The Worksheet: The Worksheet: Week 11

We’ve made it to the final week with teams on bye and there’s some firepower that has to find your bench in Week 11 with the Steelers, Saints, Giants and then the Browns off this week. Here’s the disclaimer that I encourage that you use the game by game tables and data points in conjunction with your own information and thought process rather than searching out your own players in the individual player diagnosis and turning that section into a linear start/sit guide. With that out of the way, let’s hit all of the Week 11 games in a PPR fashion….

Tennessee vs. Jacksonville

• Allen Hurns has caught a touchdown now in seven consecutive games. The last player to do that was Wes Welker over 2012 and into 2013 with Patriots and Broncos.
• Allen Robinson leads the league in passing targets on throws 15 or more yards downfield with 42 and Hurns ranks 9th with 26.
• Marqise Lee returned last week and played 24 snaps and had 11.1 percent of the team targets.
• Tennessee has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 72 percent of their passes over the past three weeks (31st).
• Blake Bortles has completed just 55.3 percent of his passes this season, lowest of all quarterbacks to start every game.
• The Titans have four or more touchdowns in three games (Saints, Bucs and Colts), but just seven touchdowns total in their other six games.
• Jacksonville has allowed 15 or more points to eight straight quarterbacks who include Matt Hasselbeck, E.J. Manuel and Jameis Winston.
• The Jaguars are allowing a league low 3.3 yards rushing per attempt.

Trust: Allen Robinson (five straight weeks as a top-18 receiver, seeing 10.6 targets per week since Week 1)

Bust: Antonio Andrews (the usage and effectiveness just aren’t consistent), Julius Thomas (has one week above TE28 since returning), Jacksonville running game (T.J. Yeldon sounds doubtful to begin with, so even if he’s active I’m not feeling strongly, Denard Robinson and Toby Gerhart splitting reps isn’t endearing either)

Reasonable Return: Blake Bortles (his bottom lines have been highly usable, but Thursday night and with the Titans allowing just three top-10 quarterbacks on the season have me expecting a high QB2 performance), Allen Hurns (his targets have finally been steadily high, but being knicked up with multiple injuries on a short week keeps his ceiling in question), Marcus Mariota (limited weaponry doesn’t have me excited, but the Jags have provided a safe floor of points for opposing quarterbacks), Delanie Walker (he’s the only piece of this offense you feel good about and it’s mostly for his floor), Dorial Green-Beckham (his snaps keep rising with inconsistent target levels, but this is a matchup where he can get over with available targets), Dexter McCluster (can disappear in an instant, but the Titans should struggle to run inside)

St. Louis vs. Baltimore

• Since Week 5, the Rams rank 31st in scoring rate per drive (25.8 percent) and 30th in touchdown rate (12.1 percent) per possession.
• The Rams run 66.7 percent of the time on first down, highest rate in the league. League average is 50.2 percent.
• Baltimore has trailed for 68.9 percent of their offensive plays this season, the second highest total in the league.
• Joe Flacco is on pace for 656 pass attempts this season. His career high is 614 back in 2013.
• Flacco is averaging 276.9 passing yards per game, his career high 249.1 yards set last season.
• The Rams have allowed multiple touchdown passes in just two games this season, tied with Denver for the fewest in the league.
• In the two games now without Steve Smith, Kamar Aiken has 25.7 percent and 31.1 percent of the team targets.
• Justin Forsett has just three rushing attempts inside the 5-yard line this season, the same amount as Flacco.

Trust: Todd Gurley (even in a tough paper draw, he is the offense and has had back to back top-12 weeks against poor paper matchups)

Bust: Justin Forsett (you’re getting 15 touches, but the Ravens have abandoned running the ball despite playing tight games and Forsett has not been effective through the air to compensate), Chris Givens (his touchdown covered the fact that he had just 15.6 percent of the team targets, which is right were Aiken was beforehand), Case Keenum (I can see where you can paint a picture of selling this matchup as promising, but we weren’t going to be on Foles either)

Reasonable Return: Joe Flacco (the Rams play with a stone age pace, so he’ll need to be efficient with his opportunities and hit a big play or two like Jay Cutler like week), Kamar Aiken (he’s the one with the target spike and the floor to latch onto), Crockett Gillmore (his target level remains minuscule, but if he can find usage, the Rams have allowed five or more receptions to six different tight ends)

Washington vs. Carolina

• Despite missing two games, Jordan Reed‘s 15 targets in the red zone trail only Rob Gronkowski (16) for all tight ends.
• Since DeSean Jackson returned, Reed has 16.9 percent of the team targets. He had 24.4 percent prior.
• Matt Jones‘ 37.1 percent snap share was his lowest total for a game since Week 5.
• Carolina has faced the fourth most passes attempts this season, but ranks first in passing points allowed in per attempt (.284) and first in adjusted yards per attempt (4.9 yards) per throw.
• Washington is allowing 5.0 yards per attempt (31st). Carolina leads the league in rushing attempts per game (33.7 attempts).
• Cam Newton has 72.6 rushing points on the season. The next highest quarterback (Tyrod Taylor) has 36.3 points.
• Jonathan Stewart has seven games with 15 or more rushing attempts, tied with Chris Ivory for the second most in the league behind Adrian Peterson‘s eight.
• Carolina has trailed for just 22.3 percent of their offensive plays, the second lowest total in the league.
• Panthers rushing attempts inside of the 5-yard line: Cam Newton (8), Stewart (8), Mike Tolbert (4).

Trust: Cam Newton (the game script should be a Panther’s special in this one and Washington did lose contain on Ryan Fitzpatrick a few times in Week 6)

Bust: All Washington players outside of Jordan Reed (back to business with the Washington offense here as Carolina is far from New Orleans)

Reasonable Return: Jordan Reed (he’s covered some low volume with scores, but is still their primary red zone threat and with the way Carolina defends wide receivers, will have to be leaned on if Washington is going to have success), Jonathan Stewart (you’re basically getting 8-15 points weekly depending on if he scores or not)

Denver vs. Chicago

• While dealing with injury, Alshon Jeffery played just 53.8 percent of the snaps last week, his lowest total on the season.
• Denver has allowed just two top-24 scoring receivers on the season.
• Jeremy Langford is the first rookie running back to have back to back games with 70 rushing and receiving yards since Mewelde Moore in 2004.
• The Bears are the only team other than Carolina to have at least 25 rushing attempts in every game this season.
• Denver has allowed just 88.2 passing points on the season, the only team still in double digits.
• Demaryius Thomas has converted just six of his past 47 red zone targets into touchdowns since the start of last season.
• 31 players have more red zone touchdowns over that span and only Antonio Brown has matched Thomas’ target total.
• Denver has rushed for fewer than 70 yards as a team six times this season, matching Detroit for the fewest in the league.

Bust: Alshon Jeffery (the target potential is here if healthy to create a floor, but you’ll be happy to get out of here with anything close to upper single digit scoring), Emmanuel Sanders (dealing with a plethora of ailments and potential that Osweiler keys in on Thomas), Brock Osweiler (he can’t really be worse than Peyton for fantasy, but Chicago has only allowed two top-12 scoring quarterbacks), Denver running game (you’re already staying away, but if considering it only Adrian Peterson has rushed for 75 yards against Chicago over their past six games), Martellus Bennett (five or fewer targets in tow of the past three games and has hit 60 receiving yards just once all season), Zach Miller (two of his three scores the past two weeks had a shade of fluky and Denver has allowed just one tight end to finish above TE12 this season)

Reasonable Return: Jay Cutler (Cutler has 17 or more points in every start since returning Week 4 and has been agnostic to who is playing at his skill positions and matchups), Bears Backfield (if Forte misses again, bump up Langford as trustworthy. Langford has been too good to put back in the bottle, especially if Forte is still limited. Denver has allowed back to back top-15 backs and a top-20 back in five of their past six games due to reception levels, something both backs do well but if both are active, a ceiling is a lot to ask for out of one), Demaryius Thomas (he’s safe in regards of volume and a floor, but his ceiling has been compromised while consistently being held out of the end zone)

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