Rookie of the Year 2015: Sizing up the finalists

Award season is officially upon us! We’ve already seen Gold Gloves and Silver Sluggers handed out, but Monday begins the major award announcements. 

It’s fitting that the Rookie of the Year award is the first of the Baseball Writer Association of America awards to be announced, considering 2015 was the year of the rookie. A number of top prospects not only came up during the year, but dominated in their first taste of big league action. Their performances gave fans a glimpse at the future of the game, and the future looks pretty dang strong.

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In the National League, Kris Bryant is probably a big favorite. The 23-year-old stole headlines all the way back in March, and then proceeded to show why he deserved to be in the majors from the start of the regular season. Matt Duffy proved to be a worthy adversary, despite the fact that he was one of the few standout prospects who didn’t rate near the top of lists coming into the season. Jung-ho Kang isn’t a traditional rookie, in that he’s already 28, but he was fantastic until an injury put him out of commission. Bryant seems like the easy choice here, but Duffy and Kang deserve recognition. 

Over in the American League, things are bit more difficult. Carlos Correa grabbed the attention of the baseball world, immediately becoming a star while leading the Houston Astros to the playoffs. While Correa received more national attention, Francisco Lindor of the Cleveland Indians compiled some fairly exceptional, if not better, numbers under the radar.

It’s widely assumed one of those two will win the award, but that shouldn’t take away from what Miguel Sano accomplished. He was excellent for the Minnesota Twins, but played in roughly 20 fewer games than Correa and Lindor. This one should be exciting. While only one of Correa or Lindor can come away with this award, you get the sense that there will be a chance at redemption when both players are competing for the AL MVP in a few years. It was truly a loaded rookie class.

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That’s just a quick overview. Let’s take a closer look at each player and examine their story, stats and cases for winning. The winners will be officially announced Monday in an MLB Network special that begins at 6 p.m. ET.

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AMERICAN LEAGUE
Carlos Correa — SS, Houston Astros
In brief: The 20-year-old lived up to every expectation after he was called up. He immediately became the team’s best offensive player, and one of the best all around players in the AL. Correa played the most crucial position on the field and was a big part of the Astros making the playoffs. He’s going to be really great for a long time.

Key stats: Correa’s 22 home runs led all AL rookies. He also managed a ridiculous .279/.345/.512 slash line despite the fact that he was 20 years old. His 133 wRC+ was the highest among all Astros regulars. He also managed to swipe 14 bags.

Case for: Correa was the best player on a playoff club. He came into the year with plenty of promise, and did not disappoint. He looks like he’ll be a future star, and one of the best players in baseball for years to come.

Case against: Two words: Francisco Lindor!

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Francisco Lindor — SS, Cleveland Indians
In brief: Everyone knew the glove would be good, but the bat was supposed to lag behind. That was true for about a week, and then Lindor unleashed hell upon the AL. Because Cleveland wasn’t a real playoff contender, his performance flew under the radar. Do not sleep on the 21-year-old. He’s awesome.

Key stats: Lindor’s 4.6 fWAR led all AL rookies. That figure also placed him second on the Indians despite the fact that he only played 99 games. For a player who was supposed to be all glove initially, he hit an astounding .313/.353/.482. The metrics loved Lindor’s defense, immediately putting him among the best in the game at one of the toughest defensive positions.

Case for: Lindor’s 4.6 fWAR is better than Correa’s 3.6 fWAR. While Correa hit for more power and was the bigger national story, Lindor provided a better average and on-base percentage. There’s a strong case to be made that he was the better all around player in 2015.

Case against: One of the reasons Lindor rates so much higher in fWAR is due to his defense. Defensive metrics aren’t the most dependable, particularly in a small sample. Anyone who has seen Lindor coming up believes his glove is exceptional, but if you have doubts about the metrics, that could cause you to lean Correa. Lindor’s offensive performance was a bit more surprising, so if you don’t believe he can keep it up, that might be a case for Correa. There’s no bad choice here.

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Miguel Sano — 3B/DH, Minnesota Twins
In brief: Miguel Sano can freaking hit. After missing all of 2014 while recovering from Tommy John surgery, Sano was somewhat of a surprise call up for the Twins. He did not disappoint. The 22-year-old almost immediately became the team’s best offensive threat, and nearly led them to a playoff berth. 

Key stats: Sano finished just three home runs off the AL rookie lead despite the fact that he received roughly 100 fewer plate appearances than Correa. His 151 wRC+ makes him the best hitter of this trio, and the best hitter on the Twins. He also showed tremendous power and patience, hitting .269/.385/.530 over 335 plate appearances.

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Case for: There’s not a great one, but only because Sano is going up against two possible once-in-a-lifetime talents. He’s got an amazing power stroke, and that’s fun, but his numbers just don’t compare to Correa or Lindor.

Case against: Sano was mostly used as a DH, and that definitely hurts his value. There’s no question he can hit, but it’s unclear whether he can post acceptable numbers in the field. Both Correa and Lindor had better all around seasons, even if Sano was the best hitter of the trio.

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Kris Bryant — 3B, Chicago Cubs
In brief: Bryant dominated the headlines in March when it was unclear whether the Cubs would put him on the opening-day roster. They didn’t, and while it didn’t prove to be a mistake Bryant clearly deserved that honor. He was easily one of the team’s best hitters from the start. Everyone knew he was going to dominate, and he lived up to every expectation.

Key stats: Bryant led all rookies with a 6.5 fWAR last season. His 26 home runs tied with Joc Pederson for first place among NL rookies. Bryant hit .275/.369/.488 over 650 plate appearances and posted a strong 136 wRC+. His defense, which was a question coming into the year, fared OK according to the metrics. 

Case for: Bryant pretty much does everything well. His 6.5 fWAR was actually 10th best in all baseball, not just among rookies. He has incredible power and patience and helped lead the Cubs to the playoffs. He’s the total package and already one of the best players in the game. 

Case against: Maybe you hate strikeouts? Even then, voting against Bryant is foolish. Don’t be that dude.

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Matt Duffy — 3B, San Francisco Giants
In brief: Duffy is easily the biggest surprise on this list. The previous four players mentioned above all ranked in the top 13 on Baseball America’s top-100 prospect list coming into the year. Duffy was nowhere to be found on said list. Despite that, he settled in as arguably the second-best offensive player on the Giants. Another young Giants hitter exceeded expectations? Imagine that!

Key stats: For being a nobody prior to the season, Duffy sure put up some nice stats. He hit .295/.334/.428, with 12 home runs and 12 steals. The defensive metrics were also kind to him at third base. He was pretty much either average or above average in every facet of the game. He finished with a 4.9 fWAR, which ranked second among NL rookies.

Case for: In any other year, Duffy’s numbers may have been enough to warrant the award. Unfortunately for him, he’s going up against Bryant this season. Duffy was hitting over .300 at one point in the year while Bryant’s average was in the .260s. There was a scenario in which Duffy could have grabbed some votes due to that big lead in average, but things evened out as the season came to a close.

Case against: Kris Bryant is really good.

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Jung-ho Kang — 3B/SS, Pittsburgh Pirates
In brief: Kang came to the U.S. with a fair amount of doubts. No one really knew how well his eye-popping stats from the Korea Baseball Organization would translate here. It took some time, but Kang quieted all the doubters, and managed to work his way into the Pirates everyday lineup. Despite starting the season on the bench and getting injured in September, he still emerged as one of the best offensive players on the team.

Key stats: Kang was a solid contributors in a number of categories. He hit for both power and average, slashing .287/.355/.461 in 467 plate appearances. His 3.9 fWAR ranked second on the Pirates’ offense behind Andrew McCutchen, and third among NL rookies. 

Case for: There’s not a great case for Kang. His numbers were excellent, and he should be a solid contributor moving forward, but Bryant was just better.

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Case against: Kang isn’t your typical rookie. He’s a 28-year-old who came over from a different league. That didn’t stop Jose Abreu from winning the award last season, but some people struggle voting for older guys like Kang as the Rookie of the Year. Also, Kris Bryant still exists. 

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Chris Cwik is a writer for Big League Stew on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @Chris_Cwik