Baseball Daily Dose: Dose: Red Sox Snag Kimbrel
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The hot stove was officially lit on Friday when the Red Sox acquired closer Craig Kimbrel in a trade with the Padres. The Red Sox sent four prospects to San Diego in exchange for the flamethrowing stopper: outfielder Manuel Margot, shortstop Javier Guerra, Logan Allen, and second baseman Carlos Asuaje.
The immediate effect is obvious: the Red Sox add arguably the game’s most dominant closer to the back of their bullpen. Kimbrel, over six years in the majors, has saved 225 games with a 1.63 ERA and a 563/130 K/BB ratio in 348 1/3 innings. This past season, his first (and last) with the Padres, was his toughest as he compiled a career-high 2.58 ERA with 39 saves and an 87/22 K/BB ratio in 59 1/3 innings. When a 2.58 ERA is a career-high, one has been thoroughly good.
Kimbrel is under contract through 2017, earning $11 million in 2016 and $13 million in 2017. He will also earn either $1 million from a buyout in 2018 or $13 million if his club option is picked up.
Kimbrel’s arrival in Beantown bumps Koji Uehara to the eighth inning, which all but zeroes out his fantasy value in leagues which don’t use holds. Uehara has been dominant in his own right, but will turn 41 in April and is coming off of an injury-plagued 2015 campaign. In three seasons with the Red Sox, Uehara has saved 72 games with a 1.86 ERA and a 228/26 K/BB ratio in 179 innings.
For the Padres, Margot is the prize of the deal. The 21-year-old was rated the #4 prospect in Boston’s minor league system but was roadblocked due to the glut of Red Sox outfield talent. This past season, split between Single-A Salem and Double-A Portland, Margot hit .276/.324/.419 with six home runs, 50 RBI, 73 runs scored, and 39 stolen bases.
Asuaje broke out in 2014 between Single-A Greenville and Salem, compiling an aggregate .927 OPS. He struggled a bit offensively this past season with Double-A Portland, batting .251/.334/.374 with eight home runs and 61 RBI. Asuaje has mostly played second base but has experience at third base and in the corner outfield, making him rather versatile. He’ll have an opportunity to prove himself and potentially earn a spot on the Padres’ Opening Day roster.
Guerra, rated as the sixth-best prospect in Boston’s system, hit .279/.329/.449 with 15 home runs and 63 RBI with Greenville in his age-19 season. As the stats show relative to his age, his ceiling is quite high, but it will be some years before he’ll have a shot to crack the major league roster.
Allen, 18, was ranked #13 in Boston’s system. Taken in the eighth round of the 2015 draft, the lefty allowed three runs on 18 hits and a walk with 26 strikeouts in 24 1/3 innings between rookie ball and Low-A Lowell. Allen is essentially the lottery ticket of the bunch.
Phillies Acquire Hellickson
On Saturday afternoon, the Phillies and Diamondbacks exchanged pitchers. The Phillies received veteran starter Jeremy Hellickson and the Diamondbacks received 20-year-old Sam McWilliams.
The move clears up a bit of payroll space for the D-Backs, as Hellickson earned $4.275 million this past season. Despite posting a disappointing 4.62 ERA, the right-hander is still in line for a slight pay raise into the $5 million range in his third and final year of arbitration eligibility.
Hellickson won the American League Rookie of the Year Award in 2011 with the Rays and followed it up with another strong campaign in 2012, but has struggled in the three seasons since. He has compiled, in aggregate, a 4.86 ERA with a 310/114 K/BB ratio over 383 2/3 innings since the beginning of the 2013 season.
Hellickson has solid peripherals, having struck out between 18-19 percent of batters while walking approximately seven percent of them over the past three seasons. However, Hellickson is fly ball prone, which has naturally made him also prone to home runs. The right-hander has yielded 54 home runs in that span of time. When Hellickson was at his strongest with the Rays, he was inducing weak infield pop-ups at a rate between 10 and 16 percent. The past two seasons, Hellickson has managed sub-five percent pop-up rates.
Hellickson will turn 29 years old in April and still has the potential to turn things around. However, fantasy owners should proceed with caution as Citizens Bank Park was the sixth-most homer-friendly ballpark in baseball in 2015, according to ESPN. Arizona’s Chase Field ranked 24th.
McWilliams is a lottery ticket. He stands six feet, seven inches tall and throws a mid-90’s fastball, but that’s really all he has at the moment. His secondary pitches are subpar and he hasn’t missed many bats, having struck out only 31 of the 240 batters he’s faced in rookie ball over the past two years.
Blue Jays Sign Estrada for Two Years
Ahead of the qualifying offer deadline on Friday, the Blue Jays and starter Marco Estrada agreed to a two-year, $26 million contract. Estrada would have otherwise been forced to accept or decline the Jays’ $15.8 million qualifying offer.
Estrada, 32, had some solid seasons with the Brewers in the five previous years but battled inconsistency and injuries. He enjoyed a career year with the Jays in 2015, finishing the regular season with a 3.13 ERA and a 131/55 K/BB ratio over 181 innings. The right-hander also excelled in three post-season starts, allowing in total five runs on 14 hits and a walk with 15 strikeouts in 19 1/3 innings.
Don’t count on Estrada repeating his 2015 success, however. His 18 percent strikeout rate was a career-low and was the third straight season in which his K-rate dropped. His 7.6 walk rate was his highest since 2011. Estrada, a fly ball pitcher, appears to have gotten the good end of statistical variance on two fronts: he allowed home runs on 8.7 percent of fly balls, a career-low, and opposing hitters batted only .216 on balls in play, much lower than his .261 career average.
Rasmus Makes QO History
Since the qualifying offer system was implemented, a player had yet to accept. That changed ahead of Friday’s deadline, as outfielder Colby Rasmus became the first player to accept a qualifying offer. He’ll return to the Astros for the 2016 season at a salary of $15.8 million. Starter Brett Anderson later accepted the Dodgers’ qualifying offer, as did catcher Matt Wieters with the Orioles.
Estrada, mentioned above, bypassed the qualifying offer by agreeing to a multi-year contract.
16 other players declined qualifying offers to officially become free agents: Wei-Yin Chen, Chris Davis, Ian Desmond, Dexter Fowler, Yovani Gallardo, Alex Gordon, Zack Greinke, Jason Heyward, Hisashi Iwakuma, Howie Kendrick, Ian Kennedy, John Lackey, Daniel Murphy, Jeff Samardzija, Justin Upton, and Jordan Zimmermann.
Quick Hits: Free agent reliever Blaine Boyer has expressed interest in returning to the Twins … The Marlins have reached out to free agent catcher Jeff Mathis about re-signing … Darin Erstand withdrew his name from consideration for the Dodgers’ managerial vacancy … Mets assistant GM John Ricco said the club is not actively shopping starter Zack Wheeler … The Marlins are in the process of cultivating an innings limit for starter Jose Fernandez … The Marlins are considering adding a right-handed bat to platoon with Justin Bour at first base … The Diamondbacks have interest in Japanese pitcher Kenta Maeda and free agent Yovani Gallardo … Free agent starter Mark Buehrle will either retire or pitch for the Cardinals, according to a report … The Padres have interest in free agent shortstop Ian Desmond … The Braves are reportedly shopping first baseman Freddie Freeman as well as starter Julio Teheran and outfielders Cameron Maybin and Nick Markakis … The Padres are reportedly shopping outfielder Matt Kemp and starter Tyson Ross … The Phillies will allow Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez to compete for a starting rotation spot this spring assuming he is healthy enough … Orioles executive VP of baseball operations Dan Duquette said on Sunday that his team would like to sign a “top-of-the-rotation” starter.
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