Major League Baseball will announce the winner of the 2015 American League Rookie of the Year live on MLB Network at 6 p.m. ET Monday evening. In light of that, we’re going to make the case for each of the three candidates. Here’s the case for Carlos Correa. We’ve also made a case for the other two finalists, Francisco Lindor of the Indians and Miguel Sano of the Twins.
On June 8, the Astros called up shortstop prospect Carlos Correa. By a sturdy consensus, he was regarded as one of the top prospects in all of baseball. However, the Astros were summoning him to play at the highest level for a contending team despite his having logged just 282 minor-league games — and 53 games in the high minors — since making him the top overall pick of the 2012 draft. As well, Correa was called up despite being just 20 years and 259 days old. As it turned out, just two 2015 rookies — relievers Roberto Osuna and Miguel Castro — would debut at a younger age.
So how’d that work out for Correa and the Astros? In 99 games and 432 plate appearances, Correa batted .279/.345/.512 (132 OPS+) with 22 home runs and 22 doubles. To put that in context, the average MLB shortstop in 2015 batted .260/.308/.380. In other words, Correa on a rate basis hit like something close to an All-Star first baseman, but he did so while providing capable defense at the most premium position on the diamond. Defensively, he’s not on the level of, say, fellow AL rookie Francisco Lindor, but Correa proved to be much more polished and poised at the position than some observers anticipated. Now, there’s no doubt that he’ll stick at short long-term.
Need more? With runners in scoring position, Correa batted .284/.342/.569, and with runners on base he put up a slash line of .293/.359/.569. In situations classified as high-leverage (i.e., clutch situations), Correa batted .295/.348/.590.
In all, Correa authored a 2015 WAR of 4.1, which ranked 41st in all of baseball. Bear in mind that WAR is a cumulative stat, and, again, Correa played in just 99 games. Scale his numbers to a full season, and we’d be discussing him as an AL MVP candidate. To put a finer point on it, the Astros prior to calling up Correa averaged 4.2 runs per game. After making Correa a fixture in the lineup, they averaged 4.7 runs per game. That’s a significant leap forward, to say the least. While Correa obviously can’t take credit for that improvement by himself, he turned what had been a pronounced weak spot — production from the shortstop position — into a pronounced strength.
Without Correa, they quite possibly don’t make the postseason. Without Correa, the Astros’ renaissance that was such a big story in 2015 is a much more muted one.
Astros shortstop Carlos Correa may be the favorite to win AL Rookie of the Year for 2015. (USATSI)
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