Pick Six: How to bet Oklahoma-Baylor, Alabama-Mississippi State – CBSSports.com

Every week, CBS Sports college football writer Tom Fornelli will make six picks for the upcoming weekend’s college football games. He promises that these picks will make you rich beyond your wildest dreams.

When things are going poorly, I tend to look for positives. They aren’t always there, but when I find them, it keeps me from going over the edge.

The last month of Pick Six has me damn near the edge, but thankfully, I’m finding positives.

I’ll start with the negatives. I went 2-4 last week. In the last four weeks, I’ve now gone 10-14. I used to be 9-3 on the season in my Games of the Week picks. I’m now 10-10.

But it’s not all bad!

You see, I pick the Games of the Week because they’re the biggest games of the week, not because I have some great read on them. The games I do pick for myself are my Lock of the Week, Underdog of the Week, and the Over/Under of the Week.

Even though I’m in a huge slump overall, I’m still 21-9 in those games on the season.

That record is keeping me from wallowing in the misery of my 1-9 mark in Games of the Week the last month.

That record is keeping me sane.

At least until I go 6-0 this week, and everything’s better again.

Jarrett Stidham faces an even tougher test in his second week as the starter. (USATSI)

Games of the Week

No. 12 Oklahoma (+2.5) at No. 6 Baylor: The last two years I have picked Oklahoma to not only cover against Baylor, but to beat Baylor. I have been rewarded with two Oklahoma losses, and the Sooners were outscored 89-26. So of course, I’m back picking Oklahoma again this year.

But it’s going to be different this year (I think)!

The last two years, I was simply overestimating the Sooners. This year, I think too many people are underestimating them, writing them off since that sad loss against Texas. But if you look at advanced stats, there are currently three teams in the country who rank in the top 20 of S&P+ in both offense and defense. Those teams are Clemson, Ohio State and Oklahoma.

And that’s why I’m on Oklahoma here. It’s the more complete team. There’s no denying that Baylor’s offense has been scorching Earth where ever it goes. Those same S&P+ numbers rate Baylor the best offense in the country. It’s just the defense ranks No. 79. And as good as Jarrett Stidham looked against Kansas State last week, the Wildcats’ defense isn’t the Oklahoma defense. The Sooners will give Stidham a lot more to think about.

I think Saturday night is when Oklahoma reminds the country that it’s still a contender this season. Oklahoma 38, Baylor 35

SportsLine: Why Stidham is the key to Baylor’s showdown with the Sooners

No. 2 Alabama (-8) at No. 17 Mississippi State: You know, last week I went against Alabama because I like to follow a simple rule: bet against Alabama at home, and bet with them on the road. Well, just because that blew up in my face last week doesn’t mean I’m going to abandon the philosophy now.

Sure, there’s a part of me that’s a little worried about a letdown following a major win, but seriously, how good did Alabama look last week? That was its best performance in years. The only thing missing was an Imperial March soundtrack for the entire game.

Anyway, those trends I spoke of. Alabama has played three games outside Tuscaloosa this season. It beat Wisconsin by 18, Georgia by 28, and Texas A&M by 18. It’s covered the spread in all three of those games too.

Maybe Mississippi State is better than all three of those teams — and as I wrote earlier this week, it’s hard to know just how good the Bulldogs actually are — but if it is, I don’t think it’s by a margin great enough to make a major difference. Alabama 35, Mississippi State 20

Check out the SportsLine pick and prediction for Crimson Tide-Bulldogs

Lock of the Week

No. 13 Michigan State (-15) vs. Maryland: All coaches get angry. Sometimes that anger works against them, and sometimes it doesn’t change much of anything. Then there are the coaches who terrify me when they’re mad, and Michigan State’s Mark Dantonio is one of them.

Trust me, Dantonio isn’t happy about how Michigan State’s game ended against Nebraska last week. Which works to my benefit in this pick, because now I know the Spartans won’t get caught looking past Maryland to next week’s showdown with Ohio State. Maryland is a bad team this year, and in Big Ten play, it’s 0-5 and losing by an average of about 15 points per game. But when we look closer, we see that against the three ranked Big Ten teams the Terps have played (Michigan, Ohio State, Iowa), they’re losing by an average of 21.7 points per game. Also, Maryland just can’t pass to save its life. If you have any hope of beating Michigan State’s defense, it has to be through the air. Michigan State 38, Maryland 13

Check out the SportsLine pick and prediction for Spartans-Terrapins

Underdog of the Week

Syracuse (+28) vs. No. 1 Clemson: Here I am picking Syracuse against Clemson! Hooray! But you know what? I don’t feel all that bad about it. First of all, 28 points is a lot of points to be giving a home team in a conference game. There’s more to this, though.

Clemson is coming off the biggest win its had in a long time. It finally slayed the Florida State dragon last week. And now we’re supposed to expect that a team that’s coming off such a major high is going to head north to Syracuse to take on the Orange in the Carrier Dome and maintain that kind of energy? I just don’t see it. Clemson’s never going to be in danger of the upset, but it’ll sleepwalk through enough of this game to miss the cover. Clemson 31, Syracuse 13

Check out the SportsLine pick and prediction for Tigers-Orange

Over/Under of the Week

Troy vs. Georgia Southern (Over 56.5): Fun Belt action! This seems rather easy to me. Troy got off to a very slow start to the season, but in the last three weeks, its offense has turned a corner, averaging 48 points per game, and that includes putting up 41 against Appalachian State. Meanwhile, Georgia Southern is scoring 36.5 points per game itself on the season, and has a defense that isn’t horrible, but isn’t exactly a lockdown unit. Don’t be surprised if this over comes through before the end of the third quarter. Georgia Southern 41, Troy 31

Check out the SportsLine pick and prediction for Eagles-Trojans

Hail Mary of the Week

It’s been a while since a Hail Mary paid off for us. Maybe we’re due.

If you aren’t familiar with the Hail Mary, here’s how it works: It’s essentially a three-game parlay, but you only bet one game at a time. If the first game wins, you use the winnings on the next game, and so on. It’s a play that won’t come through most of the time, but when it does, it pays off nicely.

And here’s this week’s play.

Thursday night: Georgia Tech vs. Virginia Tech (Over 52.5) –>

Saturday afternoon: Eastern Michigan vs. UMass (Under 69.5) –>

Saturday night: San Diego State vs. Wyoming (Over 51)

Bonus Picks of the Week

These picks don’t count against my weekly record, but I feel pretty good about them as well. Just not well enough to officially include them.

No. 3 Ohio State (-16.5) at Illinois

No. 11 Florida (-7.5) at South Carolina

Air Force (+1) vs. Utah State

Arkansas State (-14.5) vs. Louisiana-Monroe

No. 14 Michigan (-13) at Indiana

Oregon (+10) at No. 7 Stanford

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