Goal Line Stand: Week 11 Rankings

Updated 11/20 at 6:45 ET. Monitoring Darren McFadden’s health. Removed Ryan Mathews. Moved DeMarco Murray up. Moved Alshon Jeffery/Jay Cutler down. Jeffery will likely be removed. Moved Carson Palmer down (receivers’ health).

“I don’t like you, and you don’t like me.” This is how a conversation between fantasy owners and Darren McFadden may have started two months ago. Few players have provided more fantasy heartbreak than “DMC.” McFadden followed his breakout 2010 with an injury-riddled 2011, and closed out his Raiders career averaging 3.34 yards per carry from 2012-14.

It wasn’t a guarantee that McFadden would even get a job for 2015, let alone be fantasy relevant. But the former No. 4 overall pick bided his time as Joseph Randle flamed out and Christine Michael faded away. Thrust into workhorse duty for an offense missing its quarterback, McFadden has now handled the ball at least 20 times in four straight games, averaging 26.3 touches since supplanting Randle.

He’s hardly gone gangbusters, averaging 3.8 yards per carry on the year, and 3.92 over the past month. What he has done in stay healthy, and provide some semblance of order to a backfield that had been a chaotic committee. With Tony Romo returning for Week 11, one might assume that McFadden’s time as a bell-cow is through, but that couldn’t be further from the truth. OC Scott Linehan is as committed to the run as anyone in football, while Romo’s presence should enhance McFadden’s numbers rather than harm them. Defenses can no longer key in on the Cowboys’ back, with Romo providing softer fronts and wider rushing lanes.

McFadden should continue to see 20-25 touches per game, and in Week 11 they’ll be coming against a defense coughing up the second most rushing yards in the league, as well as the second most fantasy points. McFadden remains stiff and upright, while his once prodigious athleticism has diminished. But he has the right role at the right time, and will be an every-week RB1 for as long as he can stay on the field.   

Editor’s Note: You hear a lot about “shadow coverage” and how it might affect a QB-WR combo, nevermind the entire game script for an NFL team. Over on RotoGrinders, top-ranked daily fantasy expert “JMToWin” breaks down the shadow situations you want to avoid – and some matchups you want to exploit – this week on FanDuel. Check it out.

Week 11 Quarterbacks

QB Notes: Tom Brady has lost his No. 2 and 3 weapons in back-to-back weeks, but has produced at least two touchdowns in all nine of his starts. With Rob Gronkowski playing at an MVP level and Danny Amendola an able Julian Edelman replacement, Brady won’t be leaving his perch any time soon. … Playing easily the best football of his career, Cam Newton is averaging 26.1 fantasy points per game, putting him behind only Brady. Newton hasn’t averaged that many points since his rookie year. The Redskins don’t have the personnel to slow him down, especially in Carolina. … Derek Carr finally had a “bad” game, but still managed 302 yards and two scores. The Lions had surprising success against Aaron Rodgers in Week 10, but they’re unlikely to repeat it against the league’s most improved sophomore. … Carson Palmer’s Week 11 ranking could ultimately depend on the health of Michael Floyd (hamstring) and John Brown (hamstrings), but only Brady has thrown for more touchdowns. Palmer is fresh off shredding the Legion of Boom in Seattle, so the Bengals aren’t an overly imposing home matchup, especially since they’ll be traveling 1,800 miles on a short week.

In the midst of the most baffling stretch of his career, Aaron Rodgers heads on the road for a tough matchup with the Vikings. Thankfully for owners, Rodgers’ struggles have still produced plenty of fantasy points, but neither his floor nor ceiling is overly reliable at the moment. … Philip Rivers has lost some weapons, but he’s also had a week to game plan. The Chiefs’ shaky pass defense has improved dramatically in recent weeks, but Rivers will be throwing all day at home. Perhaps there will be some mistakes, but there will definitely be plenty of points. … Matt Ryan is 20th in the league in touchdowns, sandwiched between Marcus Mariota and Josh McCown. He has a highly-appealing matchup in the Colts, but Ryan has boomed more than he’s busted this season, albeit while keeping a reasonable floor. … Blake Bortles has produced multiple scores in five straight starts, but is coming off a brutally-inefficient performance against a Ravens defense that had been struggling. The Titans are a better unit, though beset by injuries. Bortles’ weapons and fantasy numbers keep him in the top 10, but don’t be surprised if the second half of his season isn’t nearly as productive as the first.

Making his first start since Week 2, Tony Romo gets a Dolphins defense that played well in Week 10, but is nevertheless vulnerable at every level. Miami has an under-sized secondary, and Romo is no doubt itching to get Dez Bryant going. Returning to a full cupboard of weapons and a ground game that’s gotten going in recent weeks, Romo should immediately reassume QB1 status. … Both Andy Dalton and Russell Wilson are in something of a slump, but Dalton has produced twice as many scores this season, including two rushing touchdowns to Wilson’s zero. Wilson has a nice home matchup in the 49ers, though Eric Mangini’s unit has allowed only 73 yards on 26 QB rushes (2.81 YPC). Dalton’s overall body of work gives him the edge. … Matthew Stafford has been all over the place, but has produced at least two scores in 3-of-4 starts since getting benched against the Cardinals. For Week 11, he gets a Raiders team allowing the second most passing yards in football. … Tyrod Taylor has only four aerial scores over his past four starts. Although he has a sky-high ceiling, he’s established a basement-level floor. Working in his favor for Week 11 is likely comeback mode/garbage time in New England.

Marcus Mariota has 28 fewer rushing attempts than Andy Dalton. That’s something that has to change down the stretch. Although it comes on a short week, Mariota has a plus matchup in a Jaguars defense allowing the sixth most fantasy points to rival signal callers. … The Cowboys’ defense doesn’t create many sacks or interceptions, but has been solid against the pass. Expect Ryan Tannehill to come in near his season average of 20.8 fantasy points. … Mark Sanchez averaged 21.6 fantasy points in 2014, but will be dealing with a supporting cast that’s gotten worse. He also displayed a low ceiling last season, never tallying more than two scores. The Bucs are a good matchup, but there’s little reason to expect Sanchez to go off. … Ryan Fitzpatrick is recovering from (non-throwing) thumb surgery, but will be good to go against the Texans. He’s apparently still chapped that coach Bill O’Brien sent him packing. “FitzMagic” has thrown for two touchdowns in 7-of-8 healthy starts. … Jay Cutler is playing genuinely great football, but even No. 18 is probably a stretch against the Broncos’ elite defense.

The Chargers are a great matchup for Alex Smith, but there’s only so much a quarterback with two multi-score performances can do. … The Rams got toasted by Jay Cutler in Week 11, but Joe Flacco simply doesn’t have the weapons to take advantage of St. Louis’ overly-aggressive unit the way Cutler did. … On the one hand, Brock Osweiler can’t be any worse than Peyton Manning. On the other, he’s a total unknown, and one with plenty of red flags. Osweiler has some nice weapons at his disposal, but it’s far from a guarantee that he Wally Pipps his future Hall-of-Fame teammate. … The turnover-causing Eagles are not a good matchup for Jameis Winston, even though Winston has taken to buttressing his floor with ground scores. …  Like Brock Osweiler, Matt Hasselbeck has some nice weapons at his disposal, but Hasselbeck should be considered more likely to go off the rails than repeat his solid Weeks 4 and 5. … Irrespective of game plans, Teddy Bridgewater having only seven passing touchdowns in nine games is embarrassing. … Case Keenum makes big plays … for both the offense and defense. He might go off once or twice, but it’s not worth predicting when.  

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