Thursday's Picks: Rangers will win 10th straight
Welcome to the NHL Daily Picks where hockey writers Adam Gretz and Chris Peters make their selections for all of the day’s games.
New York Rangers vs, Tampa Bay Lightning, 7:30 p.m. ET
It’s been more than a month — October 15, to be exact — since the New York Rangers lost a hockey game in regulation. That loss came in the fifth game of the season against the Montreal Canadiens to drop them to 3-2-0. All they have done since then is go 11-0-2, earning 24 of a possible 26 points in the standings, while also winning nine games in a row. That is a winning streak they take into Tampa Bay on Thursday night for their first rematch of last year’s Eastern Conference Final.
That winning streak has not only helped the Rangers jump to the top of the NHL standings, but it has helped them put together the best start in franchise history through 18 games.
After reaching the Eastern Conference Final in three of the past four seasons and winning the Presidents’ Trophy a year ago it’s not a surprise that the Rangers are near the top of the standings once again. Not only is this is a pretty deep, skilled team up front, but they also have one of the elite goalies in the NHL that is playing at the top of his game at the moment.
And that is really what this winning streak is all about for the Rangers. Henrik Lundqvist.
He’s stopping nearly 95 percent of the shots he has faced this season and has allowed more than two goals in a game in just two of his 14 appearances. He has yet to allow more than three in any game. You’re not going to lose many games when you’re getting goaltending like that.
What’s amazing about the Rangers’ success so far this season is that the team’s underlying numbers are among some of the worst in the NHL, a development that has led to a belief that they might not be quite as good as their record indicates. They get outshot by an average of three shot and their Corsi percentage (the percentage of total shot attempts taken during 5-on-5 play) is 29th in the NHL, ahead of only the Colorado Avalanche.
While those numbers might be a concern going forward (championship teams are typically near the top of the league in shot-based metrics) some context might be needed.
First, it’s still pretty early in the season and those numbers can still change pretty drastically as the season goes on. There is also the fact that the Rangers haven’t just been winning games this season; they’ve been dominating on the scoreboard. A significant chunk of their games have been played with a lead of two goals or more. More than 246 of their 5-on-5 minutes this season have been played with them leading by two goals or more, by far the highest number in the league (only one other team — Montreal — has spent more than 155 minutes this season with a two-goal or more lead) and that is no doubt taking a toll on their shot numbers. When you’re up by two goals, you’re going to play more conservatively (just as the team that is down by two is going to be far more aggressive).
No matter how they’re actually playing, the Rangers are still winning a ton of games right now and they are going to have a chance to extend that streak on Thursday against a Lightning team that has yet to find its stride this season and is battling some pretty significant injury issues at the moment.
After reaching the Stanley Cup Final and finishing as one of the highet scoring teams in the league a year ago, the Lightning currently find themselves on the outside of the Eastern Conference playoff picture and are only 24th in the NHL in goals per game (2.30). Contributing to that slow start — and making it worse — is a growing list of injured forwards that includes Ondrej Palat, Tyler Johnson, Ryan Callahan, Cedric Paquette, and Jonathan Drouin. It’s possible all could be out of the lineup on Thursday night. That is five of their top nine forwards.
That could be a problem against a team that’s first in the NHL in goals against, third in goals scored, has the best goalie in hockey at the moment, and has won nine games in a row. Pick: Rangers 4, Lighting 1
The rest of Thursday’s Picks
Minnesota Wild 4, Boston Bruins 3
San Jose Sharks 3, Philadelphia Flyers 2
Pittsburgh Penguins 5, Colorado Avalanche 3
Washington Capitals 3, Dallas Stars 2
Montreal Canadiens 4, Arizona Coyotes 1
Ottawa Senators 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 1
Florida Panthers 3, Anaheim Ducks 2
St. Louis Blues 4, Buffalo Sabres 2
The New York Rangers have won nine games in a row. (USATSI)
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