NFL against the spread picks: Not time to panic on the Packers – Yahoo Sports (blog)
Because there are so few games, and we need something to talk about in the days between games, the NFL is ripe for overreactions.
The latest is over the Green Bay Packers.
Since the Packers lost two straight games, the common refrain this week has been “What’s wrong with Green Bay?” I’ve been asked some version of that question in just about every radio spot I’ve done this week. It’s one of the talking points before NFL’s Week 10 kicks off in full. And there are some things that should concern Packers fans, such as the defense giving up yards and points at a startling rate, the relative lack of weapons for Aaron Rodgers (the Packers are just 25th in the NFL in passing yards per game despite having the reigning MVP), the strange collapse of Eddie Lacy and why general manager Ted Thompson didn’t spend any of his $14.9 million in cap space on an outside free agent to help the roster. And it’s fair to point these things out; even very good teams have things to work on.
[Yahoo Daily Fantasy Football: First place wins $100K in our $500K contest for Week 10]
But let’s take a step back for a moment (I’m trying hard to avoid the R-E-L-A-X joke here).
The Packers played a Broncos team that was 6-0 and a Panthers team that was 7-0, both on the road. Neither performance was pretty, though the Packers were a fourth-and-goal completion from going for two to tie the Panthers last week. Most teams would have lost playing at Denver and at Carolina in consecutive weeks.
The Packers are still a very good team, especially at home and especially in this season’s NFL that has so few good teams. They can still win the NFC and could still win a Super Bowl. Having Rodgers ensures that. That’s why I’m taking the Packers giving 11.5 points to the Detroit Lions this week. Oddsmakers clearly aren’t completely down on the Packers, considering that line, and neither am I.
Here are the rest of the Week 10 NFL against the spread picks:
Bills (+2.5) over Jets (picked Thursday): Buffalo has a chance to get back in the wild-card mix. They are 5-2 when Tyrod Taylor starts at quarterback.
Titans (+4.5) over Panthers: In the Yahoo Pro Football Pick’em, 81 percent of people were taking the Panthers. Something is fishy with this line, and I’m not falling for the trap.
Bears (+7) over Rams: The Bears have been competitive after a terrible start to the season. The Rams still confuse me.
Dolphins (+6) over Eagles: Oddsmakers love the Eagles. They’ve been getting a couple points more than they should all season. I don’t know why.
Steelers (-4.5) over Browns: Landry Jones played well in the second half against Arizona, and made one big play to help beat the Raiders. Those games came at home. He struggled against the Chiefs. That was on the road. Maybe he can be competent in this home game (or, Ben Roethlisberger actually plays). If he is, I don’t think the Browns are offering much resistance these days.
Cowboys (+1) over Buccaneers: Tony Romo comes back next week. And the Cowboys have had a realistic shot to win five of the six games they’ve lost in a row. This feels like last call for Dallas if it is going to save its season.
Redskins (+1) over Saints: Washington struggles when Kirk Cousins turns the ball over. I’m not sure the Saints defense is good enough to force him into those mistakes.
Jaguars (+5.5) over Ravens: Quietly, Blake Bortles has turned into a solid quarterback. Not great yet. But good enough that Jacksonville can score some against a bad Baltimore defense.
Raiders (-3) over Vikings: Really fun game, and it could go either way. The Raiders showed a lot in last week’s loss, although they also showed their defense isn’t good enough yet. I figure Teddy Bridgewater plays, but it’s possible he’s not 100 percent.
Broncos (-6) over Chiefs: There’s been a ton of “The Chiefs are back in the wild-card race!” buzz. Why, because they beat a team quarterbacked by Landry Jones at home and then beat the Lions in London?
Patriots (-7.5) over Giants: I hate taking road favorites giving this many points, but I don’t really know how the Giants defense slows down New England.
Seahawks (-3) over Cardinals: Yep, still hanging onto the Seahawks being a good team. Not ready to pick against them at home yet.
Texans (+10.5) over Bengals: Line just seems a little too big.
Last week: 8-5
Season to date: 64-64-3
– – – – – – –
Frank Schwab is the editor of Shutdown Corner on Yahoo Sports. Have a tip? Email him at [email protected] or follow him on Twitter! Follow @YahooSchwab
- Sports & Recreation
- American Football
- Green Bay Packers
- NFL
This entry passed through the Full-Text RSS service – if this is your content and you’re reading it on someone else’s site, please read the FAQ at fivefilters.org/content-only/faq.php#publishers.
