The 10 best over and under picks for Week 12 in college football – CBSSports.com
A 4-6 week last week continues a minor slide and dropped me to 52-58 on the season, but it’s time to get hot for the close of the year and go into bowl season with some momentum.
This week I have six unders and four overs for your perusal. Fade me as you will.
Mississippi State at Arkansas UNDER 57: Mississippi State’s likely beat up following the Alabama game, where the offense got worn out by the Tide defense. Arkansas has been in some high-scoring games recently, but one was against an Ole Miss team that plays at a fast tempo (39th in the country in adjusted pace) and the other was a 4OT game with Auburn.
Both of these teams are near the bottom of the nation in adjusted pace of play (Miss. St 97th, Arkansas 96th), so I expect both to be happy to grind this one and for the pace alone to hold this under the total.
Tennessee at Missouri UNDER 42.5: Missouri’s offense exploded for 20 points in an extremely emotional win over BYU on Saturday. The Tigers had scored 25 combined points in the four games prior.
Meanwhile, Tennessee could only muster 24 at home against North Texas, which is one of the nation’s worst FBS teams.
If Missouri, 119th in adjusted pace, has its way, this will be played at a snails pace.
I think Missouri’s defense will handle the Vols pretty well and limit them to field goals, while the Tigers offense regresses a bit from last week in slugfest that comes in pretty comfortably under the number.
LSU at Ole Miss UNDER 56: I’m convinced LSU’s real offensive line was kidnapped in Tuscaloosa before the Alabama game and the group we’ve seen the last two weeks is a group of imposters.
The running game that was so dominant is now almost non-existent. Ole Miss’ defense has been a Jekyll and Hyde group, but if LSU doesn’t make some adjustments it could be another long day for the Tigers.
As for the Ole Miss offense, it looked vastly improved against Arkansas in a shootout, but prior to that game the unit was struggling to put up more than 27 points in a game. I think this finishes in the high-40s/low-50s and just slides under the number here.
Miami (OH) at UMass UNDER 54: UMass unders have been the only consistent thing for me in this column. They are my safe haven and I’m going back to the well this week against a RedHawks team that played a surprisingly high-scoring game against Akron last week.
We’ll see if the Minutemen keep cashing unders, but I’m going down with the ship no matter what.
Purdue at Iowa UNDER 57.5: Iowa’s defense has looked vulnerable the last two weeks, but luckily for the Hawkeyes, the Boilermakers’ offense is limping in off of back-to-back 14-point performances.
I like Iowa’s defense to find itself again and hold Purdue to 14 or fewer. As for Iowa, they should be able to run it on Purdue, but I think they’ll be up by enough in the 4th that they pedal off and coast to the finish line to preserve the under.
Michigan at Penn State UNDER 42.5: Indiana had success against Michigan, I know. Indiana also likes to push the tempo and gassed the Michigan front seven. Penn State is 128th in the country in pace — that’s last for those that forget how many FBS teams there are.
The combination of a really slow offense against an angry Wolverines defense makes me pretty confident that the Nittany Lions will get held to a very low point total. A comfortable under is coming in Happy Valley.
Georgia Tech at Miami (FL) OVER 56.5: I just don’t trust either of these defenses. Both are liable to give up 30-plus at any time, and nothing I’ve seen from the Canes makes me trust them to be disciplined enough to maintain gap contain throughout a game against the Jackets.
Brad Kaaya and the Canes’ passing game is looking to find its rhythm, and I have a hunch they find success against the Bees this week.
Air Force at Boise State OVER 56.5: Air Force let me down against Army so I put them on a one-week over suspension last week — unfortunately in a game that went over — but against a Boise team that gave up 31 to New Mexico I’m hopping back on.
This is a Friday night spectacular on the Smurf Turf in Boise, and I foresee a shootout in the cold.
Idaho at Auburn OVER 61.5: Auburn’s offense is due for a big game, right? Gus is feeling a little heat under his seat right now so he’s not going to have much mercy on the Vandals.
As for Idaho, this is the nation’s 122nd ranked scoring defense. If the Tigers were ever going to get it right and hang a 50-spot on someone, it’s here. Auburn wants to get the fans a little excited heading into the Iron Bowl and takes out some frustration against the Vandals.
Louisiana Tech at UTEP OVER 57: Louisiana Tech’s offense is super fun with Jeff Driskel just slinging the pill all over the field. UTEP is 113th in scoring defense. The Bulldogs hang six or seven touchdowns on the Miners and this cruises over.
Can LSU’s offense get it together against Ole Miss, or will it be another Tigers under? (USATSI)This entry passed through the Full-Text RSS service – if this is your content and you’re reading it on someone else’s site, please read the FAQ at fivefilters.org/content-only/faq.php#publishers.
