The Morning After: Julian Edelman's Bad Break
Julian Edelman’s transformation from secret weapon to star has been gradual. The former two-way player was allowed to hit free agency not once, but twice by the team whose receiver corps he now leads. He spent four days on the open market in 2014 before the Pats finally signed him to a four-year, $17 million contract. 323 days later, he caught caught nine passes for 109 yards and a touchdown in Super Bowl XLIX.
Even still, Edelman was unloved by fantasy owners in summer drafts, going as the WR18. That put him two spots behind Andre Johnson, and just one ahead of Golden Tate. He entered Week 10 as the WR5 by average points, and on pace for 104/1,278/14.
Defying expectations has become the norm for the diminutive slot receiver, except in one area — injuries. Edelman missed 18 games over his first five seasons with a variety of ailments, including a broken hand, broken right foot, concussions and ankle issues. His latest, another broken foot, will likely cost him the final seven games of the regular season, and leaves him questionable for the playoffs. It’s as big of a blow for the Patriots as it is for fantasy owners, as Tom Brady’s receiver depth chart was thin even before his No. 1 got hurt.
The next man up is Danny Amendola, a poor man’s Wes Welker’s poor man’s Wes Welker. Amendola has always had sure hands, but is a half-step slower than Edelman, and less of a big-play threat. More than all but a select few wide receivers, Amendola is willing to sacrifice his body for any catch. Like Edelman, this leaves him prone to injury, and perhaps a ticking time bomb opposite Brandon LaFell. Amendola will soak up targets and catches, but just like Edelman isn’t quite Welker, he isn’t quite Edelman. Add him on the waiver wire, but don’t expect every-week WR2 production, let alone WR1.
As for Edelman, published reports suggest his “Jones fracture” is to his left foot, though video seems to suggest his right. It was Edelman’s right foot that right required surgery in 2012. Another operation to repair another right break would portend poorly for his future.
Like few teams in NFL history, the Pats seem to blow by obstacles en route to victories, usually big ones. But Edelman’s injury will test them more than any on offense since Rob Gronkowski’s torn ACL in 2013. If he can’t make it back for the postseason, a team that also just lost Dion Lewis may not have the horses to defend its title.
Five Week 10 Negatives
Peyton Manning’s Matt Schaub-ian afternoon. Gary Kubiak was as patient as he could be with his starting quarterback, supplying a leash only one of the greatest players in league history could get. But Manning’s benching after his fourth interception in 35 minutes was meant as mercy, not punishment. Playing through rib and foot issues, Manning displayed zero touch or drive, making his first eight shaky performances look like they came from a quarterback 15 years his junior. Manning didn’t know where the ball was going, which generally meant it ended up in the mitts of Chiefs defenders. Of his 20 passes, 3-4 more could have easily been picked. Kubiak said afterward that he regretted playing Manning in the first place, placing the blame for the performance squarely on Manning’s health. That’s both good and bad. It means Manning will remain the Broncos’ starter when healthy, but that he may be given 1-2 games to get so. That creates a window for Brock Osweiler to run with starting duties, though he didn’t look up to the task on Sunday. If Manning is under center against the Bears next week, it will be as a bottom-barrel QB2.
Aaron Rodgers’ latest shaky day. Rodgers’ 61 passes were a career high, but they produced just 333 yards, and a Gabbert-ian 5.46 YPA. The performance came against a defense that had been hemorrhaging big plays, allowing the highest YPA against in the entire league. Rodgers has now posted a sub-6.00 YPA in 2-of-3 starts, an unthinkable ignominy for the league’s best player. It speaks to how few big plays he’s creating, and how out of sync he is with his Jordy Nelson-less receiver corps. Rodgers will probably figure it out — when hasn’t he? — but he’ll be a mere mid-range QB1 against the Vikings’ tough defense in Week 11.
Sam Bradford’s injury. The other shoe finally dropped for Bradford, though it was hardly an “injury prone” type of ailment. Bradford was pile-driven into the turf by Dolphins LB Chris McCain, spraining his non-throwing shoulder and suffering a concussion. At the very least, he appears unlikely to start against the Bucs, thrusting Mark Sanchez back into the starting lineup. For much of the season, there’s been a school of thought that Sanchez gives the Eagles their best chance to win, but his two biggest contributions on Sunday were a Jordan Matthews hospital ball and end zone interception. It’s hard to look good when you’re forced into a game on the spot, but expectations should be low for the “Sanchize” against Tampa.
Russell Wilson’s latest one touchdown performance. The league’s top dual threat has only 10 total scores through nine games, and hasn’t cleared 250 yards passing since Week 4. The numbers seem incongruent with rate stats that suggest Wilson should be making more big plays, a theory that will be put to the test against the Blaine Gabbert-led 49ers next week. DC Eric Mangini largely held Wilson in check in Week 7 in San Francisco, but his defense has been far less effective on the road.
Mark Ingram’s eight-touch day against the Redskins’ awful run defense. Ingram took the ball 70 yards on New Orleans’ fourth play from scrimmage. He got the rock just seven times thereafter, playing behind C.J. Spiller and Tim Hightower. A “nick” was supposedly to blame, but Ingram was never announced with an injury. Ingram has now face-planted in back-to-back plum matchups, helping the Saints to two losses, and leaving fantasy owners in a lurch. We’d like to think he’ll be ready to rock after New Orleans’ Week 11 bye, but rhyme and or reason haven’t been Ingram’s thing this season.
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