Week 11 Fantasy Lames: ‘Red Ryder’ version of Dalton to reappear in ‘Zona
Each week the Noise highlights 10 somewhat un-obvious names whom he believes are destined to implode leave egg on his face. To qualify, each player must be started in at least 50 percent of Yahoo leagues. Speaking as an accountability advocate, I will post results, whether genius or moronic, the following week using the scoring system shown here (Thresholds – QB: 18 fpts, RB: 13 fpts, WR: 11 fpts, TE: 10 fpts). If you’re a member of TEAM HUEVOS, reveal your Week 11 Lames in the comments section below.
See Also: Week 11 Fantasy Flames
Andy Dalton, Cin, QB (75 percent started, $35 in Yahoo DFS)
Matchup: at Ari
A jaw-displacing Holly Holm kick to the dome. That’s what Dalton owners suffered in his despicable showing last week against Houston. After supposedly burying the prime-time demons against Cleveland earlier this season, the agents of fantasy destruction resurfaced on Monday Night Football. In a contest that seemingly set the game back decades, the Red Rifle was indeed transformed into a Red Ryder (Well-played, Mr. Watt) as he accounted for an ‘earth-shattering’ 197 yards with zero touchdowns and a pick. Fingers were deservingly pointed at Tyler Eifert, who did his best Mike Evans impersonation, but the offense, collectively, was largely discombobulated. With that forgettable performance, Dalton’s career average in 12 nighttime affairs reads like a passage from a Stephen King novel – 5.8 ypa, 58.0 cmp%, 201.0 ypg, 15:16 TD:TO split. Under the lights yet again, this time in Glendale, his evening totals could drag down further. Though Carolina is in the conversation, Arizona boasts the best top-to-bottom defense in the NFC. Stout up front and unforgiving in coverage, the Cardinals have repeatedly stymied the opposition. On the year, they’ve surrendered just 6.47 yards per attempt, 233.6 passing yards and 1.6 passing touchdowns per game. Of all people, Josh McCown is the only signal caller to score 20 fantasy points against them. Patrick Peterson (48.6 catch%, 56.5 QB rating allowed) is sure to throw a bucket of ice on the Heatmeiser. I’ll take Blake Bortles (vs. Ten), Matthew Stafford (vs. Oak) and Ryan Fitzpatrick (at Hou) over him.
Fearless Forecast: 227 passing yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception, 11 rushing yards, 13.2 fantasy points
Doug Martin, TB, RB (71 percent started, $25)
Matchup: at Phi
Muscle Hamster. Dougernaut. Swole Mongoose. Whack-a-mole. Of Martin’s former, current or proposed nicknames, the last one applies most. Earlier this season, the former Pro Bowl selection looked rejuvenated. His renewed wiggle, short-field burst and plow-through power were reminiscent of the RB that trucked Oakland in 2012. Through Week 7, he was the sixth-most valuable rusher in the virtual game averaging 5.0 yards per carry and 113.3 total yards per game. He also scored four touchdowns. But since then, the Buc has fallen on his sword. His 7.5 fantasy points per game in standard formats ranks outside the RB top-25. Unfavorable game flows and Charles Sims’ growing presence are responsible for the sharp downturn. Though moving in the wrong direction, Martin is netting just over 65 percent of his yards after initial contact, but his 56.1 snap percentage over the past three weeks is a cause for pause. So is Martin’s Week 11 matchup. Even down run stalwart Kiko Alonso, Philly has contained the run beautifully. RBs have tallied a mere 3.89 yards per carry and one rushing touchdown against it. Run stuffers Bennie Logan, Jordan Hicks and Brandon Graham have accounted for 67 stops. In nine games only Lamar Miller and Mike Tolbert scored 13 or more fantasy points versus the Eagles. If a competitive battle, Martin should rack 15-18 touches, but given the ironclad opponent he’s more RB2/FLEX material this week.
Fearless Forecast: 17 attempts, 66 rushing yards, 3 receptions, 20 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 10.1 fantasy points
Justin Forsett, Bal, RB (86 percent started, $25)
Matchup: vs. StL
Forsett’s fantasy value is presumably hiking Peru’s Inca Trail to Machu Picchu. The once cherished three-down rusher has fallen off the grid, failing to deliver appreciable numbers in what was supposed to be a statistically friendly Marc Trestman system. Sifting through the data, he’s actually shown considerable improvement in missed tackle (’14: 11.6, ’15: 17.0) and yards after contact percentage (’14: 42.9, ’15: 52.5) compared to his breakout 2014. So what’s his deal? Baltimore’s insufferable defense, underachieving offensive line and the coaching staff’s support of Buck Allen are all to blame. Point blank, Forsett is doing as much as he can with the opportunities presented. However, different from last year, those situations aren’t as favorable. Don’t expect a sudden change this week. St. Louis, licking its wounds after Chicago drove daggers into it via the screen game last week, enters Sunday bloodied. Over the past two weeks, the Rams have yielded 396 combined yards and three touchdowns to RBs. Still, this is a unit equipped with a premier hole plunger, Aaron Donald, and a number of playmakers at LB. Unless the Ravens line turns back the clock, another vanilla afternoon is in store for Forsett.
Fearless Forecast: 14 attempts, 49 rushing yards, 4 receptions, 15 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 8.4 fantasy points
Randall Cobb, GB, WR (96 percent started, $27)
Matchup: at Min
Inexplicably, Green Bay’s alleged high-powered offense has fallen into a deep coma. Aaron Rodgers admits he’s “trying to do too much,” but the dirty pockets he’s dealt (36.8 pressure% in last five) with explains why his decision-making hasn’t been sharp. The often deplorable play of his wideouts also hasn’t helped. Whether it’s press coverage, physical limitations or sloppy routes, Packer receivers, Cobb included, have failed miserably to gain consistent separation. No shock, their box score results have been wildly erratic. Since Week 4, the slot man has crossed the chalk with great infrequency (once) and totaled 25 receptions for 284 yards. His subsequent 5.9 fantasy points per game average ranks behind such jersey sellers as Dwayne Harris, Jamison Crowder and Tedd Ginn. Don’t bet on the high draft pick to immediately regain owner confidence. Captain Munnerlyn has been an unsung hero in Minnesota’s defensive backfield. When manning the slot, he’s allowed the second-lowest QB rating against his assignments (66.6). Thrown at 43 times, he’s also not conceded a touchdown. Similar to how Tavon Austin, Stevie Johnson and Golden Tate were ‘welcomed’ by Munnerlyn, Cobb again falls outside the WR top-20. This week, Davante Adams will be the most valued Green Bay WR.
Fearless Forecast: 5 receptions, 59 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 8.4 fantasy points
[Week 11 rankings: Quarterback | Running Back | Receiver | Tight End | Flex | All Positions]
Alshon Jeffery, Chi, WR (92 percent started, $29)
Matchup: vs. Den
When healthy and firing on all cylinders, Jeffery has resembled the ferocious, man-eating Bear most believed he would be. Other times, however, he’s looked like a circus act riding a flat-tired bike. Last week in St. Louis, he was certainly the latter. Handicapped by a tender groin, he played just 35-of-65 snaps and caught only three passes for 23 yards. John Fox described his efforts “gutsy,” an indication of how limited he really was. Presumably nowhere close to 100 percent, the hindered wideout isn’t a recommended option in any format. His condition aside, the matchup is extremely unfavorable. Though Denver’s defense has occasionally struggled containing the run and covering the short-field, it’s still the stingiest versus the pass. On the year, WRs are performing 47.9 percent below the league average against it. Mike Wallace is the lone WR to score a TD versus the Broncos, which, when considering the player, seems miraculous. Perusing peripheral stats, corners Aqib Talib, back off his one-game suspension, and Chris Harris have allowed a combined 57.6 QB rating to their assignments. Additionally, safeties Darian Stewart and T.J. Ward have kept tops sealed. They’ve given up a league-low 23 pass plays beyond 20-yards. Jay Cutler is definitely ‘smokin,” but put it all together and Jeffery is a receiver to avoid.
Fearless Forecast: 4 receptions, 55 receiving yards, 0 touchdowns, 7.5 fantasy points
Each week one fortunate guest prognosticator will have a chance to silence the Noise. Following the rules stated above, participants are asked to submit their “Flames” (1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 D/ST) by midnight PT Tuesdays via Twitter @YahooNoise. How large are your stones?
Reader Record: 38-32
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