Debating the NL Cy Young: Jake Arrieta vs. Zack Greinke

As MLB awards week continues, we’ve arrived as one of the tightest races yet: Who wins the NL Cy Young? You know it’s a great class of finalists when Clayton Kershaw’s 301 strikeouts and 2.13 ERA will most likely leave him in third place.

The headline matchup here: Zack Greinke vs. Jake Arrieta. It’s Greinke, who hardly let Los Angeles Dodgers’ opponents score this year against Arrieta, whose second half for the Chicago Cubs was something at which to marvel. There’s no bad choice here — even where Kershaw is concerned — but Greinke and Arrieta is very, very close.

The AL Cy Young is a little more clear: Dallas Keuchel is the favorite and even though David Price had a very strong season too, Keuchel appears to have this one locked down. You can read our breakdowns of all six finalists, if you want the case for and against each player.

This post here, this is a debate. The Stew’s Mike Oz and Chris Cwik are on opposing sides of the NL Cy Young, so we figured this was the best way to settle it. We start with a 75-word statement (exactly 75 words!) in support of Arrieta:

Chris Cwik: Jake Arrieta is the perfect Cy Young candidate for every baseball fan. Are you a traditionalist who likes wins and ERA? Well, Arrieta led baseball with 22 wins and finished second with a 1.77 ERA. Do you love advanced stats? Arrieta’s 7.3 fWAR was second among all pitchers, as was his 2.35 FIP. Are you type who just wants dominance? Arrieta tossed a no-hitter this season and notched 236 strikeouts. He checks every single box.

Mike Oz: Hi, Chris, I’m a baseball fan who wants the NL pitcher with the best ERA to win the Cy Young. Might you know who that is?

Cwik: No matter what response I give here, I’m assuming you’re just going to tell me anyway.

Oz: Well, yes. A few times, in fact. You got your 75 words, so here are mine: Zack Greinke was so good in 2015 that his ERA was never higher than 1.97. Zack Greinke was so good that he made Kershaw look like a slacker at times. Zack Greinke was so good that he gave up four earned runs total in May — then did it again in July. This is how good Greinke was: a minuscule 1.66 ERA in 222.2 innings with a 19-3 record and 200 strikeouts. All hail, Cy Greinke.

Cwik: That’s great. I mean that sincerely. It’s nearly impossible to pick apart Greinke’s numbers. That said, I can still pump up Arrieta. You know those crazy May and July numbers you cited for Greinke? Well, Arrieta went 11-0 with a 0.41 ERA over his final 12 starts of the season. He gave up just four earned runs over that period and held opposing hitters to a .136 average. Those aren’t typos! He put up historic numbers down the stretch.

Oz: So you’re saying that Arrieta was as good as Greinke that time he didn’t allow an earned run in six straight starts from June 18-July 9? He went 45 2/3 innings without giving up a run. That’s remarkable.

Cwik: We could be here all day if we’re going to drop ridiculous facts. The truth is, this is possibly one of the tightest award races ever. For me, there are a few tiny edges that make me lean Arrieta. He pitched slightly more innings, but he also went deeper into games. Arrieta had four complete games on the year. Greinke had one. On top of that, I like dominance. Arrieta had 36 more strikeouts. Those make up for the ERA difference in my mind. You are still wrong and bad, obviously, but I’ll say we are really splitting hairs here.

Oz: Indeed, I can’t be too upset if Arrieta wins. They’re both worthy, but since we’re talking differences here, I’ll point out my big one: While it’s true Arrieta had more complete games, he also had three games where he didn’t finish six innings. Greinke pitched at least six innings every single time he started this season. I like the consistency with Greinke. He was good from his first start to his last. In context, that was especially important for the Dodgers, who had a lot of pitching problems this season. Brandon McCarthy and Hyun-Jin Ryu missed most of the season. Their starters were inconsistent. But Greinke was so damn dependable it brought stability to what could have been chaos.

Cwik: We haven’t even talked about Kershaw. He actually led all pitchers with an 8.6 fWAR. I know WAR is a touchy thing, and I’m not sure I would vote for Kershaw, but I hate that there’s a narrative that he somehow had a down year. That’s crazy talk. Still, while his numbers are awesome (301 strikeouts!), he has no shot at winning the award, right?

Oz: It sure doesn’t feel like it. Kershaw was good and the strikeouts are nice, but he just feels like an also-ran in the 2015 Cy Young hype machine. If voters are going to pick a Dodgers pitcher, they’re going to pick Greinke. Because, as I’ve established, he is the correct choice.

Cwik: You’re wrong (again), but I honestly have no idea what the voters will do. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Arrieta/Greinke debate came down to one measly vote. That’s how nutty this whole thing is going to be.

Oz: Hey, as long as that vote’s for Greinke, we’re good.

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