The Line: Houston (-1)

The American Athletic Conference’s Western division—one of the most pleasant surprises in the sport this season—will be decided Friday when Navy and Houston, both with just one loss on the season, square off in the Lone Star State.

Navy has been a cover machine recently, winning against the spread in eight of its last 10 matchups and nine of its last 10 following a victory, per Odds Shark. The nation’s No. 2 rushing attack has put up more than 400 yards and at least five rushing touchdowns in each of its last two games, and it will face a Houston run defense that hasn’t been at its usual best these last two weeks.

Houston’s undefeated season came to an end last weekend at UConn, when the Huskies forced four turnovers from the Cougar offense. Taking care of the ball will be a priority in this one for Houston, as Navy has the least turnovers of any team in the FBS this season.

The host Cougars are one-point favorites at the moment at most places, but a few spots have the Midshipmen as the favored team. Either way, I’m sticking with a Navy team that is just on a huge roll right now.

The Pick: Navy (+1)

The Line: Iowa (-1.5)

This has all the makings of a letdown loss for Iowa, doesn’t it? Undefeated Iowa has one fewer day of preparation than normal for this Friday showdown in Lincoln, and Nebraska—coming off a bye week—needs an upset win to secure bowl eligibility.

Both teams have been higher scoring as of late, with Iowa hanging at least 31 points on its last five opponents and Nebraska doing the same against its last three. Defensively, though, these two are far apart—the Hawkeyes are ranked 15th nationally in yards per play, while the Huskers are 90th.

Iowa has also been taking care of business away from home this season, going 4-0 straight up and against the spread. The Hawkeyes let Indiana come back late in their last road game, but before that, they clobbered a good Northwestern team by a score of 40-10 in Evanston, Illinois.

If this game had a bigger point spread, I’d be tempted to pick Nebraska to cover. But the Hawkeyes know they have to keep that undefeated record up if they want to get into the College Football Playoff. Iowa wins a close one in Lincoln this year.

The Pick: Iowa (-1.5)

The Line: Baylor (-1.5)

Baylor put itself back into the playoff picture Saturday night with a road win over previously undefeated Oklahoma State. The Bears need to win out and get some help in order to win the Big 12, and their next opponent is a bitter rival that came close to pulling off a huge upset last weekend against Oklahoma.

TCU is banged up all across the field, with several key defensive players and star wide receiver Josh Doctson out for the rest of the season due to injury. The Frogs will be without center Joey Hunt again, and dual-threat quarterback Trevone Boykin is “not 100 percent yet” after sitting out the loss to Oklahoma with an injury, per Carlos Mendez of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram. 

Baylor could be down to its third-string quarterback this week, but the 6’5″ Chris Johnson filled in admirably for Jarrett Stidham last weekend. The Bears were able to find their explosive edge on offense again with 700 yards against Oklahoma State, and their defense played some of its best ball of the entire season.

The advanced stat profiles at Football Study Hall project a three-point win for Baylor in this one, and that’s about where my mind is heading into this Friday night showdown. If Boykin plays, he’ll be able to drag the Frogs into a shootout. But the overall depth of the Bears and their health on defense will be too much as they look to stay in the title hunt.

The Pick: Baylor (-1.5)

The Line: Michigan (-1.5)

With the highly anticipated first clash between head coaches Urban Meyer and Jim Harbaugh kicking off before Michigan State’s home game against Penn State, we won’t know if this game will play a role in determining the Big Ten East champion until later in the afternoon.

What we do know, though, is that Ohio State needs a big-time rebound on the offensive side of the ball in order to knock off the Wolverines in the Big House. The Buckeyes put up a paltry 132 yards against Michigan State, and now they’ll face a Michigan defense that has allowed just 209.5 yards per home game this season.

Outside of the wild loss to Michigan State, Michigan’s offense has been outstanding at home, too, putting up an average of 34 points per game. Quarterback Jake Rudock is peaking at just the right time, completing 70 percent of his passes for 1,033 yards, 10 touchdowns and two interceptions in his last three games.

Like several other rivalry games this weekend, this one is basically a pick ’em—in fact, OSU opened as the favorite before the line swung toward Michigan. Ohio State definitely has the talent to beat Michigan away from home, but it’s hard for me to trust the Buckeyes after the problems they showed last week. The Wolverines have the momentum, the hotter quarterback and home-field advantage in what is sure to be a classic showdown.

The Pick: Michigan (-1.5)

The Line: North Carolina (-6.5)

North Carolina’s streak of impressive blowout wins came to an end last weekend as it needed overtime to knock off Virginia Tech in head coach Frank Beamer‘s last home game with the Hokies. Now UNC will look to keep its playoff hopes alive with another road victory—this time against in-state rival NC State.

The Tar Heels will definitely have some revenge on their minds after getting blown out at home by the Wolfpack last season. UNC only put up 207 yards of offense in that game, and now it averages a crazy 7.44 yards per play. Defensively, the Heels have allowed no more than 31 points in a game this season.

NC State is coming off a home win against Syracuse, and it has been up and down in terms of offensive success and balance this season. The Wolfpack have gotten better production through the air over the last few weeks and have multiple weapons to use on the ground.

The two ranked teams NC State has faced this season both put up big numbers on offense. North Carolina is built to do exactly that, and I’m picking the Tar Heels to roll into the ACC title game with momentum from a good-sized win away from home. 

The Pick: North Carolina (-6.5)

The Line: USC (-3.5)

The story of this matchup has flipped in the last couple of weeks, and now it seems UCLA has the momentum again heading into a rivalry game that will determine who wins the Pac-12 South Division.

UCLA continues to move the ball well with true freshman quarterback Josh Rosen, who hasn’t thrown an interception since the Bruins’ mid-October loss to Stanford. The Bruins defense came through with a big-time performance last weekend against Utah, holding the Utes to nine points after allowing at least 500 yards in four of their previous five games.

Since giving Utah its first loss of the season, USC has pulled out close wins against Cal, Arizona and Colorado—two six-win teams and a four-win one—and lost by 20 to Oregon. The USC defense gave up more than nine yards per play against Vernon Adams Jr. and the Ducks, and its currently ranked 106th nationally against the pass.

UCLA is coming off the better defensive performance and has had a more consistent offense in recent weeks. I could see USC pulling off a tight win at home, but I’m taking the Bruins and the extra 3.5 points.

The Pick: UCLA (+3.5)

The Line: Ole Miss (-1)

As Bleacher Report’s Barrett Sallee wrote Tuesday, the Egg Bowl might not command a ton of national attention on rivalry weekend, but it has the makings of an instant classic.

The name of this game is offense. Ole Miss has the top offensive attack in the entire SEC with Chad Kelly and a stacked group of wide receivers, and Mississippi State isn’t too far behind the Rebels with Dak Prescott, who is arguably playing the best ball of his entire career. 

Both defenses were recently lit up by Arkansas, but they are almost identical in terms of scoring and yardage this season. Ole Miss will be coming off a strong performance against LSU, but Mississippi State has won the last five Egg Bowls played in Starkville.

This is one of the toughest matchups to pick this week. As much as I was impressed from Ole Miss’ big win over LSU last weekend, I’m going to lean toward Mississippi State here. The Bulldogs are at home, and I trust Prescott to take better care of the football than Kelly, especially in a tight game.

The Pick: Mississippi State (+1)

The Line: Florida State (-2)

Florida might be the one with a spot in its conference championship game and some hopes of reaching the College Football Playoff, but Florida State has looked like the better team in recent weeks.

Since shutting down Georgia in Jacksonville, Florida has beaten three teams with losing records by a combined 18 points. The Gators narrowly avoided disaster against two-win FAU last weekend, as their offense has been less than stellar in the Swamp as of late.

Florida State rebounded from a close loss to No. 1 Clemson by doubling up NC State and blowing out FCS program Chattanooga. These young Seminoles have been tested in every single one of their road games this season, and Florida’s defense will be a tough matchup for an offense that hasn’t been a model of consistency. 

I expect this to be a low-scoring contest, but I’m going to go with the hotter team in this situation. Florida’s offense just doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence, and the favorites have covered in 13 of the last 17 meetings between these two Sunshine State rivals, per Odds Shark. Florida State ends Florida’s playoff shot this weekend.

The Pick: Florida State (-2)

The Line: Stanford (-3.5)

Notre Dame’s playoff hopes hinge on its final matchup of the season, when it faces Stanford down on the Farm. The Cardinal went their usual route of a big win following a tough loss last weekend, while Notre Dame pulled out a tight victory against Boston College and lost a couple more key players to injury in the process.

The Irish will most likely be without starting running back C.J. Prosise, which is another blow to an offense that has had the absolute worst luck with injuries this year. KeiVarae Russell, the team’s top defensive back, will miss the game with a fractured tibia. On top of all that, Notre Dame must bounce back from turning the ball over five times last weekend against the Eagles.

Stanford is a much healthier team and will have home-field advantage for this one. Christian McCaffrey is on fire right now from an all-purpose perspective, as the Heisman contender will be a handful for a Notre Dame defense that allowed almost six yards per carry to Boston College’s struggling offense.

The Cardinal are 5-1 against the spread at home this season, while Notre Dame has only covered twice in five matchups away from South Bend. Notre Dame has battled through injuries time and time again this season, but its most recent losses might be too much against a Stanford team that has its eyes on a Pac-12 title.

The Pick: Stanford (-3.5)

The Line: Oklahoma (-6.5)

Perhaps the biggest rivalry game of the weekend is none other than Bedlam, the annual showdown between Oklahoma and Oklahoma State that has produced some dramatic results in recent seasons. Both teams have just one loss, but Oklahoma is the one that can wrap up an outright Big 12 title with a win here.

The health of both starting quarterbacks will be crucial to this matchup. Oklahoma quarterback Baker Mayfield left last week’s game against TCU with a concussion, but he has been cleared to practice and is expected to play. Likewise, Oklahoma State’s Mason Rudolph tweaked his ankle in a loss to Baylor but still managed to battle through the pain.

Oklahoma can rely on a stronger defense and running game for this matchup against Oklahoma State, as Samaje Perine proved last week he could make big plays on a hurt ankle of his own. The Cowboys allowed 700 yards to Baylor and could not get anything going on the ground—something that has been a problem for them this season.

As much as Oklahoma State has a knack for playing close games this season and coming from behind, I think Oklahoma has the advantage on both sides of the ball here. The Sooners will want to get revenge from last season’s heartbreaking loss in Norman and impress the playoff committee with a double-digit road win.

The Pick: Oklahoma (-6.5)

No. 2 Alabama (-13.5) vs. Auburn

Will Muschamp‘s Auburn defense has improved in the second half of the season, and Jeremy Johnson seems settled again as the No. 1 quarterback on the Plains. But Alabama has been downright dominant away from home this season and will be looking to avenge what happened the last time the Iron Bowl was in Jordan-Hare Stadium. Alabama takes this one by at least two touchdowns.

The Pick: Alabama (-13.5)

Oregon State vs. No. 18 Oregon (-34.5)

While Oregon’s offense is reaching nuclear levels of heat right now with Vernon Adams and Oregon State has been victim to several big-time blowouts this season, the Beavers always seem to play the Ducks closer than expected. Thirty-four-and-a-half points might be a little too much, especially considering Oregon doesn’t really need any style points for a championship run.

The Pick: Oregon State (+34.5)

No. 1 Clemson (-17.5) vs. South Carolina

This is a tricky point spread for a contender that hasn’t covered big ones in the last two weeks, but South Carolina is coming off a loss to FCS program The Citadel. After hanging close in SEC games since the abrupt resignation of Steve Spurrier, I expect South Carolina to fall flat against a Clemson team getting ready for a big ACC title game against UNC.

The Pick: Clemson (-17.5)

No. 17 Northwestern (-3.5) vs. Illinois

Both teams have something big to play for in this one—Northwestern is shooting for double-digit wins, while Illinois needs an upset in order to become bowl-eligible. I’m riding with the Wildcats’ stingy defense here, especially against an Illinois team that has only had one big offensive game this entire Big Ten season, and that came against lowly Purdue. 

The Pick: Northwestern (-3.5)

UConn vs. No. 25 Temple (-12)

UConn spoiled Houston’s undefeated season and achieved bowl eligibility last weekend, while Temple bounced back from its loss to USF with a win over Memphis. Temple’s offense and UConn’s defense have both improved over the last few weeks, and I’ll pick the Huskies to keep things closer than expected in an Owl home win.

The Pick: UConn (+12)

Western Michigan vs. No. 24 Toledo (-9)

Western Michigan was straight-up gashed on the ground in back-to-back losses to Bowling Green and Northern Illinois. Star running back Kareem Hunt looks to be at full speed again for the Rockets, and he’ll keep Toledo in the running for the Group of Five’s big bowl bid in a solid Toledo home win.

The Pick: Toledo (-9)

Note: There are no early lines posted on OddsShark for Penn State vs. No. 6 Michigan State and Washington vs. No. 20 Washington State because of the injury statuses of Michigan State quarterback Connor Cook and Washington State quarterback Luke Falk, respectively.

Top 25 rankings refer to the Associated Press poll. All spreads via Odds Shark. All historical spread info via TeamRankings.com. All betting percentages (which side has seen more action) via Sports Insights. All advanced stats via Football Study Hall or Football Outsiders. 

Justin Ferguson is a college football writer at Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @JFergusonBR.