Though this would normally be a longer lede — you know, something meant to stimulate your mind, initiating the idea of some intriguing narrative or thought process taken into account from a weekend chalked full of riveting football — I’m still blind from the Jaguars uniforms last night.

Here are your Week 11 matchups and movements (and picks).

(Home team in CAPS)

CAROLINA PANTHERS (-7) over Washington

Vegas Scoring Total: 44.5

Washington was a wonderful story at the beginning of the year. They ran the ball well (even leading the league in rushing four weeks into the season), they defended the run better than anyone and above all else, they didn’t turn the ball over. Kirk Cousins had morphed himself into more of a game manager than his former alias of a loose cannon.

Then the clocks turned to Week 5, Ryan Grant fell down in the flats, and suddenly the Washington professional football team we all grew to respect was no more.

Not all was lost. They likely found their quarterback of the future and still appear spry from time to time; their 47-14 victory at home against the Saints proved that. But Mark Ingram was the only starter not to rush for more than 120 yards against them in the last five weeks, and he exited in the second quarter (but not before averaging 15.4 yards per carry). Along those same lines, the Panthers have accumulated 37 runs of 10 or more yards and will probably add to that total this week.

DETROIT LIONS (Pick) over Oakland Raiders

Total: 49.5

I don’t even know where to begin. You probably had no intentions of starting any Lions this week, but everything points in their direction.

• The Raiders are one of only three teams defending more than 69 offensive plays per game.
• Opponents have passed on Oakland 64.4 percent of the time, third-most in the league.
• Until Teddy Bridgewater braved 35-40 mph gusts (weak arm and all), no quarterback had passed for fewer than 263 yards against Oakland this season.
• Only the New Orleans Saints, New York Giants, Cleveland Browns, and Pittsburgh Steelers have allowed more raw passing yards than the Raiders this season. Those four teams are on bye.

No, you probably didn’t intend on using Matthew Stafford in any sort of stack this week. But I didn’t want to pick them, and look at me now. Let’s regret our decisions together.

Dallas Cowboys (-1) over MIAMI DOLPHINS

Total: 47

Though the Dolphins are one of only two teams allowing an average of 24 fantasy points to opposing backfields, the combination of LeSean McCoy and Karlos Williams are the only two runners to eclipse 100 yards since Dan Campbell took over. Still, in cutting Christine Michael earlier this week, Darren McFadden will have to get caught stealing underwear before Dallas decides to give any amount of touches to Rod Smith, Tre Williams, and the newly acquired Robert Turbin.

Indianapolis Colts (+5) over ATLANTA FALCONS

Total: 47.5

In his first game with new offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, Frank Gore touched the ball a whopping 29 times (28 in the form of carries). I’m not too sure how many of those types of performances a 32-year-old can take, but the Falcons have allowed 21.4 fantasy points per game despite limiting opposing backfields to 3.7 YPA. As long as he manages to stay upright for the next 60 minutes of his career, he should do more than prosper.

BALTIMORE RAVENS (-2.5) over St. Louis Rams

Total: 41.5

Case Keenum is playing in a professional football game.

MINNESOTA VIKINGS (-1) over Green Bay Packers

Total: 44.5

We live in a world where the Packers’ best (and potentially only) means of offense is throwing the ball to Davante Adams 21 times. They likely didn’t game plan for that, but even naming James Starks as their starter backfired after seeing him plod his way to 96 total yards on 21 touches. Considering Ronnie Hillman is the only ‘back to rush for more than 100 yards against the Vikings in the last eight weeks, one can only assume Green Bay is in store for even more trouble come Sunday.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6) over PHILADELPHIA EAGLES

Total: 45

We will never be able to take Mark Sanchez seriously because he ran directly into the ass of his center. But whether that lives in infamy for the rest of eternity (it will) has no relation to his performance in Philadelphia’s offense. Or, more importantly, Jordan Matthews‘ performance.

With Sanchez under center last season, Matthews was targeted 54 times and recorded three more touchdowns (six total) than any other Eagles wideout. Even if Philadelphia continues to run some machination of Miles Austin and Nelson Agholor on the outside, Matthews opportunities and, in turn, production shouldn’t be affected.

I wouldn’t look for Mike Evans’ production to come to a halt anytime soon, either. Evans has averaged 13 targets since the Bucs returned from their bye in Week 7, including 32 in his last two games. The Eagles moved Byron Maxwell inside last month to keep him from shadowing their opponents’ best weapons and for a few weeks, it worked. He even made Reddit; “Last 4 games, Byron Maxwell has allowed 107 total receiving yards, no touchdowns…”, I believe the headline read. But over the last two games, slot receivers against Philadelphia have hauled in a total of 16 receptions for 164 yards and three scores. Evans doesn’t move inside much, but in the rare instance he does, all bets are off.

CHICAGO BEARS (-1.5) over Denver Broncos

Total: 41

Since returning from injury in Week 4, Jay Cutler has an 11-to-3 TD-to-INT ratio and 65 percent completion rate. He’s looked terrific in the fact that he’s been asked to keep everything within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage and for the first time in his career, it’s worked. What’s even more interesting, however, isn’t the fact that Cutler and the Bears have quietly been above average, or that a win and Packers loss this week would pit Chicago and Green Bay against one another for second place in the NFC North in Week 12. No, what’s most compelling is that this game inevitably features the 2016 Broncos at the 2016 Bears.

Jeremy Langford, after all, is only half a season into the first year of his rookie deal while Matt Forte is all but considered out the door. Even stud wideout Alshon Jeffery could potentially be gone in 2016. And on the other side, this debut is essentially everything for Brock Osweiler. Being in the final year of his rookie deal, it’s either the beginning of a new era for the Broncos or the end until whomever replaces him next season. So, am I excited? Abso-freaking-lutely.

But C.J. Anderson had as many tackles as he had carries last week, so yeah. Bears win.

ARIZONA CARDINALS (-5) over Cincinnati Bengals

Total: 49

In case you weren’t already excited for this one, I’ll just leave this here:

Me to Bengals player: Were you here when Carson was here? Player(w/smile): “You mean the year he quit on us?” It’s on. #CINvsAZ @nflnetwork

— Omar Ruiz (@OmarDRuiz) November 18, 2015

San Francisco 49ers (+12.5) over SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

Total: 39.5

In their four wins this season, the Seahawks allowed zero offensive touchdowns. That’s good, right? Well, what everyone usually fails to mention is that those four wins came against Matthew Stafford, Jimmy Clausen, Colin Kaepernick, and Matt Cassel. Seattle has allowed 16 touchdowns in their five losses. If Blaine Gabbert can command the 49ers offense beyond the 50-yard line, a field goal should be enough to cover this abysmal total (and matchup).

Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) over SAN DIEGO CHARGERS

Total: 45

Le’Veon Bell is the only runner to rush for more than 72 yards against the Chiefs in the last five weeks, but that might not matter since the Chargers can’t run the ball, anyway. No, really. Melvin Gordon’s 3.6 YPA in his rookie season rivals only (gulp) Trent Richardson in his first year.

It likely doesn’t matter when considering exposure in this one. Simply pay for Charcandrick West and get out of the way. It’s entirely possible every fantasy player has noticed that since his first start against Minnesota — one of the more polarizing letdowns by any fantasy player this season given the circumstance and abundance of waivers used to claim him at the time — West has averaged 25 touches for 137 total yards and one touchdown. Yes, per game. Note Justin Forsett is the only starting running back not to exceed 100 yards against the Chargers this season.

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (-7) over Buffalo Bills

Total: 48.5

When these two teams last met in Week 2, the Patriots ran the ball only 10 times.

In unrelated news, remember that $80 you spent on James White in free agency?

(Editor’s Note: The New York Jets–Houston Texans game had no line at the time of submission and therefore wasn’t included.)

Last Week: 8-5

Week 10 Exposure: Blake Bortles (17 points), Aaron Rodgers (22.1), Kirk Cousins (28.9), Justin Forsett (8.4), DeAngelo Williams (7.4), Todd Gurley (16.4), DeMarco Murray (14.9), Allen Robinson (13.6), Brandon LaFell (7.6), Demaryius Thomas (10.6), Richard Rodgers (11.7), Jordan Reed (16.4), Packers (3), Eagles (7)

Season: 72-55-5, 54.5 percent

Week 11 Exposure: Matthew Stafford, Cam Newton, Devonta Freeman, Darren McFadden, Charcandrick West, Lamar Miller, Golden Tate, Mike Evans, Danny Amendola, Michael Crabtree, Eric Ebron, Greg Olsen, Seahawks, Panthers