NFL draft: Making comparisons of top 2016 prospects to current NFL players
Player comparisons are a very common and popular but quite unscientific draft metric. A since-retired scout once told us, “If you can’t compare a player you’re scouting to someone else, you’re not looking hard enough.”
That’s fair, but to whom might one compare, say, Cam Newton? Coming out of Auburn he appeared to be a nearly impossible comp, and even now he stands as a unique talent to whom others might be compared, but rarely is it a close match.
There are several interesting and tricky comps in the 2016 class. We’ll have more time to further study their work, but we feel we have enough right now — with the college season close to winding down — to give it a shot.
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We’re aiming high with these comps … not all of these players, naturally, will live up to the comparisons we’re making. Consider these to be best-case scenarios, projection-wise.
Here are our best stabs at comparisons to current or recent NFL players for 15 of the top prospects as things stand now in the 2016 NFL draft:
Cal QB Jared Goff
Comp: Teddy Bridgewater
We’ll resist the Aaron Rodgers urge, which others have suggested. Yes, body-wise and athletically speaking, there are similarities. And like Rodgers, who has completely changed his game since coming out of Cal, Goff is a work in progress and a quarterback who can evolve over time with skills that can be molded. So instead, we’ll compare him to Bridgewater even with some subtle differences. Both throwers have good but not great athleticism and arm strength, and both have shown requisite toughness, instincts and touch for the position.
Memphis QB Paxton Lynch
Comp: Carson Palmer
Yes, we’ve resisted the Brock Osweiler or Joe Flacco traps here with Lynch’s 6-7 frame because he doesn’t appear a perfect facsimile of either. Lynch does not possess Flacco’s rare downfield passing ability (yet), and we simply do not have enough information on how Osweiler has progressed in advance of his first NFL start. Instead, we’ll choose Palmer, who was a bit of a late bloomer, development wise, after a few so-so seasons at USC but possessing all the physical tools that allowed him to thrive his final season. Palmer actually was an underrated athlete, too, which is how we view Lynch. Both quarterbacks throw with excellent touch and anticipation but can suffer through cold snaps through the course of games. A big knock on Palmer early in his career was that he needed to quicken his delivery, and Lynch could stand to do the same. We’ll admit: We heard someone make the Palmer comp previously (can’t remember who) and we endorse this.
Ohio State RB Ezekiel Elliott
Comp: Jonathan Stewart
This one was very tough. Parts of Elliott’s game remind us of Le’Veon Bell, but he’s not nearly established yet as the receiver Bell has become. Elliott has vision like Bell and Arian Foster and can put his foot in the ground and burst forward effortlessly, But he’s built a little more like Stewart, who is a criminally underrated runner when healthy. Unfortunately, his career has been slowed by annual injuries — and he still has been very good. Elliott projects to a Day 1 starting back who projects best to a one-cut run game and can develop as a receiver over time. His balance, effort and drive are outstanding and exactly fit the kind of back this cyclical league slowly is seeking more of.
Ole Miss WR Laquon Treadwell
Comp: Alshon Jeffery
We’ve also resisted the Dez Bryant comparisons here, even though many have gone down that road. Instead, we’ll go in a similar vein with Jeffery, who is maybe only a tiny notch below Bryant in terms of in-the-air ball skills. Treadwell has won over evaluators this season coming back from a devastating injury that ended his 2014 season, and he has flashed that same elite playmaking skill — with the potential to get even better in the NFL. Both Jeffery and Treadwell win with physicality, strong hands and competitiveness; neither is a blazer, but neither really need to be, either. We like this comp.
Notre Dame OT Ronnie Stanley
Comp: Eugene Monroe
The redshirt junior is a near-lock to come out, and he certainly looks the part. He’s well put together at nearly 6-6 and 315 pounds, moves well for his size, could even add bulk to his frame and appears to be a starting left tackle out of the chute. Monroe projected similarly coming out of Virginia in 2009 and has been an upper-echelon tackle in this league, even if he hasn’t played his best football these past two seasons. Both players might lack a little bit of grit and nastiness if you were to ask an old-school OL coach, but even that might be a nitpick. Is Stanley a transcendent prospect? We’re not able to say that, just as Monroe has proven to be a very good but hardly elite left tackle.
Ole Miss OT Laremy Tunsil
Comp: Joe Staley
Offensive linemen are tricky to compare tit for tat, and because there have been so many high busts in recent seasons near the top of the draft, we have to be careful how high we set the bar — there only are truly a handful of elite tackles playing today. Is Tunsil the top-five pick he’s touted to be? In his first game back from a seven-game suspension, he played like one against an elite prospect — Texas A&M DE Myles Garrett — and has been fine, not great, since then. We thought about a comparison to Trent Williams, but Tunsil just isn’t as bulky or long-armed. Staley is a nice comp: an aggressive player who, outside a few forgettable games the past few seasons, has graded out as one of the five or six most dependable left tackles in the game. Both play with good athleticism, balance and a defensive mentality.
Ole Miss DL Robert Nkemdiche
Comp: Sheldon Richardson
Nkemdiche was a former five-start recruit with massive upside who has really blossomed this season, even after a concussion against Memphis derailed his season a bit. He can play multiple techniques, fit in multiple fronts, is gifted enough to be an offensive specialist (lead blocker in short yardage, e.g.) and has the penetration ability to be a top-10 pick. Doesn’t that read like Richardson? Both have similar frames in the 6-3 range at around 290 pounds. Both can be prone to mini-disappearing acts in games, but each can take over a game at a moment’s notice. We think they project similarly.
UCLA DT Kenny Clark
Comp: Sen’Derrick Marks
It’s been fun watching the high-motor Clark work his way into the backfield consistently despite a slew of injuries on the Bruins’ defense. He can play almost any spot along the line and will outwork his opponents, fighting through double teams with effort and a quick first step. Marks came into the league on a bit of a low note, coming out early after ankle injuries slowed him his final season at Auburn. He needed to add a little strength coming into the league, and Clark could stand to do the same, although he appears to be a little more developed despite good but not elite size. We could be talked into other comps here — anyone have a good one they like?
Clemson DE Shaq Lawson
Comp: Ezekiel Ansah
One of the breakout stars in college football, Lawson has followed some big footsteps after Vic Beasley tore up the ACC a year ago and lifted his game after a good redshirt sophomore season in 2014. Lawson is a different breed of end, not as rangy or explosive as Beasley but possessing strength (lower and upper body), run-stopping ability and good quickness on the edge. Turn on Lawson’s effort against a slightly banged up Stanley and you’ll see some exciting tape that has impressed NFL scouts. Ansah projected similarly but truly came out of nowhere; although he doesn’t get respect, he has played well on a decimated Lions front and wins in the game kind of way as Lawson.
UCLA LB Myles Jack
Comp: Derrick Johnson
It has been 10 years since Johnson left Texas, and people might forget what a superior athlete he was coming out for the draft. Johnson has adapted so well because he has honed his instincts so well and shown toughness bouncing back from injury. Jack faces the same challenge now, coming off a torn ACL, and though he might be even more of a special athletic specimen then Johnson, he lacks the same length and height. It’s not a perfect comp, but both players have three-down ability as great pass defenders for the position.
Notre Dame LB Jaylon Smith
Comp: NaVorro Bowman
This one is tricky because Smith could project inside or outside, depending on the defensive scheme he’s added to, in the NFL. Bowman came out a year early and took a year to develop into one of the league’s best 3-4 inside ‘backers, although he easily could have fit in as an off-the-ball 4-3 outside linebacker. Smith might get stuck on blocks too easily at times and isn’t elite in coverage but has all the natural instincts and closing speed you’re looking for. They project similarly, we think.
USC LB-S Su’a Cravens
Comp: Thomas Davis
Sort of obvious, but sort of not. Davis came out of Georgia as a big safety who projected to be an undersized NFL linebacker. It worked out OK. I know it’s common to compare Cravens to former Trojans safety Troy Polamalu, but we can’t reasonably compare — similar to Newton — Polamalu to anyone. We think Cravens will transform into a “Will” linebacker in a 4-3 system and, like Davis, take a year to really acclimate before his elite playmaking skills emerge.
Florida CB Vernon Hargreaves
Comp: Josh Norman
Let us clarify: Norman was a highly confident but slightly slower-to-develop prospect and a fifth-round pick. Hargreaves projects to be a first-rounder, and a high one at that, and was a blue-chip prospect coming out of high school. If you take the level at which Norman has played since midseason last year, that’s the projection for where Hargreaves can reach. Both are slight of frame but extremely confident with elite ball skills and coverage ability. They each want to face the best of the best, and it shows in the tape.
Florida State CB-S Jalen Ramsey
Comp: Patrick Peterson
Too easy, right? Both are long-levered, fluid, elite athletes with coverage ability and the chops to impact special teams and take back turnovers a long way. Peterson might just be, if we’re splitting hairs, just a tad more special athletically. But Ramsey might be an even better run defender. Peterson and Ramsey just feel like a natural pairing, skill-wise.
Clemson CB Mackensie Alexander
Comp: Stephon Gilmore
Although Alexander is a bit banged up with a knee injury, he has been a recent riser on an excellent Tigers defense and firmly has put himself in the first-round discussion with his play this season if the redshirt sophomore chooses to come out early. Although he has no interceptions this season, he also hasn’t allowed a touchdown catch on his watch and no reception longer than 23 yards, according to Pro Football Focus’ college analytics. Watch the job he did on Notre Dame’s Will Fuller and you should come away impressed. He might not be an elite ballhawk or as tall as Gilmore, but Alexander has great confidence to combat top wideouts and the short-area quickness to flip his hips to thrive.
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Eric Edholm is a writer for Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @Eric_Edholm
