NFL picks against the spread: 5 best bets for Week 11 – SB Nation
It’s only taken me about 10 years of gambling on sports to realize that I’m not very good at it, which to be fair is a lot faster than it takes most other people. So it stands to reason that if I follow all of my dumebst instincts as a casual football bettor, then reverse them at the last second, I will be much better.
I’ve stuck with this strategy all year on team Oddsshark in the Westgate SuperContest. I’ve hit more than I’ve missed. This week’s picks were painful for me to make, but I have to stick with betting against every fiber of my being if I want to achieve any amount of success.
On the season: 27-23
Last week: 2-3
This week’s picks:
Washington +7 over PANTHERS
The Panthers are 7-2 ATS on the season, so I would love more than anything to ride the hot hand on this one and cast my lot with Cam Newton and Luke Kuechly. Washington has overachieved my own extremely low expectations for them; however, they’ve done so against some pretty wretched defenses.
The Panthers defense in Charlotte is about as far a cry as you can imagine from New Orleans on the road, Kirk Cousins is going to learn that the hard way. The trends agree with me as well- Washington is 7-15 in their last 22 against the spread, while Carolina is 5-1 ATS in their last six. I like Carolina to win by double-digits in this one, but I’m a Big Moron so I changed my pick at the last second to Washington +7.
Jets -2 over TEXANS
One of the key tenets to my strategy here is to embrace my irrational overvaluing of teams coming off of big primetime wins. After J.J. Watt dropped a PG-rated smackdown on Andy Dalton, it’s only natural to assume that the Texans are better than we gave them credit for.
The Jets haven’t been a great team against the spread as of late, going 1-3-1 in their last five. These teams are so similar in their identities and talent that I feel like this is the type of match-up that would favor the home team. The Texans control their own destiny in the trash barge that is the AFC South, so I have to lean that way in this one. But I’m a Big Moron so I changed my pick at the last second to the Jets -2.
Buccaneers +5.5 over EAGLES
Mark Sanchez has to be an improvement over Sam Bradford right? At the very least he looks more like a professional athlete than a deer stepping in front of a big rig on 95 South.
Tampa is winning ugly, if at all, and despite the Bucs 4-1 record ATS in their last five, I just can’t see them walking into Philadelphia and hanging with the Eagles. Philly’s division title hopes are still very much alive going into this game and I always like to put my money on a team with something to play for. But I’m a Big Moron so I changed my pick at the last second to the Buccaneers +5.5.
CARDINALS -5 over Bengals
Simply put, the Cardinals have the worst best team in football for the past three years. As a casual fan, I still feel like the Cardinals consistency has to be a fluke. They’ve been ingrained in my head for so long as a disaster of a franchise that I don’t even believe my own eyes. This is the Arizona Cardinals we’re talking about here, they can’t keep this streak going, right?
65 percent of the public money is being laid on the Bengals to get back to the team that we saw in their first 8 games of the year, and I would be inclined to agree with those folks. Throw in the fact that the Bengals are 4-1 ATS on the road and 7-1-1 total ATS this season, and I’m gobbling up the five points and not looking back. But I’m a Big Moron so I changed my pick at the last second to the Cardinals -5.
But I’m a Big Moron, so I changed my pick at the last second to Cardinals -5.5.
Bills +7 over PATRIOTS
New England is so damn good at home. They’re 16-5-2 against the spread in their last 23 games in Foxboro. As a noted moron, I put a lot of stock in the fact that the Patriots are doing this while taking every other teams’ best shot, as opposed to all other games where teams just roll over for their opponents.
I also like to imagine that Rex Ryan is going to coach like he’s in the Super Bowl and try all sorts of weird shit just because he so very desperately wants to outsmart Belichick in his own home. If Belichick spends one extra second thinking about Ryan during the week he does a great job of hiding it because he just seems like he coaches against a faceless set of data every week. Ryan’s definitely playing on tilt, and the Patriots are lions that need not concern themselves with the opinions of sheep. But I’m a Big Moron so I changed my pick at the last second to Bills +7.
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