Buffalo Bills 22, New York Jets 17

If there’s one thing you can say about Rex Ryan, it’s that he loves the limelight. A prime-time Thursday Night Football game against his former team? This was the perfect time for Ryan’s Buffalo Bills to thrive over the New York Jets.

Sammy Watkins, the Bills’ prized first-round receiver from the 2014 class, was targeted seven times but only caught three passes. That was fine, as Ryan’s defense shutdown Ryan Fitzpatrick, the Jets quarterback who went to Harvard, in case you’ve been under a rock for the past decade.

Fitzpatrick completed only 15 of 34 passing attempts for a 5.7 yards-per-pass average and two interceptions. The key to beating the Bills is getting the ball out quickly. If you watched any of the Patriots’ game with the Bills, that blueprint was clear. Fitzpatrick just couldn’t get it done.

The Bills were up by a score of 22-10 heading into the fourth quarter. The Jets made the margin of victory respectable by scoring another touchdown, but losing at home to a divisional rival one week after scraping by the Jacksonville Jaguars isn’t a good look.

New York has actually had a great record of beating team by multiple scores in 2015. This was an uncharacteristic game from both sides, as the Bills pulled the straight-up upset. Is this indicative of the direction the two teams are heading in or a fluke? This will be a crucial question heading into the coming weeks. 

Cover: Bills

Opening line: Jacksonville @ Baltimore (-6.5)

Current line: Jacksonville @ Baltimore (-5.5)

The Baltimore Ravens are 5.5-point favorites. Assuming three points of home-field advantage, that would make them straight-up underdogs in Jacksonville.

The Ravens haven’t lived up to the hype this year and have faced plenty of injuries, but their losses aren’t as bad as their record indicates. Their first three losses came by a combined 14 points against the Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders and Cincinnati Bengals, potentially three of the four best AFC teams this season. They then lost to the Cleveland Browns by three points, the 49ers by five in San Francisco and the Cardinals by eight in Glendale, Arizona, on Monday Night Football.

On an individual basis, they haven’t looked like a disaster. It’s only when we judge them by their record that they look like a bottom-five team. Coming off a bye week, the Ravens have a chance to build momentum into 2016. This is a franchise with courage: Baltimore won’t shut it all down for a draft pick.

On the other sideline are the Jacksonville Jaguars, who have lost by double digits three times, something the 2-6 Ravens haven’t done once. The Ravens lack quality defensive backs and pass-rushers, but Blake Bortles is good for one horrific play, no matter the defense, in between looking like a future franchise quarterback. His peaks are getting higher, but his valleys haven’t disappeared into the distance just yet.

The pick: Baltimore (-5.5)

Opening line: New Orleans @ Washington (PK)

Current line: New Orleans @ Washington (+1.5)

The New Orleans Saints, who have not been able to field a defense all season, are road favorites this week? This is the same team that lost to the Tennessee Titans, who won two non-Week 1 games since December 1, 2013, heading into last week, at home?

The New England Patriots beat down the Washington Redskins. Big whoop. That has been happening all season against virtually anyone the Patriots have played. So in New Orleans, the Saints would be favored by seven or eight points, a margin of victory of which they have only surpassed in one of their nine games this season? Sure.

Give me Washington. I like that.

The pick: Washington (+1.5)

Opening line: Chicago @ St. Louis (-9)

Current line: Chicago @ St. Louis (-7)

The St. Louis Rams shouldn’t be favored by more than a score against anyone in the league. I get that the Chicago Bears are on a shorter week after playing Monday Night Football, but that doesn’t signify a three-point swing. The Rams are clearly the better team on paper, but their quarterback situation is a disaster.

There are only so many times you can run a zone play with Todd Gurley and then work reverse action with Tavon Austin. The Rams are playing a high school style of offense at the NFL level because they’re limited in the passing game. Also, their once great kicker Greg Zuerlein has missed seven field goals in his past four games. This is after it took Gurley, who was posting historical numbers in the rushing yards column, multiple games to finally reach the red zone because teams just locked onto him in that situation.

I’m reluctantly taking the Chicago Bears here. If nothing else, they can pass their way into a game, and Jeremy Langford looked like a decent replacement for Matt Forte against the San Diego Chargers. St. Louis has only won two games this year by more than a touchdown: home matchups against the Cleveland Browns and San Francisco 49ers, two squads who had quarterbacks who are notably horrible against pressure.

Are the Rams a better team at home, or were those flukes? I’m going to swing at the latter.

The pick: Chicago (+9)

Opening line: Miami @ Philadelphia (-5.5)

Current line: Miami @ Philadelphia (-6.5)

I get that it’s easy to make fun of the NFC East’s struggles, but the Philadelphia Eagles are quietly one of the better teams in the NFL. If I were to handicap them on a neutral field against NFC teams, the Packers, Panthers and Seahawks are the only teams I’d take over them straight up right now. The Eagles aren’t getting enough credit for just how good that defense is.

We all want to talk about their offense, because tearing down coaches like Chip Kelly seems to be a pastime of the media, but we shouldn’t overlook the other side of the ball. Kelly’s approach to team building was simple: I’ll figure out the offense, and we’ll just spend assets on the defense. So far, the defense has held up its share of the deal.

This line opened with the Eagles favored by 5.5 points. That means in Miami, the Dolphins would be favored by a half point to being underdogs by a half point, depending on how poor Vegas feels Miami’s home-field advantage is. Either way, I would take Philadelphia on the road to win.

I don’t trust Miami’s former tight ends coach Dan Campbell to turn this team around for an entire season. I don’t trust that defense to hold up with defensive end Cameron Wake out. The Eagles defense faces a spread system every day in practice; Philly is not going to get gashed by five-yard passes from Ryan Tannehill, which is seemingly the only way the Dolphins know how to win.

The pick: Philadelphia (-5.5)

Opening line: Carolina @ Tennessee (+6)

Current line: Carolina @ Tennessee (+5)

First off, this is going to be one of the best games of the week. We’ve seen the “next up: mobile quarterbacks” era fail before when Colin Kaepernick and Robert Griffin III looked hot, but this season has been great for both Cam Newton and Marcus Mariota.

Newton is a legitimate All-Pro and MVP contender if you watch film and discount traditional counting stats. When he’s able to load up, no one throws a better ball in the NFL. He makes some passes that maybe only three or four other humans can execute. Remember, Andrew Luck as a redshirt sophomore decided to return to Stanford when the Panthers held the first overall pick.

That might have been a blessing in disguise for Carolina.

Mariota started the season with a four-touchdown performance, and after missing two games with an MCL injury, he threw for four touchdowns again against the New Orleans Saints last weekend. Really, when he’s facing poor defenses, like the Saints’ and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’, he looks like an elite quarterback—something the now-unemployed Ken Whisenhunt saw in him.

The issue is, when he’s faced with a tough defensive front, Mariota is going to struggle. The Titans offensive line just isn’t built to compete with quality teams, and the Oregon product tends to hold onto the ball. This leads to sacks and, even worse, sack-fumbles. If you get the chance to watch the Cleveland and Miami games again, you’ll notice this over and over.

Carolina’s line is tough. I’m not sure this won’t be another 38-10 loss, like Tennessee sustained at home against the Dolphins a month ago. Even last week, the Titans looked stale and dead until Delanie Walker got lucky and came down with a huge catch to build momentum for the squad.

Since December 1, 2013, the Titans have only won two games in regulation outside of the opening weekend, and they both came against the Jacksonville Jaguars, who just might be the hands-down worst team in the hands-down worst conference over the past three seasons. If you don’t feel comfortable with the spread, parlay the Carolina money line with everything you bet this weekend.

This line essentially makes the Panthers 10-point favorites at home, which sounds about right to me.

The pick: Carolina (-5)

Opening line: Detroit @ Green Bay (-11)

Current line: Detroit @ Green Bay (-11.5)

The Green Bay Packers’ identity is simple: Against teams in which they can score early, they’ll thrive. Against teams in which they can’t, they’ll stumble.

The entire defense of the Packers is built around two things: sacks and interceptions. The issue is, if you have a lead against Aaron Rodgers, the last thing you want to do is speed the game up and regress to the mean. If you’re up, you want to grind the clock, which is horrible news for Green Bay’s bad run defense. 

Right now, the Packers allow 125 rushing yards per game. Only 10 teams in the NFL have allowed over 1,000 yards on the ground. Only the Washington Redskins, who edge out Green Bay with two fewer carries, have been run on less than the Packers out of the nine remaining qualifying teams.

The Detroit Lions are in absolute disaster mode. They’ve seemingly fired every decision-maker on the team other than Jim Caldwell, the head coach who is now the media’s next scapegoat. After this game, he might not have a job. After two straight losses, and after being one of the most consistent teams in the league, the Packers are going to bounce back with a two-score win. An 11-point game at home means Green Bay would be favored by five points on the road, a line I would also be willing to take in this situation.

The pick: Green Bay (-11)

Opening line: Cleveland @ Pittsburgh (-4.5)

Current line: Cleveland @ Pittsburgh (-5)

This is just a feel play. The Cleveland Browns are coming off some rest after playing Thursday Night Football against the Cincinnati Bengals last weekend. Sure, they didn’t look great, but the Bengals are a force in the AFC, and Johnny Manziel played much better than the stat sheet would suggest.

Ben Roethlisberger went down again last weekend, and the Pittsburgh Steelers seem to be rolling with Landry Jones. At least when Michael Vick was in at quarterback, the team had a change-up element, as Vick could run the ball against man coverage if his deep men were covered. With Jones, Pittsburgh is running the same offense as Roethlisberger, just less efficiently.

Browns head coach Mike Pettine needs to treat this game like his job depends on it, because once Jim Caldwell is out in Detroit, Pettine is the next man up on the media’s list. Do you trust a team led by Jones, without Le’Veon Bell, to cover more than a three-point line? I wouldn’t.

Manziel might not even play, as starter Josh McCown, who has been better this season, is returning from injury. Taking Cleveland in Pittsburgh is never good for your nerves, but there’s a better chance than not that it benefit your wallet.

The pick: Cleveland (+5)

Opening line: Dallas @ Tampa Bay (+1)

Current line: Dallas @ Tampa Bay (-1)

In Tampa, the Dallas Cowboys are road favorites. That means in Dallas, they would be favored by a field goal or more. Jameis Winston is going to be the best quarterback on the field, and so long as receiver Mike Evans doesn’t have an atrocious game like last weekend, when he couldn’t hold onto the football, the Buccaneers probably have the more functional passing offense.

You have to remember, Dez Bryant‘s receiving touchdown was a wild desperation attempt in which he just out-jumped everyone in AT&T Stadium for the score. Before last weekend, Matt Cassel only had one touchdown in 2015, which makes sense considering he wasn’t even on the Cowboys’ roster to start the year.

Cassel as a road favorite. This is one of the easiest picks of the week. You’re supposed to take the underdogs in Dallas games, and that’s exactly what we’re going to do here.

The pick: Tampa Bay (+1)

Opening line: Minnesota @ Oakland (-2.5)

Current line: Minnesota @ Oakland (-3)

This line was hung late due to the concussion that Teddy Bridgewater suffered last weekend, but the Oakland Raiders should have been favored whether or not he starts. This game is going to be interesting from a national narrative standpoint. The media largely viewed Bridgewater as a media darling who fell in the draft, eventually landing as the final first-round pick in 2014, while Derek Carr was shunned for his last name and is now looking like the best quarterback from that class.

On a neutral field, I give a slight edge to Oakland, because of how much better its offensive line has looked this season compared to the Minnesota’s. Early on in the year, it looked like the breakout offensive line was going to be the Washington Redskins’, after they neutralized the St. Louis Rams defensive line, but the Raiders have been able to do it on a consistent basis.

Here’s an example of how good that line is: Before Thursday Night Football against the Bills, the New York Jets had only lost three games, but they had won four games by double digits. Four double-digit wins in eight games warrants an “elite team” label in the NFL, where each weekend is a battle. They lost to the Philadelphia Eagles in a one-score statement game, they lost to the New England Patriots by seven points in a game where quarterback Tom Brady basically threw a quick pass on every play to avoid the Jets’ defensive line, and they lost to the Raiders, who just manhandled the Jets defensive line, the same one the Patriots feared the week before, in a 14-point game.

That Oakland line is dominant. Minnesota’s defensive line is the strength of the team, as youth in the other units are growing. The Vikings offense hasn’t been dominant. The Raiders should win in the trenches on both sides of the ball, and the Amari Cooper-Derek Carr “AC/DC” combination is the most talented passer-to-target tandem in the game. A dinged-up Bridgewater on the road isn’t the play.

The pick: Oakland (-2.5)

Opening line: New England @ New York Giants (+7)

Current line: New England @ New York Giants (+8.5)

I’m not going to lay out some conspiracy theory about how the New York Giants are consistently built in a way to beat the New England Patriots, like they’ve done in two Super Bowls. The Patriots are clearly the better team and should be favored in this game. In New England, though, how many points would the squad be favored by? According to this line, it would be about 14.5 points.

This means that Vegas essentially views the Giants and the Washington Redskins as the same team. New York has won three games by more than seven points, including one against the Redskins, while only losing one by more than seven points, a Monday Night Football game in Philadelphia.

This might sound weird, since everyone hates the NFC East this year, but the division is not that bad. Sure, the Redskins aren’t great, but the Dallas Cowboys are only letdowns because they’re playing Brandon Weeden and Matt Cassel, and the Giants and Eagles are simply losing close games. As the season goes along, close games tend to even out, while matches of multiple scores are better indicators of which teams are more talented on a week-to-week basis.

The Giants just shouldn’t be underdogs by more than seven points against any team in the NFL. The public loves the undefeated Patriots, and for good reason: They’re battling attrition more competitively than their opponents on Sundays.

When you think New York quarterback Eli Manning is hot, it’s time to sell, and when you think he’s cold, it’s time to buy. He threw six touchdowns two weeks ago after posting a 76.7 passer rating. Last weekend, he hit the 74.3 mark in that category. Buy, buy, buy.

The pick: New York Giants (+8.5)

Opening line: Kansas City @ Denver (-6.5)

Current line: Kansas City @ Denver (-7)

The Denver Broncos are seven-point favorites here, despite the fact that they’ve won by more than seven in only two out of their eight games this season. The most notable game came against the Green Bay Packers two weeks ago, when Peyton Manning looked like the Peyton Manning of yesteryear coming off of a bye week. The other game was against the Detroit Lions, who are in the lead for the first overall pick.

The Kansas City Chiefs are quietly improving and might be a better squad without running back Jamaal Charles in the lineup. It almost seems like head coach Andy Reid relied on Charles to do too much and is now opening the playbook up for quarterback Alex Smith, who notoriously didn’t throw a touchdown to a wide receiver last season.

After losing five straight games, with the final two coming by a combined seven points, the Chiefs won back-to-back against the Pittsburgh Steelers and Detroit Lions heading into their bye week. If a touchdown win by the Broncos is going to give me a push in this situation, I’ll take it. Until they prove otherwise consistently, they aren’t a team we should be counting on to win by multiple scores.

The pick: Kansas City (+7)

Opening line: Arizona @ Seattle (-2.5)

Current line: Arizona @ Seattle (-3)

Are the Arizona Cardinals as good as we thought they were? Are the Seattle Seahawks as bad as their slow start suggested?

To start the year, the Cardinals won big three times but against suspect opponents. The Saints haven’t been able to play defense all year. The Bears at one point had a grasp on the race for the first overall pick in next year’s draft, as far as odds were concerned, and the San Francisco 49ers are a mess without Jim Harbaugh as the head coach.

Since then, the Cardinals have lost to the St. Louis Rams and Pittsburgh Steelers, quarterbacked by Nick Foles and Landry Jones, respectively. They have also beaten the Lions, Ravens and Browns, who have a combined record of 5-20 in 2015. Maybe we gave Arizona too much credit from the jump?

The Seahawks were competitive against the Packers, Rams, Bengals and Panthers, though they lost all four of those games. Given the opportunity, the Cardinals probably couldn’t make the same claim.

The Seahawks are favored by fewer than three points when they might be the better squad and the 12th Man is known for derailing away teams. A slight edge goes to Seattle this week underneath that key number. The boneheaded mistakes, like blown coverages, are starting to subside with the team, and after a bye week, the Seahawks should look sharper than ever.

The pick: Seattle (-2.5)

Opening line: Houston @ Cincinnati (-13)

Current line: Houston @ Cincinnati (-10.5)

Why were the Washington Redskins 14-point underdogs against the New England Patriots last week, a game the undefeated Patriots covered, but the Houston Texans are only 10.5-point dogs visiting Cincinnati for Monday Night Football?

Houston is coming off a bye week, but so was Washington last weekend. Both the Patriots and Bengals came off Thursday Night Football appearances before these set of games, too. This is the same game. Am I taking crazy pills?

Unless the Texans somehow managed to develop a quarterback during the bye week, I feel safe taking Cincinnati, despite it being a “public” bet to lay double digits. The Bengals’ undefeated streak continues as they essentially lock up the AFC North at midseason.

The pick: Cincinnati (-10.5)

1. Arizona @ Seattle (-2.5)
2. Kansas City (+7) @ Denver
3. Dallas @ Tampa Bay (+1)
4. New England @ New York (+8.5)
5. Chicago (+9) @ St. Louis

All lines courtesy of OddsShark.com.