Start ‘Em or Sit ‘Em: Week 11 Start 'Em or Sit 'Em

Start ‘Em or Sit ‘Em is geared toward redraft leagues but can also be used for setting DFS lineups, as these are the players I’ll likely be filling out my cash lineups with on Sunday. As is the case each week, I’m ignoring the Thursday night game.

QUARTERBACK

Start of the Week: Matthew Stafford vs. Raiders: Stafford has faced one of the toughest schedules, going up against the Nos. 1, 3, 5, 5, 9, 11, 13, 17, and 19th-ranked pass defenses in terms of fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. Oakland ranks 26th and will be, by far, Stafford’s easiest test to date, and he gets them at home. Stafford’s remaining stretch-run schedule, for that matter, is one of the rosiest on the books. In a week with not many projected high-scoring games, Raiders-Lions has the highest over-under at 48.5 points. Oakland is favored by two, but both clubs have respectable team totals, with the Lions checking in at 23.25 points. As pointed out in Rich Hribar’s Week 11 Worksheet, the Raiders face the most pass attempts per game (42.6). In two games with new OC Jim Bob Cooter, Stafford has attempted 36 and 38 passes. With no running game to speak of, the offense operates through Stafford. At a 69.39-percent clip, no team is more pass-heavy than the Lions. And Stafford is much better at home. In four starts at Ford Field, Stafford is averaging 282.75 yards, two touchdowns, 1.5 interceptions, and 7.8 YPA on 36.25 attempts per game. Stafford is scoring 21.7 fantasy points per game at home this season. If we’re to factor in the Raiders’ horrific pass defense, Stafford’s ceiling is probably around 30. Oakland also just lost one of its top edge rushers, Aldon Smith, to a one-year suspension this week. He was having a fine season with 36 combined sacks, hits, and hurries. Stafford is a phenomenal DFS play at his cheap price.

Starts

Mark Sanchez vs. Bucs: Sam Bradford suffered a separated left (non-throwing) shoulder and concussion in the Week 10 loss to Miami. Sanchez was pretty terrible in relief, completing 14-of-23 passes for 156 yards and an interception. But in eight starts for coach Chip Kelly last season, Sanchez was a fairly respectable fantasy quarterback, averaging 15.9 points per game. The Eagles run the fastest-paced offense in the league, and there’s whispers they may go even faster with Sanchez under center since he’s well-versed in the system and has been in it for two years. There’s plenty of volume here for Sanchez, and Philadelphia has the sixth-highest implied team total of the week at 25.5 points. The Bucs play strong run defense, but allow the 11th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks, and only the Saints and Browns have surrendered more touchdown passes. Wind is expected to be a factor Sunday, but Sanchez throws so many short passes it may not affect him.

Derek Carr at Lions: Opposite Matthew Stafford on Sunday will be Carr. He’s overall QB9 in fantasy points per game with an 18.7 mark. Carr has topped 300 passing yards in 5-of-8 healthy games, including three-straight, and has tossed multiple touchdowns in 7-of-8. He’s proven somewhat matchup-proof in recent on-paper tough dates with the Jets and Vikings. The Lions don’t present one of those supposed tough matchups, as they’ve allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks and lost two of their top three cornerbacks, Rashean Mathis (concussion) and Josh Wilson (knee), to season-ending injured reserve in the past 7-10 days. No. 1 CB Darius Slay remains, but some combination of Nevin Lawson, Quandre Diggs, and Crezdon Butler will be forced into heavy snaps. Who? Exactly. This is a pass defense to pick on, even for Carr on the road. He’s shown a solid floor and 300-yard, four-touchdown ceiling. Both quarterbacks in this one are strong plays.

Tyrod Taylor at Patriots: Taylor is a somewhat scary proposition after he’s attempted 17 passes or fewer in two of his past three games and been held under 181 yards passing in three-straight. But with the Bills as 7.5-point road underdogs at New England, Buffalo is likely going to have to throw the ball, whether it’s to keep up or catch up to the Patriots. In the previous matchup between these two clubs in Week 2, the Patriots jumped out to a 34-13 lead at one point in the third quarter. Taylor ended up firing off 30 attempts and bringing the Bills within eight, losing 40-32. Taylor had his best fantasy game of the season, piling up 25.98 fantasy points. Expect him to have to throw the ball Monday night in similar circumstances on the road. There’s monstrous upside with Taylor.

Matt Ryan vs. Colts: Ryan is one of those quarterbacks it’s hard to get excited about, but he’s super consistent, having thrown for at least 250 yards in 16 consecutive games dating back to last season. The problem this season is Ryan hasn’t thrown for more than two touchdowns in a single game and tossed seven picks, while only topping 300 yards twice. If anything, he’s been consistently average. Week 11 presents a chance to get back on track after losing 3-of-4 prior to the bye week. The Colts don’t rush the passer well and have allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. Ryan gets this unit at home with a fully-healthy receiving corps. Leonard Hankerson (hamstring) is expected back, and Ryan has come out and said having HankTime in the lineup opens up a lot of things for the offense. Taking defensive pressure off Julio Jones is No. 1. Jones, himself, got a chance to rest during the bye after heavy workloads. Fantasy’s QB23 in points per game, Ryan is a top-12 option this week.

Sits

Kirk Cousins at Panthers: Cousins is coming off the best passing game of his career after torching the Saints’ league-worst secondary for 324 yards and four touchdowns on 25 attempts (12.96 YPA). He was the straw that broke Saints DC Rob Ryan’s back, getting him fired the next day. But Cousins has had numerous strong passing days in the past only to follow them up with duds. Multiple duds. Heading out onto the road against the 9-0 Panthers and their second-ranked pass defense — by Pro Football Focus — isn’t the spot to use Cousins. Carolina leads the league in interceptions. Those that picked up and streamed Cousins last week can safely bench him or set him back free to the waiver wire, though Cousins will again be in play Week 12 at home against a Giants team that has allowed the third-most fantasy points to quarterbacks.

Ryan Tannehill vs. Cowboys: The Cowboys’ defense isn’t one to fear by any means, but the way Dallas’ offense plays, it’s hard to feel comfortable with any opposing skill players against this team. The Cowboys play at such a slow tempo offensively that it limits possessions for the other team’s offense. Miami already runs the sixth-fewest plays per game coming into this matchup. Tannehill is the definition of “meh.” He’s only topped 17 fantasy points twice in 2015 and blew the roof off it with two performances of 24-plus points. He’s also been held under 12.5 points four times. Dallas-Miami has the fourth-highest over-under of the week at 47.5 points, but this probably isn’t a game I’ll be looking to have much exposure to on the Dolphins side. The Cowboys have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks. If there’s a place to beat them, it’s on the ground.

Philip Rivers vs. Chiefs: After being fantasy whipping boys for opposing quarterbacks early on this season, the Chiefs’ pass defense has really turned itself around after the benching of CB Jamell Fleming and return from suspension of RCB Sean Smith. Rookie LCB Marcus Peters has held his own despite being targeted heavily by opposing quarterbacks, and the Chiefs have found a stabilizing slot corner in CB/S Ron Parker. Through 10 weeks, Kansas City fields Pro Football Focus’ sixth-ranked pass coverage unit and pairs it with a strong pass rush anchored by OLB Justin Houston. Keenan Allen (kidney) is done for the season, and Malcom Floyd suffered a torn labrum in his shoulder Week 9. Floyd plans to play again this season, but that’s up in the air, and he seems like an extreme long shot for Week 11. Rivers doesn’t have any downfield weapons. Antonio Gates (knee) is running on one leg. Stevie Johnson is merely a chain-mover. Ladarius Green (ankle) is still hurt. The Chiefs are three-point road favorites in a game with a Vegas total of 44 points.

Russell Wilson vs. 49ers: Wilson has seemed to find the bottom of this list numerous times this season. Being drafted as the third quarterback off the board over the summer, he’s fantasy QB21 overall in points per game, behind guys like Alex Smith, Joe Flacco, and Brian Hoyer. Seattle is 32nd in red-zone success, scoring a touchdown just 35 percent of the time. And the Seahawks are 29th in offensive touchdowns scored per game with a 1.7 mark. Marshawn Lynch is a great bet to find pay dirt Sunday, which doesn’t leave much for Wilson, even in a plus-plus matchup. Against the 49ers in Week 7, Wilson completed 18-of-24 passes for 235 yards, one score, and two picks, with just 20 rushing yards. It was Wilson’s lowest fantasy output of the season. Wilson has a safe floor thanks to his rushing ability, but the ceiling has proven to be very low in 2015.

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