NFL Picks Week 11: Panthers, Patriots keep on rolling – NOLA.com
How bad was my week of prognosticating? Let’s just say Rob Ryan coached the Saints defense better than I picked football games.
Sure, I’d love to use excuses and say that it’s because road teams went 11-3. Sure, I’d love to point out that the weekly winner in our Pick ‘Em League was barely over 50 percent. Sure, I’d love to find as many excuses as possible. But I won’t even mention them. Not one word.
And after a fantastic season last year, this one has me thankful I don’t get to hold on to my column based on my winning percentage! But let’s look at it like the Saints. Well, make that the Seahawks – there are still seven weeks to go, and we can get ourselves back in this thing.
You with me? Let’s do it!
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Here we go with Week 11 (home team in bold):
16 points: NO PICK due to byes.
Last week: No pick due to byes. 16-point record: 2-1.
15 points: NO PICK due to byes.
Last week: No pick due to byes. 15-point record: 2-2.
14 points: CAROLINA over WASHINGTON, Sunday at noon
If I didn’t before, I believe, I believe. Still, it’s hard to comprehend that Carolina has won THIRTEEN consecutive regular-season games. Doesn’t matter what your eyes tell you – it means they’re that bleepity-bleep good. And the Redskins on the road? Pretty bleepity-bleep mediocre. Against the spread: Panthers minus-7.5.
Last week: Green Bay over Detroit (L). 14-point record: 8-1. ATS, Packers -11.5 (L)
13 points: NEW ENGLAND over BUFFALO, Monday at 7:30 p.m.
I didn’t get much right last week, but at least my gut was right with New England. It’s hard to beat the best, and it’s really hard to beat the best when they’re lucky, too. The streak will come to an end sometime before the playoffs, but not to Rex Ryan at home. Against the spread: Patriots minus-7.5.
Last week: Carolina over Tennessee (W). 13-point record: 7-3. ATS, Panthers -4.5 (W)
12 points: ATLANTA over INDIANAPOLIS, Sunday at noon
Both teams have had a week off to lick their wounds. Seems pretty easy to see, however, the Colts have a lot more licking to do than the Falcons. Wait, that sounded way worse than I meant it. Get your minds out of the gutters, you sickos. Against the spread: Falcons minus-6.5.
Last week: Cincinnati over Houston (L). 12-point record: 8-2. ATS, Texans +10.5 (W)
11 points: MIAMI over DALLAS, Sunday at noon
Wonder if Jerry Jones is getting any sleep at night these days? I’ll tell you, give me the Cowboys and I’d sleep like a baby. I could care less how bad they are – I’d be one rich sports writer who would probably take off the next 30 years. Of course if I owned the Cowboys, I’d hire a real general manager. Against the spread: Dolphins even.
Last week: Baltimore over Jacksonville (L). 11-point record: 6-4. ATS, Ravens -5.5 (L)
10 points: DENVER over CHICAGO, Sunday at noon
Um, Peyton Manning, what up wit dat? It’s really hard to defend a guy who throws for 35 yards and four interceptions, even if he did break the all-time record for yards passing. This means this will be one of those games where the bookie-types make lots of money with everyone who thinks the Bears are back and the Broncos stink. I know a trap when I see one. Against the spread: Broncos minus-1.5.
Last week: Pittsburgh over Cleveland (W). 10-point record: 7-3. ATS, Steelers -4.5 (W)
9 points: PHILADELPHIA over TAMPA BAY, Sunday at noon
OK, OK, I’ll admit it: the Buccaneers aren’t nearly as bad as I thought, and the Eagles aren’t going to the Super Bowl. But if you think I am taking Tampa Bay on the road at the Linc, then it’s obvious you have already been dipping into the egg nog. That stuff is nasty. Against the spread: Bucs plus-6.5.
Last week: Denver over Kansas City (L). 9-point record: 5-5. ATS, Broncos -6.5 (L)
8 points: SEATTLE over SAN FRANCISCO, Sunday at 3:25 p.m.
Last week, I said I have no read on the Seahawks. I would like to amend that: my read is they are mediocre, at best. On the other hand, who needs to read the 49ers when they have turned to Blaine Gabbert as their savior? Against the spread: 49ers plus-12.5.
Last week: St. Louis over Chicago (L). 8-point record: 4-6. ATS, Rams -8.5 (L)
7 points: JACKSONVILLE over TENNESSEE, Thursday at 7:25 p.m.
With a victory here, the Jaguars can get to 4-6 and keep themselves right in the thick of the chase for the AFC South title. And I mean real thick – like some sort of sludge that comes out of your oil pan after going 30,000 miles without an oil change. Against the spread: Jaguars minus-2.5.
Last week: New Orleans over Washington (L). 7-point record: 9-1. (It had to end some time.) ATS, Saints -1.5 (L)
6 points: ARIZONA over CINCINNATI, Sunday at 7:30 p.m.
It’s time to stop doubting the Cardinals, if you haven’t done so already. Still, what’s most surprising is how well their offense has played, including a bail out last Sunday night at Seattle. Hard to pick any other team as the best in the NFC right now. Conversely, as well as the Bengals have played, this will be by far the toughest venue they’ve played all season. Two losses in a row after starting the season 8-0. Against the spread: Cardinals minus-2.5.
Last week: Dallas over Tampa Bay (L). 6-point record: 7-3. ATS, Cowboys +1.5 (L)
5 points: NY JETS over HOUSTON, Sunday at noon
Whether it’s at home or on the road, for the most part, the Jets have played well against inferior teams. And the fact they should have success holding down DeAndre Hopkins gives them the advantage here. Against the spread: Jets minus-2.5.
Last week: Philadelphia over Miami (L). 5-point record: 7-3. ATS, Dolphins +6.5 (W)
4 points: DETROIT over OAKLAND, Sunday at noon
Are the Lions finally coming out of their shell, or was last week a complete fluke? More than midway through the season, it’s tough to tell. And it’s also tough to figure the Raiders, who had seemed to gain the confidence needed for a young team to make a push. Despite the fact Oakland is due for a win after winning two, losing two, winning two and losing two again, this streak feels a little different than the first. Against the spread: Lions plus-1.5.
Last week: NY Jets over Buffalo (L). 4-point record: 3-7. ATS, Jets -2.5 (L)
3 points: KANSAS CITY over SAN DIEGO, Sunday at 3:05 p.m.
One thing I know is that the Chargers need lots of help. Don’t get me wrong, one game a season does not make for Kansas City, but a strong defense and Cairo Santos’ leg might be all they need. Against the spread: Chargers plus-3.5.
Last week: New England over NY Giants (W). 3-point record: 1-9. (It took the Patriots to break the schneid, and that almost didn’t work.) ATS, Giants +7.5 (W)
2 points: BALTIMORE over ST. LOUIS, Sunday at noon
Now that Nick Foles has been benched in favor of Case Keenum tells me frustration abounds in Rams land. And while frustration has been the name of the Ravens’ game all season, in the battle of two bumbling teams, I’ll take the one at home. Against the spread: Ravens minus-1.5.
Last week: Seattle over Arizona (L). 2-point record: 4-6. ATS, Seahawks -2.5 (L)
1 point: MINNESOTA over GREEN BAY, Sunday at 3:25 p.m.
Sorry, Vikings fans. I continue to pick against your Purple People Eaters and they continue to prove me wrong. Well, enough already. I am officially on the bandwagon – at least until this pick jinxes you and I have to jump off again next week. Against the spread: Vikings even.
Last week: Oakland over Minnesota (L). 1-point record: 5-5. ATS, Raiders -2.5 (L)
* Spreads are gathered from Odds Shark on Monday of each week.
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Last week STRAIGHT UP: 3-11. Season: 84-62 (.575).
Last week AGAINST THE SPREAD: 5-9. Season: 65-81 (.445).
POINT TOTALS
Week 10: 26/105 possible points. (Um, um, um.) Weekly rank: 99 out of 121. Overall: 741/1,144. Overall rank: 16 of 241.
Week 10 READERS winner: Mike V, 63/105.
Overall READERS leader: Robert Hobbs, 776/1,144.
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PREVIOUS COLUMNS (click on week to view)
Week 10: 3-10 straight up, 5-9 ATS
Week 9: 7-6 straight up, 7-6 ATS
Week 8: 8-6 straight up, 6-8 ATS
Week 7: 10-4 straight up, 4-10 ATS
Week 6: 9-5 straight up, 8-6 ATS
Week 5: 11-3 straight up, 5-9 ATS
Week 4: 8-7 straight up, 6-9 ATS
Week 3: 13-3 straight up, 10-6 ATS
Week 2: 7-9 straight up, 7-9 ATS
Week 1: 8-8 straight up, 7-9 ATS
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Jim Derry can be reached at [email protected] or 504.232.9944. Follow him on Twitter at www.twitter.com/JimDerryJr.
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