Debating the AL MVP: Josh Donaldson vs. Mike Trout

It’s time for baseball to hand out some MVP awards, which coincides with the annual tradition of debating just how good of a player Mike Trout is. This year, like years before it, features a storyline we know well: Is Mike Trout actually better than the MVP favorite getting lauded for his collection of tradition-friendly stats?

The answer to that, friends, depends on who you ask, how they parse the data and whether they scowl when they hear about Wins Above Replacement. As you can already tell, the big debate for the big award is in the American League where super run-producing Toronto Blue Jays third baseman Josh Donaldson is the favorite and Trout, the uber-talented Los Angeles Angels outfielder, is right there with him.

Lorenzo Cain of the Kansas City Royals is also a finalist and we applaud him for that. But he ain’t finishing in the top two. That’s as guaranteed as Bryce Harper winning the award in the NL, where he towered over everyone else no matter what numbers you value. If you like, you can read our full rundown of all the MVP finalists and the cases for and against each player.

Right now, though, we’re digging into the Donaldson-Trout debate. The Stew’s Mike Oz and Chris Cwik fall on opposite sides of this one (that’s happened a lot this week), so they’re settling it with a good ol’ back-and-forth argument. We’ll start with a 75-word case for Donaldson:

Mike Oz: If you’re looking for a tried-and-true MVP case, it’s Josh Donaldson. First the numbers: 123 RBIs (first in the AL), 41 homers (third), 122 runs (tops in MLB), .939 OPS (third in AL) and a very good .297 batting average for a power hitter. Then the context of those numbers: He joined the Blue Jays and was their missing piece offensively, helping them to 93 wins and the AL East title. The value seems obvious.

Chris Cwik: I’m really looking forward to another year where Mike Trout gets robbed. I’m really excited about it and not mad at all.

Oz: Well, you certainly sound like a malcontent. Do tell us, Mr. Cwik, why you think Trout would be getting “robbed.”

Cwik: Mike Trout was better than Josh Donaldson, albeit barely, in a number of categories. Trout had a better batting average, higher on-base percentage and even bested the monstrous Donaldson is slugging percentage. They hit the same amount of home runs, and Trout finished with a slightly higher fWAR. The areas where Donaldson bests Trout (RBI and runs) are a context of Donaldson playing in the outrageous Blue Jays offense. Give Trout the dang award now!

Oz: So runs and RBIs are bad now too? Come on, man. I’m willing to concede that there are dumb stats that baseball holds dear (hi, pitcher wins), but I feel like people who want to tear apart Donaldson’s MVP case because RBIs aren’t purely an individual stat are just trying too hard. If you have to explain away why Donaldson did so well at driving in runs — you know, the things that *win* baseball games — then we’re distilling things too much.

Cwik: I don’t like the idea that we’re punishing Trout because his teammates weren’t as good at getting on base. If Trout were the two-hitter for the Blue Jays, I can confidently say he would have driven in more runs. The opposite is true if Donaldson were on the Angels. Context matters here. I don’t like the idea that Donaldson’s big edge is in a stat where his teammates played a huge role. You could have probably driven in 70 runs if you hit second on the Blue Jays. That’s how good their offense was.

Oz: I applaud your belief in me. I just don’t like dealing in hypotheticals like this, be they about me or the would-be MVPs. The fact of the matter is that Donaldson does play for the Blue Jays, he did come up with runners on base and he did drive those runners in. That matters. That’s how you win games. So I’m going to endorse that instead of guesses about how much better Trout could have been in a different scenario. I might entertain your thinking if Donaldson lagged tremendously in every other category — say, if Trout hit 10 more homers or if Donaldson hit .255. But that’s not the case. Their numbers, as you’ve said, are pretty close. Even WAR, which loves Trout, only gives him a 0.3 edge over Donaldson.

Cwik: I just hate the idea that Donaldson’s case depends on context-dependent numbers. And I know it sounds like I’m killing Donaldson here, but I’m really not. He can’t help it if the Blue Jays are constantly getting on base or driving him in. But I think if you look at the stats a batter can directly control, like average, on-base, home runs, etc., Trout leads in every one of those categories. He was slightly better than Donaldson at everything except driving in runs and scoring runs because he didn’t play on a historically great offense. I don’t think Donaldson is a bad choice, and I admit it’s close, but I hate that his case comes down to 123 RBIZZZZZZZZZZ!!!!! Is it 1999?

Oz: You throw that shade on tradition, Chris! It’s obvious we’re not going to change each other’s minds here (though, I’d be willing to bet you a good chunk of money that the writers’ vote will side with me). So I have a different question: Would this be happening if we weren’t talking about Trout? If the other player was, say, Michael Brantley would you be going to such lengths to elevate him over Donaldson? I don’t ask this to make you the bad guy. It just seems like no matter how much we appreciate Trout — and yes, he’s great, the best player in the game right now — it’s never enough for the unquenched group of analysts who would live to defend him against any player who would dare have an MVP case.

Cwik: C’mon, man. I don’t care that it’s Trout. I want the best player in the league to win the MVP. It just so happens that Trout is, once again, that guy. So, yeah, I would support Brantley or Jose Abreu or even Delmon Young if they had put up the same stat line. In the end, I don’t think it really matters, because I’m going to guess Donaldson will win. I think most of the voters have evolved past the RBI argument, but I think the narrative surrounding Donaldson will push him ahead. I don’t think Donaldson is a bad choice, but he’s not the best choice. Sadly, Trout will be snubbed again.

Oz: And my prediction is there will be no shortage of people on Twitter crying about it.

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Mike Oz is the editor of Big League Stew on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @MikeOz

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