NFL against the spread picks: Underdogs ruled last week
If you like taking underdogs, you cleaned up last week.
The NFL had an incredible 11 underdogs cover in 14 games in Week 10. Of those 11 underdog winners, 10 won outright. The only one to cover and not win was the New York Giants against the New England Patriots, and we all know how close the Giants came to winning that one.
One of the favorites to cover, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, needed a fairly controversial holding penalty that erased a Jameis Winston fumble at the goal line. Or else it would have been 12 of 14 underdogs covering. The Carolina Panthers and the Pittsburgh Steelers were the other favorites to cover. Gil Brandt of NFL.com had it as nine underdogs winning outright (presumably he graded Dallas as a small favorite; Tampa was a small favorite in the Yahoo Pro Football Pick’em), and said that was the most underdogs to win since Week 7 of the 2001 season.
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Mostly this is just a reminder that the NFL is tough to predict, because all the teams are relatively the same. There are some really good teams and some really bad teams and a decent gap between them, but the rest of the teams aren’t separated by much. Look at the Detroit Lions winning at the Green Bay Packers last week. Or the Houston Texans winning at the Cincinnati Bengals.
The sports media as a whole froths at the mouth talking about CHAOS! when a top-10 college football team or two gets upset, but this kind of thing happens in the NFL every week. This week, there is only one NFL game with a spread higher than a touchdown. That’s part of what makes the sport compelling. So many games are ultimately decided by a play or two that could could go either way, and that also leads to a randomness in outcomes.
But since it’s still fun to guess, here are the picks for Week 11 of the NFL season:
Jaguars (-3) over Titans (picked Thursday): Amazing, but there’s a good chance the Jaguars will be tied for first place by the end of the day Sunday. If you’ve seen them play either of the last two weeks, you know how nutty that really is.
Colts (+6) over Falcons: I don’t really think Matt Hasselbeck saves the day. People love to remember his good game at Houston this season, but forget how much the Colts struggled at home the week before against Jacksonville. But I don’t really trust the Falcons either.
Broncos (+1) over Bears: I’ll keep saying it — the Broncos had the 32nd ranked starting quarterback in the NFL this season, in terms of rating. They were 7-2 despite that. Do we think Brock Osweiler will now become the 32nd best starting quarterback? If he’s any better than 32nd, it’s an upgrade. The Bears are playing well, but this line is a gift.
Raiders (-2) over Lions: The Raiders have been notoriously bad on the road through the years, especially traveling east, but this year they’re 2-2 on the road with a 2-point loss and a 3-point loss. I’m not scared of taking them in this spot.
Dolphins (pick ’em) over Cowboys: I don’t know that we can just assume Tony Romo slides right back into the lineup after seven games off and doesn’t have any rust at all.
Buccaneers (+6) over Eagles: The Eagles have been favored in seven of their nine games, and they haven’t been more than a 3-point underdog all season. I don’t understand oddsmakers’ infatuation with this team whose last impressive performance came in August.
Redskins (+7) over Panthers: Don’t think Washington gets the win, but it can keep the game close. But keep in mind this crazy stat from this week’s post on which teams are evaluating their quarterbacks for 2016: Kirk Cousins has a 122.6 rating in four wins and a 66.7 rating in five losses. No middle ground.
Rams (+1.5) over Ravens: No idea why I’m picking the Rams, because they’ll mail in this one. If it was a good team they’d look prepared and ready to play. That’s what happens with talented and poorly coached teams.
Jets (off) over Texans: No line in the Yahoo Pro Football Pick’em because of Brian Hoyer’s status. I’d pick the Jets either way.
Chiefs (-3) over Chargers: The Chargers are too beat up, and have too little to play for, to pick them here.
Packers (+1) over Vikings: A totally square play for a square reason — I think Aaron Rodgers just has one of those MVP-like games and carries his team to a win it desperately needs.
49ers (+13) over Seahawks: When you pick every game, there are a few in which you’ll absolutely hate both sides but need to go with one. This is one of those games.
Cardinals (-4) over Bengals: The Arizona crowd will be fired up, the Cardinals are playing well and the Bengals are on a short week after a terrible performance. Cincinnati is a good team but this isn’t a good spot.
Patriots (-7) over Bills: The Patriots already won by 8 at Buffalo in Week 2, in a game that wasn’t really as close as the 40-32 final score. I know New England has taken on some big injuries but not sure why the result will be too much different in New England.
Last week: 7-7
Season to date: 71-71-3
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Frank Schwab is the editor of Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @YahooSchwab
