week to view)

Week 11: 9-5 straight up, 7-7 ATS

Week 10: 3-10 straight up, 5-9 ATS

Week 9: 7-6 straight up, 7-6 ATS

Week 8: 8-6 straight up, 6-8 ATS

Week 7: 10-4 straight up, 4-10 ATS

Week 6: 9-5 straight up, 8-6 ATS

Week 5: 11-3 straight up, 5-9 ATS

Week 4: 8-7 straight up, 6-9 ATS

Week 3: 13-3 straight up, 10-6 ATS

Week 2: 7-9 straight up, 7-9 ATS

Week 1: 8-8 straight up, 7-9 ATS

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Jim Derry can be reached at [email protected] or 504.232.9944. Follow him on Twitter at www.twitter.com/JimDerryJr. 

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